Next Share Discussion Threads

[moopdoom] 22/3/2014 14:16

You think the spectacular earnings growth, cash generation and online penetration have been because of that?Hah!!! They trade 18 times this year's earnings.The problem is that you look at the chart and see something overvalued. Something that has seen a lot of people lose their clothes shorting this.It's far from expensive given it's exposure to the shift online. Look at ASOS and AO.com; you're paying more than 5 times more for their earnings at their current prices compared to NXT.

[miata] 21/3/2014 17:11

I've never been convinced that there are any viable short position stats, given additional positions in puts, short-selling of calls and large positions in spreadbets.

Data Explorers tracks how much of a company's stock are out on loan, and uses the loan numbers as a proxy for short interest. It's important to note, that not all shorting represents bearish bets against the company. Sometimes short interest can be driven by hedge funds and other investors when a company issued convertible bonds. It's not unusual for investors in convertible bonds – a hybrid bond that can be converted into stock if shares hit a set price – to short the company's stock as a way to hedge against the failure of shares to reach the conversion price.

At 20/03/14 there are only 9 shares in Europe that have more than 3% out on loan.
DWNI,NEO,NANO,POG,APR,SMHN,CWI,S92,BZU,CRG,ENQ,TALV

[jack jebb] 21/3/2014 16:44

Do you know the latest official short position stats please, Miata?

[miata] 21/3/2014 16:39

16:35:06 6700.00 229,645 UT 6700.00 6705.00

Interesting day, quarterly options expiry squeeze this morning.

[boxerdog1] 21/3/2014 10:49

Even modest success in a country of over 1 Billion souls could be transformational. The signs are optimistic as young easternerns crave the western culture, be it cars, electronics, food ( big Mac ), music, football and clothing and where better to get kitted out for the young proffesional on a budget than NXT. Only time will tell for certain. 3 buys v 2 holds but no sells.

[miata] 21/3/2014 09:49

Date Company EPIC Broker Recommendation Current Price Price when issued Old target price New target price
21-Mar-14 Next PLC NXT Barclays Capital Equal weight 6,707.50 6,730.00 5,650.00 6,200.00
21-Mar-14 Next PLC NXT Beaufort Securities Buy 6,707.50 6,730.00 - -
21-Mar-14 Next PLC NXT Citigroup Buy 6,707.50 6,730.00 7,000.00 7,400.00
21-Mar-14 Next PLC NXT Nomura Buy 6,707.50 6,730.00 6,500.00 7,025.00
21-Mar-14 Next PLC NXT Deutsche Bank Hold 6,707.50 6,730.00 6,100.00 6,300.00

[miata] 21/3/2014 09:39

I reckon there is potential for Western e-commerce success in China (ie Next directory).

[jack jebb] 21/3/2014 09:30

Do any Western retailers succeed in China, Mcdonalds aside?

Assuming they can be classed as such.

[boxerdog1] 21/3/2014 09:23

As NXT. own no inner city real estate they are benefiting by the falling rents and have not suffered from falling property values, they own out right their distribution hubs dating back to the flag ship Stadium way.
Due partially to this their overheads are below the industry average and by diversifying to out of town centres this is proving financially beneficial.
Their range of clothing these days is very diverse to meet most peoples pocket not necessarily the upmarket audiance they aimed at 20-25 yrs ago, they can now challange the highly successful primark as well as outperforming such as M&S.
Moving into China with a billion plus population could! be transformational, although modest in relation to that of the UK. it is their fastest growing area of sales and production.The Chinese market is mostly organic with QC. overseen by UK. management and personel.

[ian davenport] 21/3/2014 09:16

Funnily enough it seems different for me - I'm sure I'm the same size, but the number in the trouser waistband keeps rising.I'll let her do a bit of research next time she goes shopping - at least I know that extra expenditure seems to filter down to us shareholders

[jack jebb] 21/3/2014 08:50

I am not sure Ian. It was my wife that told me about the Next large clothes policy. She is a different size at Next to many of the others.

[ian davenport] 21/3/2014 08:49

Jack - my wife tells me that's been going in for at least 30 Years, by many retailers, not just Next

[jack jebb] 21/3/2014 08:47

Its proven to be a remarkably astute policy Boxer, but replicable by all.

Its not as if Next clothes are such good quality that people have to shop there. They are, after all, just mainly a clothes retailer, with high overheads and cut throat competition.

Like many, I didn't participate in the extroadinary rise up, but what goes up usually comes down, and I think we have seen the bulk of the upside.

I freely admit I have been completely wrong on this in the past though.

[boxerdog1] 21/3/2014 08:39

And thats the reason they're fast approaching £70. I'd have thought it was more due to the way it is run by a very competent BOD. Always looking for an edge, looking to get into other areas of increasing revenue stream home and overseas.
I'm informed that the CPU. through put at Nexts west Yorks hub is in the top 5% of the country well in front of M&S.

[jack jebb] 21/3/2014 08:25

I've found one!

I understand that Next have a very clever policy of making larger clothes. So women that are usually a size 12 buy a size 10 at Next. It is a very clever policy, as most women are very conscious of their size.

Once others adopt this simple but effective policy, their advantage will evaporate rather quickly imo.

[moopdoom] 20/3/2014 18:56

What a company. Hard to find many negatives, only that there are so few...When outlook is so good and results so strong, are we already here re SP?I can't help feel that this is still likely to significantly outperform though.And to think, people are buying GKP!!!DYOR IMO

[boxerdog1] 20/3/2014 16:55

£70 next stop. I recently received 2000 shares courtesy of my brother not wishing to rejoin the company share save scheme 65 months ago. He thought at £13 they'd run their course. Now being mid management he has more insight than the majority of us. He informs me the news that filters through is that £100 is within their grasp on the back of the new concept store and expected overseas growth plus good old directory. I do feel guilty about accepting near on £140ks worth of shares for a £15k outlaw so I bought him a week in Benidorm for 2!!!! I know,I know I'm too soft.

[jack jebb] 20/3/2014 11:58

I am trying to find a reason to short this, but am failing miserably!

[miata] 20/3/2014 11:50

From the HMRC website:
" You can't claim the 10 per cent tax credit, even if your taxable income is less than your Personal Allowance and you don't pay tax. This is because Income Tax hasn't been deducted from the dividend paid to you - you have simply been given a 10 per cent credit against any Income Tax due."

[lordbung] 20/3/2014 11:17

Yes it is. The dividend paperwork shows an income tax credit of 10% has been deducted before the remainder, in this case 50p, is paid to the shareholder. You can only avoid this if you've proved to the dividend payer in advance that you're exempt from income tax.

[miata] 20/3/2014 11:01

Indeed, it meant what it said, no tax is deducted from dividends.

[lordbung] 20/3/2014 10:58

Another point is that when Next said it would pay the extraordinary dividends of 50p, it actually paid an amount which meant that shareholders received 50p after tax; I know, I got it.

[privileged] 20/3/2014 10:37

chrisgailQuarterly dividends of 50p surely means 200p total plus ordinary div, not 250p. What does that do to your valuation?