Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 19/6/2019 15:59

Down to 12.78% now. He's still got 39m.

I thought he'd shifted more than that these last few days.

[spectoacc] 19/6/2019 15:47

Woody still got a heck of a lot to sell I guess - might fancy him doing it post-XD.

[skinny] 19/6/2019 15:45

:-)

I thought there may be a premium today on the back of it - currently down 3.20p

[spectoacc] 19/6/2019 15:42

Odds on it opening down 5.5p tomorrow? ;)

[skinny] 19/6/2019 15:35

Not much interest in ex dividend tomorrow 5.4p.

[wskill] 17/6/2019 13:21

At least with our 11% yield we are being paid to wait, very happy to have waited a few weeks as was going to invest at £2.30 but then this woody thing started off so held off buying managed to buy 50% what i require around £1.93p average and will await developments before buying the rest, if there is no trade buyer we could go even lower madness I know but that is what we have today in the market.

[cc2014] 17/6/2019 12:59

At £600m market cap that 4.5m share transaction is 1.5% of the total share capital.

My guess is Woodford will have to sell NRR in WIF down first in order to meet redemptions on that fund. WIF was £350m 7 days ago, so I'm guessing £320m now and overall the next couple of months will fall to say £200m where it will stabilise (or the fund redemptions will be so slow as not to impact).

WEIF is another matter. I can't see it opening for any length of time and whilst NRR would fit with the new mantra of mostly FTSE100 and some FTSE250 he's going to have to sell some (most) NRR to help meet redemptions. Current fund value £3.3b. I can see that falling to £0.5b-£1.0b within a year unless the fund manager is changed.


I shall watch and wait. I'd like to pick up some more but only at crazy low prices. Not sure if I will get the opportunity or not. Woodford has other stuff he will have to dump but tbh 75% of what he holds I wouldn't touch at any price.

[eeza] 17/6/2019 12:50

May find a trade buyer.

[spectoacc] 17/6/2019 12:32

At some point, Woody will still have to sell the WEIF holding in NRR. Could be a long road ahead.

[cc2014] 17/6/2019 11:23

Price rising nicely today. Either that 4.5m trade at 194.4 is a buy and accounts for the price rise or is NW dumping stock and it's a protected transaction at VWAP or whatever that NW's broker has been working for the last week.

I don't really care. There seems no selling pressure at all today

[nickname27] 17/6/2019 10:47

Hmmm, that could have been better timed

[spectoacc] 13/6/2019 15:49

HMSO, INTU, NRR similar enough to think they've been (incorrectly) lumped in together.

From recent RNS's:

- SJP have the 5% from Woodford that was transferred via mandate - will wait to see what they do with them.

- Woodford has cut a few more, presumably from IFF on redemptions (lost £100m in less than 2 weeks, allegedly £50m of withdrawals inside 2 days)

- Invesco have cut a small number. Barnett is (justifiably) suffering redemptions now too, and may be mildly rebalancing. Just speculation tho, not sure the size of his redemptions. Remember he was buying only weeks ago, in the 240's, from Woody! Once again, the only time Neil can make a good trade is when he's forced out of something (he saved £100's of millions of losses on IMB by being forced out of his most liquid position).

[cc2014] 13/6/2019 12:33

For comparison. It would seem the sector is now off the bottom althogh those will more retail are still struggling

[mridyard] 13/6/2019 12:12

I took a position in NRR yesterday. The company accounts states that they replaced £680 million of secured borrowings with unsecured borrowings. Nevertheless there is still covenants that need to be met. The accounts don't say what these limits are but they do state the target figures.I would expect the target figures to overlap the covenants. LTV, interest cover and secured borrowings.

[spectoacc] 13/6/2019 10:27

Agreed @EI. Same applies to all the property punts of course - a long time since we've had a recession..

@CC2014 - good point, "10% -2.5%" pretty much what we're getting atm!

[essentialinvestor] 13/6/2019 10:16

Keeping the politics to one side, if we leave without a deal odds of a recession
markedly increase. I can't see that as a supportive environment to either NAV or
their rent roll outlook.

[cc2014] 13/6/2019 10:04

NRR LTV is 37%.


Fenners "Problem is I look for high yields where I think the dividend is sustainable."
I think the challenge here is sifting the wheat from the chaff and it takes a huge amount of time, energy and skill to do this.

I have found if you ignore the very high paying dividends and wind the requirement back to 6% yield, lots of options open up. At 7% things start getting a bit sticky and alot more sifting is required.

Tbh here although I would enjoy capital appreciation and the dividend yield, if I end up with 10% dividend and 2.5% capital loss that will do me. Anything else is a bonus.

[shawzie] 13/6/2019 09:46

RCTurner2
From NRR website "All of our debt is unsecured and our assets unencumbered."
Does this not make it different from other REITs in relation to "the bank will come calling"?

[lord gnome] 13/6/2019 09:42

fenners66 - I think you and I agree on the EU. The biggest threat to Britain is not leaving on 31 October.

[rcturner2] 13/6/2019 09:21

All of the REITs have debts with covenants tied to LTV. So rent levels dont actually matter, they can be servicing all their debt and still the bank will come calling. Remember these are GEARED plays on property values not just a nice dividend paid by rents.

[fenners66] 13/6/2019 09:13

Lord Gnome - I don't see this as an apocalypse at all.

For the last few years I have been looking at higher yielding shares on the market.

Some of them , on studying I decided and posted many times were basket cases and were going to lead to zero value for shareholders, CLLN INV DEBS LA.

NRR should not be , but the share price decline was likely.

I think that the dividend will come under pressure in years to come - however if the share price keeps falling , will the yield continue to hold up ?

Problem is I look for high yields where I think the dividend is sustainable.

As for Brexit - a no deal would mean a bit of disruption - but the REAL threat of no deal should be to get the arrogant Eurocrats around the negotiation table on the basis that they have to negotiate a deal not just impose a deal on the pathetically weak Treason May.

A credible threat to walk away should have them make the next move / concession.

Regardless I don't buy the Brexit apocalypse as I didn't buy project fear and the morning after the referendum Budget threat. Remember that ?

We have built centuries of economic growth on innovation, we adapt and we do it rapidly. We need to escape Euro bureaucracy and we will adapt more quickly than the Europeans do.

Remember there was going to be an apocalypse if we did not join the Euro - well that BS did not happen either.

[lord gnome] 13/6/2019 09:13

Good points CC2014. As to when and where it will bottom out, I haven't a clue. Nobody will ring a bell to let me know. I have however, probably made more money (read, saved more money) by watching these drop than I have made on any of my other long term hold, dividend plays over the last 12 months. It is just over 12 months since I saw NRR present at Mello. I was very impressed and put the share firmly on my watch list as a third leg of my property holdings (RGL and AEWU). I resisted the temptation to buy at that stage and then watched the share price drop, drop, drop until we are where we are today.

[cc2014] 13/6/2019 09:04

Well some facts.

60% of NRR income is retail and almost none of it is fashion or eating out.
38% is pubs and that's already turned the corner

60% of their debt is not due until 2023/24 and the remaning 40% until 2028.

Passing rent subject to revenue in next two years £6.8m which is less than 5% of their income.


I'm of the view this has been dragged down with the retail sector and it's reached a point where the fundamentals sufficiently outweight the market perception I've bought in (at 193.5). As I said at the time I will scale in due to FOMO.
This is because I fear sentiment and Woodford will drive it lower yet.

so, whilst I think fair value is much higher than 190p, I have to "guess" how low it will go. And that's one of the challenges of trading. Someone needs to sell me the shares so I can buy them and I need them to sell them to me at a "low" price. It would be really nice if the "low" price only lasted a few days, I caught the bottom and then off we go. It rarely works like that.


I'm happy enough. With wage rises higher than inflation by a decent amount now that should continue to work it's way through. My concern is Brexit.

[zccax77] 13/6/2019 08:43

The future is both convenience and the top 50 sites which INTU, HMSO, BLND and LAND own. The rest is going down.