North Atlantic Smaller C... Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 08/6/2023 16:18

A proper FTSE250 tracker that doesn't buy will automatically introduce their own tracking error.

It will be interesting to see what happens and anyone expecting new demand to arrive, and the NAV discount to close, might make a few bob buying now. Index tracking money that tracks accurately based on market cap has no choice but to buy.

[p1nkfish] 08/6/2023 14:03

It is and some etfs have to buy to track = demand.

[cousinit] 08/6/2023 13:47

The free float used for the index inclusion could be quite low (given how many shares are held by Christopher Mills) so that could limit any buying. Not all index funds include ITs and others don't fully replicate the index/accept small deviations.

I'm surprised that something this illiquid has been included in mainstream indices.

[p1nkfish] 08/6/2023 09:49

Conservative NAV is about £48.

[p1nkfish] 08/6/2023 09:45

Watched the YouTube voxmarkets interview just now. Some points........

1) Valuations conservative, off which NAV is based,
2) NAS in entering FTSE250 with first trades on 19th June,
3) NAS is illiquid,
4) Index trackers (VMIDD etc) will allocate funds according to market cap.

What do you think will happen as forced allocations arrive into NAS regularly?
With such illiquidity I think the discount to NAV will lessen, price rise, probably in short order.
It might give Mills a chance to "harvest" some cash himself to increase market supply and distribute shares?

From where I sit I see a relatively short order uptick in price as likely, by order mean a month or 2. A chance of 10%+ upside. May run to high 40's as trackers will have to buy???

NAS is looking to divest some holdings for cash reserves, ready to go hunting when market rolls over again.

I can see this running up towards £48 in say 3 months, about 20% for a CAGR of about 60%.

I am often wrong, dyor, etc.

Anyone have any input on this idea?

[p1nkfish] 13/5/2023 00:04

I forgot, buybacks to reduce discount might be a convenient way for Mills to sell down some when retired without totally trashing the stock price.

[steve3sandal] 12/5/2023 22:36

Hmm. BBS not yet a priority. It suggests to me that he isn’t for selling his unless around NAV. I’ll be hanging onto mine. I suspect there will be family succession given son Nick is an investment director? on some of the vehicles.
Not the greatest year for NAS smaller caps, who has, but there is the usual confidence in positions and exit valuations. I’d expect NAV to hit £60 one day and they can probably keep getting more right than wrong.

[p1nkfish] 12/5/2023 21:25

So until retirement don't prioritise buybacks?
Might he be less than confident any succesor will make investment decisions of sufficient quality?
Possibly, he enjoys the investment process?

[steve3sandal] 12/5/2023 20:56

I thought this was interesting in todays Jan 23 FY report.

Your directors are frustrated by the ongoing discount to net asset value that the Company trades on despite the fact that it is significantly lower than many other funds which have large holdings in private equity and other large holdings of illiquid stocks. Our share buyback programme will hopefully reduce this discount over time but this comes at the expense of making our own shares more illiquid which in turn adversely impacts the discount. Your directors also believe it is important to continue to make new investments and, where appropriate, continue to support existing ones as we are firmly of the belief that this will add more value than buying back shares over the longer term. Nevertheless, at Mr Mills' retirement, which is not an issue for the foreseeable future, he has requested that the Board prioritises share buy backs over new investments until such time as the shares trade at a very modest discount to net asset value.

[steve3sandal] 30/4/2023 22:41

NAS don’t have a shareholding in Rockwood. Harwood Llp (owned by C Mills). manage both trusts. Harwood has 28.9% of RKW and Richard Staveley who manages RKW on behalf of Harwood and owns 1%. I’ve just noted that Nick Mills son of Chris is joint manager of both NAS and RKW in addition to Oryx noted above. Heir apparent then. Happy to have them in my corner but not a top 10 holding as I can’t see the discount closing.

[topvest] 30/4/2023 21:03

Its in the Annual Report. They do own a large chunk of Oryx and Odyssean, but not Rockwood if I remember correctly. 2023 annual report will be out in May I believe.

[mozy123] 25/4/2023 22:34

Is the full NAS portfolio available anywhere is it closely guarded?

Does NAS own any rockwood trust for example?

[p1nkfish] 21/4/2023 13:08

Sureserve sale, heading towards having £120M cash and equivalents. Decent fire power to hand.

[loglorry1] 11/4/2023 14:08

8 out of 10 cats becoming Lions I can live with even if the other 2 flea bag moggies get put down at the vets.

[topvest] 07/4/2023 20:46

Christopher Mills is certainly not past it in my view. He's always had a 8 out of 10 ish score card. Most of his investments are very good. The odd 10-20% of investments go wrong. Fulcrum was one. He's not a god! Overall, the record is superb.

[p1nkfish] 06/4/2023 08:05

Certainly dropped the ball on FCRM so far. Playing 2nd fiddle to Bayford in a poorly run business. Very hard if not impossible to turn that into a success story.

[loglorry1] 30/3/2023 17:47

Dripped a bit more in today. Bargain prices maybe? Time will tell. Not a lot of point buying an investment trust unless you are prepared to trust the investment manager. Mills has a lot of his own money in here so that's good.

Rockwood has had a great early start let's hope NAS can do the same.

[chillpill] 29/3/2023 20:12

It does require greater transparency but I am happy to take it as it is. Their performance speaks for itself. I listened to CM a few months ago and he is very much positioning the portfolio for a higher interest rate environment.

I am a long term follower having first invested in 2008 and then again in 2011. It’s done me well but does require patience.

[mozy123] 29/3/2023 11:26

Plenty of talent at Harwood. Mills, Stuart and ED at OIT, Richard at RKW.

Not to mention the private equity team.

Discount will never narrow materially, with over 30% of the float with insiders.

Happy holding and have been adding on weakness.

13+% compounded since the 80's. He can have a portion of my funds.

[p1nkfish] 29/3/2023 11:22

Opportunity cost and zero momentum.
Momentum is driving a hell of a lot of money flow.

[spectoacc] 29/3/2023 09:23

FCRM a fiasco, but at least tiny in the scheme of things.

Other problem NAS has is that HL tell me the one year avg discount c.28%, current discount c.34%. But look at everything else - look a the renewable ITs, the infrastructure ones, the REITs. The market's moved, it has recognised the end of 14 years of ZIRP, and a great deal of adjustment is happening.

Is NAS "cheap", in that context? Or does Opportunity Cost drag money elsewhere, even without recent missteps/eventual succession?

[spectoacc] 29/3/2023 08:54

Uplift to NAV would be the triumph of hope over experience surely - and what happens when it's Mills Junior, is he as good?

Just putting the opposing view - good luck.

[chillpill] 29/3/2023 08:51

Added to my existing holding here. NAV over £52 so big discount to current price of £34.50 so 33% discount. Simple maths but an uplift to NAV means a 50% return. One of the biggest holdings seems to have bottomed out.

[chillpill] 20/12/2022 08:43

I’m not a dissenting shareholder but whilst I like the fact they have been buying back their own shares I do agree there should be better transparency. It’s all a bit 1980’s.

I am a big fan of Christopher Mills.