Northbridge Industrial S... Share Discussion Threads

[annieb1] 23/10/2015 12:26

I phoned Buchanan yesterday.This news announcement about no material change in circumstances is the result of my call concerning the alarming drop in the price of the Nbi share it would appear. Hopefully the drop is over but a massive loss seems out of all proportion to the recent board comments. Bank covenants are the major worry. Let us be optimistic that the board are in control and telling the truth.

[the millipede] 22/10/2015 23:00

I guess today's announcement at least confirms trading has not got worse since the interims?

Still watching...... am surprised to see the share price fall so quickly from 120p ish...... as a turnaround play this does not seem crazy, but it didn't seem crazy at 120p and it still dropped to 80p!

And how dependent on the oil price is this? I know we can all have a view but mine is we will still be sat around $50 in the middle of next year, perhaps having visited somewhere far lower in the meantime. But if the reason for that price is over supply why will NBI have problems renting out their equipment?

[smithie6] 22/10/2015 16:52

Looking heavily oversold.....with no new news....so there are chances of a bounce imo...

Any chance that dirs will get their wallets out & buy some shares ??

(PS .
Bit slow...to see RNS ref. movement in share price ....'no known reason...no change in trading from prev. news'.....

will today's dip below 80p be a once only or will it be re-visited in future...?

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Chairman and MD have a few quid....but not buying so far...which seems a bit unusual perhaps after massive % fall in share price in the last year..)

[smithie6] 22/10/2015 15:01

..or even in 9 months in 2015...

A reminder of risks of shares..

[bookbroker] 22/10/2015 13:09

Anyone holding this, a precipitous fall in eighteen months!

[the millipede] 22/10/2015 07:46

Bookbroker, FWIW google the Goldman Sachs podcasts and listen to their views on oil in "The New World Order" or "Lower for Longer."

One of their contentions is that while US shale oil exists the Saudis are unable to control the oil price - basically because any cut in production and rise in price will see very quickly an increase in shale production.

Ie the cartel no longer works and the only rational strategy for them is to move to 100% production to protect market share, which is what the Saudis have done.

If that analysis is right then the Saudis will not cut production until significant US shale production has been taken out of the market..... and even then it will be easy to restart shale wells if the price rises because of the very short time it takes to get them up and running.

Worth a look anyway. Cheers, TM

[smithie6] 21/10/2015 20:03

..interesting watching oil prices....the recent/previous bounce ( speculators buying) to 50$ has slowly fallen back to where it was 45$

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NBI

The big fish dont think its a buy..imho..otherwise they would be...!!

[bookbroker] 21/10/2015 16:51

Covenant issues, and the likely cash raising, still no end in sight to collapse in oil prices, Saudi's themselves are going to start squealing soon, and a very restless population might just do the trick and raise prices through civil unrest!

[pugugly] 21/10/2015 14:33

Selling pressure picking up again after a bit of attempted bottom fishing - Smithie I fear you may be right.

Edit at 3:05pm Still falling offer now 90p with buys going through below and bid 87.

Either news leaking of low ball rights issue - say similar dicount to the recent Redhall offer, (remember this was at 50% or previous days trading levels) or massive margin squeeze or major holder decided to get out at any cost

If the latter then VERY significant further falls possible with might produce PI panic selling which could generate a self feeding whirlpool

[smithie6] 21/10/2015 12:33

...3 sells each of over 10k shares each..before 10:30...

Worrying/unusual imho...

Does someone know something ?

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Debt/covenants/oil at 45$...Asia & Auz slow down due to China...not pretty

BoD screwed up imho in the planning/looking ahead

[my retirement fund] 10/10/2015 09:17

Still puki bile I see

[the millipede] 09/10/2015 09:23

I think it is interesting that revenue has not exactly fallen off a cliff here, in fact Crestchic UK&EU saw a fairly sizeable increase in revenue, perhaps underlying just how awfully the recently acquired businesses have performed.

But compare 2015 interims with those two years ago and you find overall revenue is broadly the same. What has changed in the meantime is (1) cash has been spent, and shares issued, to acquire new businesses and (2) cost of sales and operating costs have increased hugely, even if you ignore the exceptional charge for 2015.

To me what this says is that if they can get the cost base down there is likely to be a profitable business here, even in this tough environment. That said, if the only way to maintain revenue is to go on an expensive acquisition spree that destroys shareholder value........ Hopefully one consequence of the downturn will be they focus on the businesses they have now, rather than trying to buy new ones.

[countryman5] 07/10/2015 17:23

APR up on bid speculation

[hybrasil] 07/10/2015 15:47

I think Smithie6 that you are probably being a tad pessimistic.
Certainly in the short term you may be right but I see these as a rather longer term play.

[smithie6] 07/10/2015 15:40

...but !!

That reported Asset value is imo not 'real world'

Reduction of existing hire kit value of 10% in accounts since last year....(depreciation)

But

with oil going from 100$ to 50$ it has hit activity levels...as we know....collapse of Russian oil funded economy etc..

And NBI laid off staff as result....

.the real fall in kit value is much higher imho than 10%

So the real NAV is also much lower..

I expect value write downs in next accounts...

..and if reduce kit value to real world value...then the size of the bank debt ( 18M ?) in relative terms becomes bigger......imho they screwed up buying kit at same time as oil rice collapsed.....and agreeing in 2014 to buy more for 2015
At present they have a big problem paying down that debt...

[hybrasil] 07/10/2015 14:37

It all depends on how good the accountants are. If you strip out intangibles now trading at less than asset value.

[hybrasil] 05/10/2015 14:58

gone out in sympathy with hargreaves!

[smithie6] 01/10/2015 11:34

Laid off more staff since end June..a fair chunk..so dirs. expect business to get worse imho

[smithie6] 01/10/2015 11:28

......sidestepping the directors blurb in the results...( which are not true imo.....as always for uk co. reporting)...

The co. has made a complete mess of it....

Steamed into a massive sector downturn and imo ignored it and the oil price fall.....and continued to spend a lot on new kit and agreed to buy more in 2015...increasing debt and hence risk..

Reading the RNS of 3rd Feb shows how the MD Eric Hook was still investing in new kit and confident !!....yet the oil price had collapsed !!....amazing that an experienced MD could have been so.....stupid....and blind....

(Directors are there to plan ahead....and direct.....they...he !!... failed....and hence should have perhaps left.not the FD...or both....and MD should not be on mega pay...since failed in planning and directing....and that is what he gets paid to do......if a worker failed in his role he would be sacked..or demoted...)

And not cutting costs until had no choice..instead of planning ahead...proof being that they cut more costs after end June 2015....despite them writing that they cut costs quickly !...oil price fall was in 2014 !!...x months ago..

So..clear reminder of risks of shares....and that..even experienced dirs. can mess up....and that things outside of co. control can hit any company...

( if sector picks up in x years...if....then perhaps wont be able to expand...since up to neck in debt...and mention of bank covenents....so banks unlikely to lend them any more...)

[smithie6] 30/9/2015 21:39

...but important to note imo that they are non execs.....they are only there once every two ? months.....to hear a summary of progress wrt the plan.....they are not doing financial work or divisional supervision...and if the MD does the FD role ..then there is no one doing the MD role..


Could argue that the FD had to leave since financially the co. has steamed in to a financial hole.....and ditching someone might appease the institutes....( but imo not his fault.....the decision makers would have been the MD ( over aggressive for growth perhaps) and the chairman....they are the 2 sector experts on the board....they would have pushed to keep buying new kit.....( but if hadnt..then EPS growth would have stopped... & share price would have fallen.....so they kept buying....(but now paying the price, the debt hitting the share price imo)

If needed I guess they might consider the prev. part time FD taking up that role again.....now a non exec.

( bank covenent meetings...bank might not be happy with co. fin. resp. at meetings being such a young person with no FD experience at all.!!

....if close to banking limits then the bank can tell co. what to do wrt FD role)