North Atlantic Smaller C... Share Discussion Threads

[apple53] 27/12/2021 08:43

Just realised my post just after NAS announced the NAV didn't stick:
QUOTE: Renalytix a bit of a shock I guess; makes the massive buyback look unfortunately timed. End Nov NAV down almost 4% to £61.1 (despite buyback impact). Not losing faith, but not really looking to add. A whole bunch of trusts with c. 30% upside to realtime NAV, though I am always interested to hear Spartacus' latest estimate, and whether there is any offset to the continued drop in renalytix.

[apple53] 24/12/2021 22:06

Interesting comments.
I was very close to top-slicing a large position, then the buybacks restarted. Really bad luck that renalytix' price collapsed, and the discount has barely moved despite the falling NAS price, so neither buying nor selling at present.

Strath- any idea how big frcm and eskn were? Surely nothing to rival renx? (I have been tempted to buy it separately so would have loved some commentary. Up 14% in 5 days....)

I think it is great he does these interviews. His portfolio knowledge gives me great confidence. I am more convinced that he will perform than classic small-mid cap managers chasing games workshop after it went up 10 fold. I could buy one or two directly. He enjoys it but it is indeed a bit altruistic. It might move the price of some of the stocks, especially if it builds a bigger following.

He has been in this game a long time so his relative certainty about EBITDA multiples surprises me (eg on a restaurant business). Such multiples are not set in stone- big pharma used to trade on 20x PEs and that pretty much halved in a decade. Mediterranean retail banks for 15x and that went to 10 even before the financial crisis, etc. Nonetheless I think there is enough upside in most cases even if you cut the multiple targets by 2 points.

I also note his confidence that several of the names will be taken private. This is the flip side of my caution that too much PE money is chasing too few targets. Also that he stripped out the cost of being listed for at least one name to get an underlying profitability.

[loglorry1] 24/12/2021 18:49

He does it to a) ramp his one book b) keep investors invested c) attract new buyers to support the price.

I'm relaxed that he knows wbat he is doing in this space amd has had very good multiyear returns. Also loads of his own skin in the game.

Liked his caution. We've had a good run, US markets high on most metrics like CAPE, taxes both corp and personal increasing and obviously rates and inflation presure. If anything I find him a bit too bullish but he has to be I suppose.

[p1nkfish] 24/12/2021 11:50

It might be altruistic to give small fry some info, background and tips as Mills has made his bundle already and most people like to be invited to expound on what they are good at so he gets that opportunity too.

I enjoy listening to the thinking process. Interviewer could do better by calming down and not shouting.

Wider share ownership can help instil a more entrepreneurial thinking in folk too and I think Mills is very pro that sort of thing.

Buying will feed through to Oryx, NAS, Harwood and help close portfolio valuation gaps quicker than waiting for fundamentals to do it.

Glad to hear Mills speak.

[strathroyal] 24/12/2021 10:42

I'm not so sure CM found 2021 quite as easy as some suggest. Yes, the likes of AUG and ASTO did extraordinarily well but on the otherhand FCRM and ESKN have been dreadful investments and the podcast quite noticeably didn't give FCRM a mention.

I've been interested in NAS for a number of years but I can't say that I understand why he puts out these podcasts with what appears to be a sycophantic host.

[p1nkfish] 24/12/2021 09:48

NAS returning cash via buyback would be one option but that's limited by the outcome of the last vote from what I can see - look at RNS from yesterday.

[p1nkfish] 24/12/2021 09:47

I totally agree China but external shocks can hit and lead to sell-offs.
The child tax credit end in US along with their tightening will be "interestng".
I can't see any decent sell-off in the US not washing up on UK shores.

I hold NAS and no intention of selling, it's a good basket. Not so sure about individual shares though looking at the run up that has occurred. A bit of a shake would be no surprise.

[chinahere] 24/12/2021 00:52

2020-21 has been easy after the pandemic, but I reckon UK stocks are still cheap going into 2022.

Christopher Mills knows what he is doing here as far as I can tell and the discount to NAV in NAS makes me happier. Some earlier buybacks may look stupid, but in the long run they can't be stupid if the buy price is always under the NAV.

On a similar note. There are loads of people that are hanging around on SPAC type investments thinking that their unknown new investment company will make money for them. Totally crazy I reckon!!

We have here a successfully proven manager with a trust that is trading at 20% or more under the NAV.

This is much better IMHO.

[p1nkfish] 23/12/2021 23:54

He does make it clear next year probably won't have as easy pickings. The share price currently agrees and any limit on the buyback won't help support the price. The issue with these types of interviews is the manager talking their own book and although all the stocks mentioned have merits, again, it looks like easy pickings have been taken.

2022 won't be a repeat of 2021. Granted the companies mentioned look solid with growth but I'm of the opinion there could be a better time to enter some in the next 3-9 months. Currently they have seasonality and exuberance on side.

It's interesting NAS are sitting on so much cash after the AUG event. Do they think there could be a better time ahead to allocate - at lower prices?

I hold NAS, have sold none since building a holding a few years back, and look forward to £50+. I just don't see 2022 being as easy as the past March 2020 period we have just been through.

Looked at the TA on all the companies mentioned.

[apple53] 23/12/2021 23:31

Thanks Dave.
Very interesting. It's always tempting to co-invest in a couple of these. I don't find Curtis Banks quite as cheap as he does, but almost everything else I'm not qualified to comment on.
I would love to know why no discussion of renalytix.
Secure Trust should be up his street but maybe he avoids proper banks.

[p1nkfish] 19/11/2021 13:45

Excellent. Eating their own cooking.
More value here than many other places.

[p1nkfish] 19/11/2021 13:45

Interesting to see what happens when it is finally through 50 GBP.

[spartacus mills] 19/11/2021 13:36

Largest ever share repurchase by NAS announced this morning.

170,00 shares at £49 each. £8.3m in total.

Against a running NAV of`c. £62.50 this adds c. £2.3m or 22p per share to NAV.

Good to see Mills move aggressively given the persistent discount and the large cash pile

[apple53] 15/11/2021 12:16

Thanks mw.
I wonder what Spartacus' spreadsheet is saying. Oryx is obviously the big negative, though it has bounced somewhat, and it has taken advantage of its discount to buyback stock. To be fair I never really understood why its discount shrank to almost zero when NAS sits where it is.
Polar and Renalytix are both up materially since end Sep.

I'm guessing real-time (NOT end Oct) NAV around £63.5-64.

[mw8156] 11/11/2021 23:03

apple,
it's antler holdco, the holding co for ii admittedly, you're correct, only a £3-4m entry in the last annual report.
oryx also has a stake, though so economic exposure is higher,
all this offset to an extent by the fall in gyg in the last several days,

[apple53] 11/11/2021 11:14

Thanks mw8156.
I think I vaguely knew (was it mentioned in the Chris Mills interview?). Checking back to the annual report which had the top 20 holdings end Jan it wasn't mentioned, so unless he's built it up more recently, I guess it is/was below £10m.

[p1nkfish] 10/11/2021 10:25

GHS look like keeping Harwood for run-off period and probably needing to find homes for the likes of ULS, VAN, FLO, RPS, CAU, NBI, PRES. Strange state of affairs and might be some decent picking for NAS, Oryx?? Who knows, worht keeping an eye in though for interest.

[mw8156] 08/11/2021 19:16

has a stake in interactive investor.

[p1nkfish] 15/10/2021 20:39

Potential shenanigans at Gresham.

Htps://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/GHS/announcement-re-strategic-review-and-requisition/15176255

[p1nkfish] 12/10/2021 07:47

They already split holdings amongst trusts.

[ceaserxzy] 11/10/2021 22:25

Chris Mills holding over 26% of nas is the best assurance that you can ask for that nas interest won't be compromised.

[topvest] 11/10/2021 21:39

It is positive as it gives Harwood more firing power. Often Oryx and NASCIT hold the same stock. I hold Gresham House Strategic and am also a shareholder in Gresham House which I think is a good investment manager. However, in my view Harwood are better. Why? Because they have about the best value record in the small cap space through their activist and entrepeneurial style. Gresham House are good for up to 10% returns per annum, but Harwood are good for > 10% per annum in my view.