Nichols Share Discussion Threads

[disneydonald] 07/12/2021 00:48

Steady as she goes, 2021 preliminary in around five weeks. The market seems to acknowledge that results will beat consensus, which should help move the share price further forward.

[philanderer] 03/12/2021 19:02

Heard nothing , but best one in my portfolio today :-)

[cwa1] 03/12/2021 16:14

Pleasantly perky today. Anyone seen/heard anything? Tipped?

[cwa1] 30/11/2021 11:51

Just tried a dummy buy and sell on NICL. Buy at 1315 and sell at 1277.25. So 37.85p spread. Which on a 1315p buying price represents about a 3% spread

[justiceforthemany] 23/11/2021 14:00

Spread seems to get larger by the day...

[philanderer] 23/11/2021 13:51

Questor: Nichols is gently starting to regain a little fizz so we’ll hold on to recoup our losses

Questor share tip: our advice to buy the soft drinks company has lumbered readers with a 13pc loss so far but patience should pay off

[justiceforthemany] 15/11/2021 15:00

More evidence of large share price moves on tiny volume

[disneydonald] 15/11/2021 13:38

Just musing the new dividend policy (2X), in the light of recent trading update and FY guidance (£21m - £22m) for 2021. Fist half PBT was ~£8.6, adjusted earnings of ~19p/share giving a dividend (2X) of 9.8p. FY 2021 PBT guidance is for £21m - £22m, so all things being equal (which they may not be :-) ) that would indicate a FY 2021 final dividend of ~ 50% higher than the interim. I get that at ~£15p.

If we calculate 2022 given guidance at £25m PBT, we should be looking at around an additional 10% over 2021, a total for 2022 of 27 - 28p.

This rate of dividend growth (albeit more conservative than previously), should help boost the share price. Also, notwithstanding potential expenditure on M & A, the cash on books should be ~ £60m end 2021, and possibly £80m end 2022. If no M & A activity then possibility for a special distribution to shareholders (with dividend or buy back). Either way things are perking up.

[justiceforthemany] 11/11/2021 09:38

Very strange volume/trades today

[essentialinvestor] 10/11/2021 10:15

top vest, off topic - absolute quality recent call on RIV, congrats.

[disneydonald] 09/11/2021 22:14

Topvest. I agree. Not sure that Barr's products could be exploited outside the UK through NICL's distribution network. I would prefer to see NICL push harder to develop its established markets, which would require marketing expenses and possibly new distributor arrangements for Africa.

Also, I would imagine that the US should have some potential to better target the ex-pat community. They currently deal via a Chicago based distributor who targets these sectors (Middle East, African and to a lessor extend the Brits). Maybe a concentrated push with this distributor would help develop sales further. I have seen Vimto in some specialist food stores in the US myself.

Of course, not forgetting the UK market. Increasing brand awareness should create more opportunities to develop the product here. Again requires marketing expenditure.

Having said that I would also like NICL to consider some form of capital restructure to increase liquidity. Maybe a share split coupled with a share buy back programme to use some of the excess cash on the balance sheet. That should help the share price.

Either way, I see NICL as a good long term investment. I feel that there is more chance of them being taken private via an agreed PE deal, than a takeover unless Suntory come knocking. I doubt that Bitvic deal would clear the monopolies commission due to Robinson's current market share. Off the top of my head Robinson's (Britvic) ~%40, NICL ~14% and Ribena %8 (Suntory) UK market share would create a behemoth in UK soft drinks.

[topvest] 07/11/2021 20:22

I hold both. They are more valuable on their own I suspect. Always the chance of an offer from Coca-Cola, Pepsi or Britvic etc at some point, but would be happy to see them stay independent. They have both had a sideways move in share price for 5+ years but should resume shareholder value creation at some point soon. I guess Covid-19 and sugar tax etc. have been bid headwinds in this period. Both quality companies. Vimto has better growth potential in my view as international sales are so strong in the Middle East.

[justiceforthemany] 06/11/2021 16:24

AG Barr currently trading on a slightly lower multiple. Holding both. Merger makes sense - let's see - both net cash position.

Even with markets at record highs telecoms sector particularly Vodafone not far off pandemic lows: gold plays CEY and PAF look good value: Victrex has the best balance sheet I have seen and must be a strong chance of M&A there. Directline worth a look too IMO.

[philanderer] 06/11/2021 00:48

Daily Mail:

Stock Watch - Nichols

Nichols, the maker of Vimto soft drinks, popped higher after upgrading its full-year profit forecasts.

Revenue in the nine months to the end of September increased 17 per cent to £107million, ahead of the company's expectations, as demand for its beverages continued to recover from the pandemic.

As a result, profits for the full year were expected to be ahead of market predictions and between £21million and £22million, although Nichols – which has been making soft drinks since 1908 – warned the following year could be hit by rising inflation.

The shares fizzed up 6.7 per cent, or 75p, to 1200p.

[disneydonald] 05/11/2021 22:50

NICL do have a habit of reporting what many consider as not significant in the wider view. I have learned not to worry about these ruminations, however, the market does sometimes take these to heart and they can act as a drag on the share price. They are just very conservative, I guess.

[essentialinvestor] 05/11/2021 16:19

That's twice they have referenced costs, the last report had a line about
the BOD studying the implication of cost inflation.

[essentialinvestor] 05/11/2021 16:02

You don't say!!.

[justiceforthemany] 05/11/2021 15:35

This is a stock that moves a lot on very little volume.

[km18] 05/11/2021 14:01

Nichols plc, the maker of Vimto, issued a trading update this morning. Group revenue for the period was ahead of the Board's expectations, increasing by 17% year on year to £107m, while the Vimto brand has continued to deliver a strong performance across all of its markets. International revenues increased 36% versus the prior year and the Board provided some positive guidance, now expecting adjusted PBT for FY21 to be in the range of £21m - £22m. Profit expectations for FY22 remain unchanged with PBT expected at £25.2m. While not yet back to pre-Covid peaks, the business is recovering solidly. Valuation is average, but the company is high quality with plenty of cash, negligible debt and EPS should grow solidly in FY21 and FY22. Main drawback, the share price lacks momentum over the past few years, and dividend yield is modest. Solid, if unspectacular. One to monitor for now...keep up to date with stocks with WealthOracleAM

[philanderer] 05/11/2021 10:33

That was needed ;-)

[wad collector] 05/11/2021 09:30

Yes that should stop the rot in the share price . Normal £12 to 16 share price meandering to resume?

[justiceforthemany] 05/11/2021 08:10

Good update. Was in auction - up 8%.