Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 23/1/2017 07:36

Profit warnings from BMS and Safestyle, although I think both were largely anticipated.

$ now allegedly falling because of Trump.

[aleman] 22/1/2017 17:24

It wasn't me, jazz. old crow was heavily into PHP and MrP and Dean Forester gave it a passing mention.

[jazz319] 22/1/2017 16:56

Good afternoon gentlemen. Many moons ago before NFDS got swallowed up I lurked on this board (I was a holder at the time and made a few bob in the end) hoping to benefit from other subscibers expertise in research. I seem to remember it was Aleman who brought my attention to PHP. I bought some and then some more etc. and now have a reasonable holding. Just wondered if you still held. I can't find any reason to sell apart from boredom. I sleep easy with it, bank the divs. Just wondered if you were of the same mind. Nice to see the board still going and still a "nice friendly discussion shop"

[aleman] 22/1/2017 12:38

Trump deficits will be huge and the $ will tumble?





And another present for Trump:

Default rate on US mortgage backed securities accelerates in December.

[aleman] 22/1/2017 11:36

This seems quite a good summary of this Christmas's UK selling patterns (Note the very high returns rate on women's fashions):



More downward spin on the economy?



And corporate finances seem to be deteriorating.







So financial distress appears to be rising in oil and gas, engineering, manufacturing, recruitment, estate agencies, property, construction, retailing, food supply, and bars and restaurants. I presume we can add the car industry when higher car taxes hit and loan rates rise to cover slightly higher interest rates and significantly higher default rates. Otherwise, technical/tax changes in property, minimum wage increases and oil price rises seem to be the biggest factors - but I fancy the media mainly blame it on Brexit and Trump.

[aleman] 22/1/2017 10:37

Even we had -1.6C last night as the colder weather looks to have spread. No copmlaints as we have a bright start to the day and the sun is threatening to break out. I migh be able to get a couple of small outdoor jobs done.


Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 01/22/2017 at 10:00 UTC No. Location Station ID Amount
1 Farnborough (United Kingdom) 03768 -7.7°C
2 Benson (United Kingdom) 03658 -7.5°C
3 Northolt (United Kingdom) 03672 -7.2°C
4 Aboyne (United Kingdom) 03080 -7.1°C
5 Altnaharra (United Kingdom) 03044 -7.1°C
6 Gravesend-Broadness (United Kingdom) 03784 -6.8°C
7 Charlwood (United Kingdom) 03769 -6.6°C
8 Odiham (United Kingdom) 03761 -6.1°C
9 Bournemouth Airport (United Kingdom) 03862 -5.9°C
10 Marham (United Kingdom) 03482 -5.7°C
11 Rothamsted (United Kingdom) 03680 -5.7°C
12 Loch Glascarnoch (United Kingdom) 03031 -5.6°C
13 Middle Wallop (United Kingdom) 03749 -5.6°C
14 Wattisham (United Kingdom) 03590 -5.6°C
15 Shoeburyness (United Kingdom) 03693 -5.5°C
Script courtesy of Michael Holden of Relay Weather. Data courtesy of Ogimet

[deanforester] 21/1/2017 22:43

Highest temperature today has been -2°C although frost has melted in the sun.

Another cold morning tomorrow, by the look of it.

DF

[skinny] 21/1/2017 13:40

Good Afternoon.

A lovely bright blue Sunny day here and feling warm in the Sun - but in the shade the frost persists - I moved a couple of 8' x 6" decking boards in the garden just now and they were firmly frozen together.

Hmmmm -

[wllmherk] 21/1/2017 13:26

Not a good week for my stocks with LRE, TALK and DLG doing the damage.


wllm

[pvb] 21/1/2017 12:29

freddie ferret 20 Jan '17 - 17:24 - 41850 of 41855
Posted elsewhere.

Classic BBC reporting: on the news that retail sales were up 4.3% in December 2016 compared to last year - Headline: "UK retail sales fall sharply in December"


I really don't see the 'problem' with that report, freddie. One (+4.3%), was a year on year figure. The other (-1.9%), was a month on month comparison. So?

[aleman] 21/1/2017 12:22

We had 0.6C last night and have reverted to greyness this morning. It look sto have been pretty chilly down south again.


Minimum Temperature Last 24h - 01/21/2017 at 12:00 UTC No. Location Station ID Amount
1 Farnborough (United Kingdom) 03768 -8.1°C
2 Odiham (United Kingdom) 03761 -7.6°C
3 Aboyne (United Kingdom) 03080 -7.1°C
4 Bournemouth Airport (United Kingdom) 03862 -6.9°C
5 Benson (United Kingdom) 03658 -6.2°C
6 Yeovilton (United Kingdom) 03853 -6°C
7 Hereford/Credenhill (United Kingdom) 03522 -5.7°C
8 Charlwood (United Kingdom) 03769 -5.4°C
9 Shobdon (United Kingdom) 03520 -4.8°C
10 Altnaharra (United Kingdom) 03044 -4.5°C
11 Gravesend-Broadness (United Kingdom) 03784 -4.4°C
12 Kinloss (United Kingdom) 03066 -4.4°C
13 Dunkeswell Aerodrome (United Kingdom) 03840 -4.3°C
14 Shawbury (United Kingdom) 03414 -4.3°C
15 Pershore (United Kingdom) 03529 -4.2°C






I see you all have noticed a possible change of spin in reporting.

I found the retail sales figures odd. They were inflated a bit by fuel sales up 15% on the year (even bigger rises earlier in the year) but were still fairly strong despite that. The weakness comes after a large downward seasonal adjustment, which I am struggling with. Everybody shops 24/7 now so how do they get a big reduction of about 5% through seasonal adjustment for an extra trading day?

I get the feeling Brexit and Trump are not popular with media types and it might be influencing coverage. Here we have another present for Trump. It's funny that massively higher default rates - maybe $200bn worth - only get noticed as Trump gets sworn in. (Recall I expressed no preference for the US election.)

[deanforester] 21/1/2017 11:42

They did here, -6°C outside our back door this morning, +2°C on the car thermometer inside the garage, with the boiler having been going for over an hour, and -7°C on the car thermometer at the lowest point of the lane, en route to Tesco at 8am.

I've just been for a walk to the Village and back. There are one or two patches of very high cloud to the NE, but very little wind and the ground is as hard as iron where the sun hasn't shone.

DF

[blueliner] 21/1/2017 10:48

Morning, well the blue skies didn't last long.

Yesterday down £89.61 and the week -0.7%
Folio YTD +1.95%

Very little to report on the past week, most holdings were down ,8 stocks were unchanged, NXG was the best of a poor bunch of risers with the share price +5%, but have only a lower end holding.
Both Funds in the ISA are making little headway at present, Woodford has been explaining to the media his dilemma and the 'Trump Bubble' that has hit his strategy.
Meanwhile Terry Smith has transferred zillions of Fundsmith Equity profits to an island in the India Ocean.
Funds Network +34%, but has been hovering in this zone for some time now.

Quiz, ditto for me DF.

Penny for Hillary Clintons thoughts during DJT's inaugaral speech.

[deanforester] 20/1/2017 20:39

4/7 for me. First 4 were fine, then it went downhill.

I'm down -0.373% on the day today (FTSE100 -0.139%), down -2.77% on the week (FTSE100 -1.90%) and down -0.98% YTD, but FTSE100 up -0.78% and HIX +0.50%.

Worst falls: S32 -3.27%, AZN -2.11% and TSCO -1.85%.

Best rises: BT.A +1.31%, RDSB +1.04% and IMI +0.94%.

Pearson was my problem this week. Trump made a stirring speech. Can he deliver?

Nice pub lunch today at the Red Lion in Lindfield. 8 of us there.

Another cold morning awaits, I fancy.

Enjoy the wekend and wrap up warm.

DF

[mrphil] 20/1/2017 17:32

Figures are great aren't they. Classic example of glass half empty!

Not a great week all around for the investments, with falls all around SIPP -1.53%, pot -1.51% and Virgin ISA -0.41% but at least two are all still positive YTD, SIPP +1.08% and Virgin ISA +0.74% but sadly the pot has succumbed.

Feel a bit guilty down South with all this glorious sunshine we've been enjoying, really don't mind sharing it!

Enjoy your weekends.

MrP

[freddie ferret] 20/1/2017 17:24

Posted elsewhere.

Classic BBC reporting: on the news that retail sales were up 4.3% in December 2016 compared to last year - Headline: "UK retail sales fall sharply in December"

[freddie ferret] 20/1/2017 17:16

Not so cold yesterday evening.
Quite a good day for me today for no obvious reason. One is just a shave off one bagging.

Trump is the start of a new era, hopefully he sticks to his guns. Expect a lot of deregulation. I'm happier than I have been for decades but still have doubts about May.

[skinny] 20/1/2017 17:11

My SIPP finished down £27.57p, -1.28% on the week and is +0.57% YTD.

Another cold night forecast.

Enjoy your weekend.

[aleman] 20/1/2017 17:08

-0.6%. YTD -2.2%. A poor start to the year but maybe not so bad when allowing for that tax payment and a couple of ex-dividends.

I had a go at the gym but I am still struggling with the cold. That's two weeks missed and 3 weeks I've done poorly on the stamina front.

The sun came out to play for a couple of hours but only late on when it was weakening and it brought with it a chilly breeze. The high was 7.3C but it is dropping off quickly and looks set to freeze. Hopefully it will stay clear and we will see some midday warmth tomorrow. I would imagine it will be a nice day if you wrap up a bit.

Have a good weekend, all.

[mrphil] 20/1/2017 16:32

Hope the Trump inauguration goes smoothly.

[aleman] 20/1/2017 16:28

Sales of alcohol, other beverages and tobacco rose 17% last year. Did Brexit drive us to drink?

[mrphil] 20/1/2017 15:00

Looks like some of the managed funds have done OK this week but overall they are down a bit, although not by as much as the individual shares so the SIPP should remain in positive territory, although the same can't be said of the pot.

[mrphil] 20/1/2017 14:42

The usual 2/7 for me and I actually knew one of those!

Just did my bit for the fuel retailers, filled up the Jag ready for a trip to the New Forest over the weekend, not far but I topped up in case we go for a run through the forest. Got a bit frustrated in the garage - having already waited for several minutes, I decided to let a new arrival in front (she seemed pleasant enough) and then (after ages) finally went for a gap at the furthest pump only to find it didn't have the fancy diesel so I had to wait for the guy behind to finish. Then of course as soon as he moved, another car came straight in off the road and pinched the space before I could reverse! So I gave up and just put the standard stuff in.

The SIPP is hovering just the wrong side of the line at the moment so I'm not confident of a positive week - unless the managed funds have performed well.

I see PETS is falling a bit further so yes blueliner, please pop in and buy some more nuts!

[aleman] 20/1/2017 14:02

December retail drops abruptly.





Traffic was quiet coming home from the quiz again last night, with a particular reduction in HGVs noted. Traffic of late is only about half the peak of last summer and autumn. Traffic fell to about 1/10th as high fuel costs drove us into the last recession so the swings at the marginal travel times are very high. You may recall I first noticed traffic not being quite so busy at the start of December. Coincidence or not?

UK fuel retailers sales fell for the first time in 2 1/4 years in December.