Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 01/7/2019 23:14

Article in the I paper today , says £2.7bn write downs in retail property in the last year.
With more to come.
Bathstore in administration
200 Boots shops....

[hugepants] 01/7/2019 13:24

Is that really the total short position on this stock? That's pretty scary.

[bondholder] 30/6/2019 16:58

7.4% short position.

[riverman77] 29/6/2019 09:56

Starting to look attractive, but there are other much better property funds on similar or even larger discounts - CLS Holdings still doing very well, continuing to generate double digit nav returns and on 30% discount. Can't seem much reason to invest here when there are opportunities like that.

[hpcg] 29/6/2019 08:44

I'm more taken by the reports that other large market participants are offering into Woodford's distressed liquidity. The good and the viable company holdings are being taken out at what the buyers believe to be a heavily discount price. NRR is certainly viable, and we must consider the current price in context with the Woodford fund's extinction.

[spectoacc] 28/6/2019 16:08

Woody shifted another 1% I see - poor old NRR.

Not yet seen another SJP sell.

[hindsight] 27/6/2019 15:06

Brought a few, but mainly waiting till october. Any other reits that woodford or his ex mandates are off loading at present, thank you in advance?

[fenners66] 27/6/2019 00:45

Pay off existing debt, invest in energy efficient street lighting , upgrade to energy efficient buildings and pay off all the hangers on no longer required....

Ban vanity projects and collect outstanding debts..... and on day 2......

[zccax77] 26/6/2019 23:33

Councils are thinking long term. They can borrow 100% LTV, @ 1%, 50 year amortisation term. If you could borrow from central government at those terms what would you do?

[fenners66] 26/6/2019 22:14

Councils have no idea what they are doing...

Some bought over a year ago by councils will have already declined further in value.

So you think that where there is an excess of retail it can just be switched to offices and residential ?
Some can but who wants to live on a part High Street or have an office there?
Parking restrictions have helped to kill the High St as well and that does not change if you change a buildings use.

[hernando2] 26/6/2019 21:10

There is a retail park near me that the council has bought, all saying councils have no idea what they are doing.

This one is half empty, happily for the council all down at one end of the park.

I think it might be cut in half and we will see some new housing, who grants the planning permission needed?

I think some councils will do very well and business park owners will be well served to be very close to them...which of course is teaching my granny to suck eggs.

[m_kerr] 26/6/2019 20:03

regarding excess supply and market rents, if rents fall substantially, then where viable, some retail parks / units will become offices / residential.

obviously, to be sustainable, rents have to be affordable so that retailers can make a decent profit, and they need to be well located to have good footfall. NRR seem to understand this better than other REITs.

[fenners66] 26/6/2019 12:04

SpectoAcc
25 Jun '19 - 14:44 - 1217 of 1229

" Sure - NRR dropped a few percentage points of NAV last results - but the share price performance has very little to do with how the co is performing, and everything to do with stock sales and overhangs."

I acknowledge the share overhang is having an effect and said so, but you cannot look at the companies historic performance and claim that does not justify a share price move.

We know that if you work on what has happened or is happening now - you are too late , the market works on what it believes is going to happen.

How many times have we read great company results and seen their share prices fall - often because buried in the report is some warning that the future will not be as great as previously thought.

I read about Carpetrights results this morning - losses reduced from about £69m to £25m after their CVA - one of the first. But still losing a fortune.
Now there is an avalanche of CVAs and for every retailer that have not done one - their FD's should be knocking on their landlords door demanding rent reductions.

Fastest growing grocer last qtr ?

Ocado. No retail outlets.

[hpcg] 26/6/2019 11:02

Flyer, yes and no. There are 2 sellers and some opportunist sellers. The new SJP manager can do what they like with impunity; they are clearing up Woodford's trash and will not be held accountable. Secondly Woodford will have to sell. Thirdly there is an opportunist short sell opportunity, though as those shorting BCA Marketplace found out that is not a one way bet.

CWA1 - yes, if only. I think 190p is a fair value offering an 8% long term return accepting recession risk, rental and NAV decline and a more sensible distribution policy. That probably doesn't account for a Brexit induced depression, though I think NRR operates in the most resilient area of physical retail even so.

[flyer61] 26/6/2019 10:11

Starting to wonder if there is more than 1 forced seller in the market...

[speedsgh] 26/6/2019 09:38

Direct link for download of Annual Report 2019...



Link also available here:

[spectoacc] 26/6/2019 09:36

On Monday SJP dropped from 4.4% to 3.9%, so guessing another half a % yesterday, same today - they'd still have c.3%! 150p may be a better target IMO, considering this constant drip, with Woody still to offload.

[cwa1] 26/6/2019 09:30

Dear Sir/Madam. I would like to purchase some of your fine shares at the bottom of the long term share price. I would be grateful if you could, say, ring a bell when that position has been reached. Kind regards and many thanks for your help.

[eeza] 26/6/2019 09:30

@hpcg
"The ex-SJP mandate portion being eliminated now. Approx 171p my next buy area."

By the end of day at the present rate of decline.

[spectoacc] 25/6/2019 17:50

Woody got to sell the lot - but who knows if Mark Barnett is the next domino to fall! What an overhang that would be - he's clearly already suffered some Woody-/performance-related redemptions.

[chucko1] 25/6/2019 16:14

Mikey, I agree. It will take some nerve to buy in packets on the way down as it goes in your face. But if you’re in it for the long term, and not overexposed, this should be a good one. Too much explanation of the fall on the fundamentals, rather than on the Woodford-inspired shorting. Once Woodford is largely out, the HFs will cut and you’ll simply earn 12% or so per annum. Suits me.

[mikeyfernandez] 25/6/2019 15:44

St james probs down to 3.5% after today and woodford got about 12.5% Will he have to shift all of that do we think? It will be interesting to see if and when the hedge funds start unwinding their shorts. At the moment they are sitting pretty and have got no deal insurance in the background.... I'm buying in small amounts on way down in tranches and then just holding during for a few years and see what happens..

[hpcg] 25/6/2019 15:11

INTU ready for a pause on the way down IMO; nothing goes down in a straight line. The ex-SJP mandate portion being eliminated now. Approx 171p my next buy area.