Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[flyer61] 23/6/2019 08:59

One thing the whole Woodford fiasco as shown is just how illiquid many stocks are. I am reviewing my VCT portfolio because of this. Selling one percent of NRR gets a significant markdown, trading 10% and you are a known 'forced' seller and it is wipe out time. I think the short sellers are betting on two things, one, the Woodford forced selling and secondly a dividend cut. You usually always get a negative price reaction after a cut. As has been mentioned before the balance sheet is not under any stress, they are in an unfashionable area of real estate but do seem to be good at what they do.

Not expecting any huge uplift but an 8 or 9% dividend return over the long term will do for me.

[hpcg] 22/6/2019 12:56

riverman -I would expect short closing and Woodford's final exit being market neutral. IMO the post dividend 190p level is a fair value accounting for the ultimate decline in the NAV and a dividend cut. The (my low end estimate) 8% yield at this level will be a rewarding long term hold.

[riverman77] 22/6/2019 10:49

Thanks, good overview of the short positions. So could potentially recover quite strongly once the shorts and Woodford exit. I agree I see no prospect of bankruptcy with NRR.

[flyfisher] 22/6/2019 10:24

hpcg, Thank you.

[hpcg] 22/6/2019 10:04

I'm short INTU, it's very likely going to zero as its assets are worth less than its debt. NRR shorts have been correct in their assessment - the share price was pumped up by the buying of Woodford and Barnett, and in any case that the NAV and distribution would both have to come down. The former has but that latter is yet to. The large holdings of the two fund managers would likely provide the liquidity to exit.

Toscafund and CZ have been reducing their position
Artemis, GLG, SFM, are increasing their position
Blackrock, Odey new position this month
JP Morgan up and down around a position, last move to increase. (GLG had been doing this but stepped up from 1% to 1.4% since April)
Merian last increase was in February

So some of this is clearly a tactical Woodford put, specifically Blackrock and Odey, while those that initiated in 2018 are well in the money. NRR is not going bankrupt and as yet Invesco shows no sign of stress, so we will soonish get to the point where they will need to start closing.

[zccax77] 21/6/2019 22:30

The other thing is INTU and HMSO have been bid fodder in the last year or so. I am not sure NRR or CAL can be, possibly due to size and lack of trophy assets. Plus NRR assets are not very glamorous, and CAL far too small and not worth the bother. Though I consider NRR a resilient income proposition, which is why I am interested.

[riverman77] 21/6/2019 22:21

I agree and that's why I've stayed away from this. They might not aways get it right but they will have done a lot of research and a lot smarter than me so why take the risk?

[zccax77] 21/6/2019 22:17

Anything above 4% I do not touch with a barge pole. The shorters have better information. Especially ones with massive individual shorts, means they are so sure of themselves that they have put alot of their money down on it.

[zccax77] 21/6/2019 22:15

I agree, HMSO and CAL have almost nothing, INTU 6.8%. The numbers make no sense.

[dragonsteeth] 21/6/2019 21:57

This from Citywire:
Woodford has raised nearly £59 million from a series of sales over the last three weeks of shares in real estate investment trust New River Retail (NRR), a long-standing holding in both Equity Income and Income Focus. Its shares have fallen 25% in the past month and stand on a 28% discount to NAV, reducing the company's market value to £574 million.

[riverman77] 21/6/2019 21:51

When I last checked there were 11 different institutions shorting this, most of these were in place way before this whole Woodford debacle kicked off. So I do wonder if there is soemthing else that's concerning them. Obviously retail property is hugely out of favour, but the other retail reits don't have this level of short interest.

[nickname27] 21/6/2019 21:08

They're waiting for woodford to dump I expect.

Probably not best pleased so far. They will have had to fork out a load of cash to pay the dividend today too.

[zccax77] 21/6/2019 20:59

Really want to buy NRR, but that 8.3% short position scares me. What are they waiting for to happen, this thing has already fallen 20%.

[novision] 21/6/2019 16:32

thanks for the info Speedsgh

[hpcg] 21/6/2019 16:20

New SJP manager has started selling down. Of course we don't know if this is an exit or just a rebalance.

[speedsgh] 21/6/2019 15:55

Details of the 4 retails parks was included in the original rns on 23/5...

Formation of a Joint Venture and acquisition of four retail parks for £60.5 million -

... The portfolio comprises four retail park parks: Kittybrewster Retail Park, Aberdeen; Telford Retail Park, Inverness; units in Kingsway East Retail Park, Dundee and Wakes Retail Park on the Isle of Wight. The retail parks have an affordable average rent of £14.77 per sq ft, an Affordable Rent to Sales ratio of 6.5%1 and a WAULT of 6.3 years, and are let to a high quality and well-diversified line-up of occupiers that complements NewRiver's existing portfolio...

From my own research...

Kittybrewster Retail Park, Aberdeen -
Occupiers include DFS, Sports Direct, Harveys, B&M, TK Maxx, ScS, Oak Furnitureland, Halfords, Carpetright, Pure Gym, Tapi, McDonald's

Telford Retail Park, Inverness -
Approximately 169,000 sq ft of retail warehousing. Existing Occupiers include B&M, PC World, Oak Furniture Land and Poundstretcher.

Units in Kingsway East Retail Park, Dundee -
Wickes and Pets at Home. Asda, B&Q, Harry Corry, Benson for Beds and McDonald’s are situated nearby.

Wakes Retail Park, IOW -
Wakes Retail Park is of modern construction and consists of three trading units, let to Pets at Home, Currys and PC World.

[spectoacc] 21/6/2019 15:53

STJ starting to slowly cut what they got from Woodford.

[fenners66] 21/6/2019 08:43

I see they have just announced a JV buying £60m of retail parks, curiously no detail of where / what they are.

[fenners66] 21/6/2019 08:33

"Retail isn't going away, it is changing."

You are right - unfortunately you cannot see what its changing to.

Latest Dixons/Carphone Warehouse - possibly going to close 200 shops as it realises the boom in selling handsets is over and more and more people either buy them online or go sim only.

£500m (was it?) written off - 200 more empty shop locations.

Look around the High Streets - where there is a CW there are also Vodaphone , O2, Three etc etc they will not all last much longer if a shop that sells all of them cannot compete.

Perhaps that 200 could be tripled....

Retail carnage goes on.

[marksp2011] 21/6/2019 08:03

I am buying

The retail gloom is overdone. It is very true that Dept Stores are struggling. They simply aren't nimble enough and no-one wants to pay their prices. the wife bought a white ceramic butter dish - very plain and functional in JL the other day for only £26.

Retail isn't going away, it is changing.

NRR does retail, and pubs, and development and property management and asset repurposing - I have read the reports and I like the story. I dont expect a lot of divi growth but with a yield north of 10% i don't need it from this bit of my portfolio.

NRR+BBOX+TRY does it for me.

[wskill] 20/6/2019 16:51

One of Woodys portfolio taken out today BCA hopefully we are not next as will hold these long term need this income now its too dangerous to invest in the utilities
with the threat of a labour government.

[eeza] 20/6/2019 10:15

Getting its skates on now.

[spectoacc] 20/6/2019 08:46

Good performance so far to be fair.

[ramellous] 20/6/2019 08:34

Ex div today

[chucko1] 19/6/2019 17:20

He had double that a few weeks back. Yup, it’s a long slog, but patience will be rewarded. (pun intended, along with a mountain of irony).

An 11% yield, largely covered, is a decent selling point for those flogging these things for Woody. That 195p offer we discussed a week or so back is not far from the mark.