Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 20/5/2019 06:43

Interesting - not a fan whatsoever of councils becoming comm prop investors via subsidised govnt lending scheme, but it's def an opportunity for NRR - potential new income stream.

[chucko1] 19/5/2019 23:45

This appears to be additional lowly-correlated fee income. So long as it doesn’t impinge too much on management time, what’s not to like?

NW has a pearl here, and yet ... His loss will be others’ gain, I suppose.

[eeza] 19/5/2019 23:25

"New River to help councils

Property investor NewRiver is in ‘active discussions’ with 30-odd local authorities to help them buy or manage shopping centres.

Half the councils are engaged in talks over properties already bought and could ask NewRiver to help manage them. In others, councils are looking at new opportunities. NewRiver may become an adviser and invest in the schemes jointly. The properties are thought to be worth £10 million to £85 million.

NewRiver, which buys and sells retail property and pubs, is understood to be set to publish details of the growing area of business in its annual results on Thursday."


Scroll down for article.

[eeza] 03/5/2019 14:39

Resumption of normal service.

[fenners66] 02/5/2019 11:51

Years ago , when Woodford left Invesco (was it?) St James Place issued blurb saying that he was setting up his own funds as he was doing so well.
I thought why would you want to move from an organisation to follow an individual that may have just got lucky?

I have followed some of his recent mistakes - I sold PFG at +200% he's losing money on them.
The others IRV CLLN etc I looked in detail at and did not touch with a bargepole - and his statements were the kind of garbage you read on these boards all sentiment and no facing facts.

He may well get lucky again and I am sure he has already been handsomely rewarded...

[spectoacc] 02/5/2019 07:38

Ha ha still can't remember its name. Amazing how some managers fall in love with a share - maybe the idea will work out, and the business survive, but the shareholder money is long gone.

(I'd forgotten CIR, and no doubt others, from that Woodford list. Also didn't realise he holds nearly 25% of PFG, a co far from out of the woods).

[chucko1] 01/5/2019 17:49

I love it - “that pallet company”. Afraid the screen will crack if you type the name?!?

I met someone a few weeks back in private equity who still believes in such pallet company and also in PURP. I nodded politely! Then he said he had invested in both. I tried not to laugh as I wanted some business from him. I should have laughed as we did not get the business.

[hpcg] 01/5/2019 17:14

SpectoAcc 'valuation is the only reliable predictor of long-term investment returns' demonstrates Woodford has no idea what he is doing. ROCE is the best predictor, though nothing is perfect. Valuation is one of the poorest, inevitably as it has nothing to do with company performance but simply how the market judges profits. This is why he has fallen down so many value traps since he launched that he must be close to the centre of the earth now. Some of those value traps he created himself by bidding shares up to ridiculous valuations.

Agree, I think NRR gets eased out slowly because at least it has a positive terminal value. Yes, I also think Invesco needs careful monitoring, but at least some of their holdings have been purchased at lower prices. The charts for those funds aren't great but are less catastrophic than for Woodford's funds.

[chucko1] 01/5/2019 16:02

@Spectoacc, like you, I would own slightly more NRR were it not for the Woodford cloud. In fact, I sold a few today only because of the chance he has to sell more and I originally bought what I sold today rather speculatively (on a sudden 15p div-adjusted drop).

Concerning your last paragraph, there may still be a chance that he inches his way out of this, but I don’t really care - he should not be in this situation in the first place. I like contrarians, but this is wholly ill-conceived in that he is having his hands forced in a massively destructive way. Mark Barnett is not, even though one would think they share similar overall thoughts about the market.

[93marquez] 01/5/2019 15:51

Specto thanks, good post.

[spectoacc] 01/5/2019 14:41

Lol @LG, I've enough already.. ;)

Woodford:

“From time to time, markets become detached from valuation reality and while they are, fund managers like me appear to be incapable of delivering good outcomes. I appreciate that this can be an uncomfortable journey for investors but valuation is the only reliable predictor of long-term investment returns. I remain focused on capturing the opportunity that exists in parts of the market that have been left behind since we voted to leave the EU two and half years ago. The portfolios are populated with profoundly undervalued companies, many that are exposed to the UK economy. Crucially, the portfolios are positioned how I want them to be and are completely focused on a valuation opportunity, the likes of which I haven’t seen for more than 30 years.”
— Neil Woodford"

Other than "He would say that", it's pleasing to think that NRR is one he's chosen to keep a large stake in.

(I'm trying to work out what % of the fund it is, since he publishes full holdings, but struggling so far).

Edit: found them.

BDEV 7.2%
BUR 5.7%
PFG 4.5%
>>>
9th place - NRR, 3.2% (listed under "financials", really?).

If I were Woodford, I'd have flogged off PFG by now. BDEV, IMB, & TW. all sit above NRR and would be liquid enough to flog. Too many small/naff/unlisted things in there too mind - the list stretches to 103 holdings and includes such gems as Eve Sleep (0.08% - and falling), Northwest Bio, & PURP. Actually - 101 holdings, it still includes P2P & VSL.

At least to some extent, the "profoundly undervalued companies" are in large part caused by his selling, and/or the fear of it. I don't see him recovering this time - when he was struggling previously, he got to keep hold of the things he thought would do well (pharmas & tobacco, basically).

[lord gnome] 01/5/2019 14:36

Not that you'd think that looking at today's price action, Speccy. Perhaps the market thinks that the previous NRR sales plus those of VSL and P2P have covered off the redemptions. We now seem to have a rising trend with higher highs and lower lows. If anyone could talk this back down to 220 for me I would be most grateful.

[spectoacc] 01/5/2019 14:27

" Mr Woodford’s investment company said in April that assets in the flagship equity income fund had fallen to £4.4bn, down from £4.7bn at the end of February, and 57 per cent lower than its all-time peak of £10.2bn in 2017."

Not sure when in April that was, and whether any new ISA money gone in (surely at least some), but £300m in c.2 months puts it into perspective - he'll have already sold much of the liquid stuff, to cover the previous £5bn. VSL and P2P get him only £125m, pretty much his monthly run rate of redemptions!

So NRR stake very much still in the firing line in future.

[spectoacc] 01/5/2019 14:04

@chucko1 - about 16%, or 56m, or c.£40m for VSL. Around 10m or c.£85m in P2P. Think in both cases that's the full stake, unlike with NRR sale, and in neither case (unlike with NRR) sold on to Invesco/Mark Barnett, who is the largest shareholder in both VSL & P2P (but also bumping up against the limit - 32.8% of P2P in fact).

Seems a good sign that Woodford fully exited both of those, but agree I'd rather see him fully out of NRR too. There's also the "Invesco risk" for all of these of course - the chance that the Woodford rot spreads to Barnett.

[chucko1] 01/5/2019 11:46

But will it? Until we know the percentage redemptions, we cannot say to what extent the liquidation of the P2P and VSL holdings offsets that.

Does anyone know what were the holdings of the latter two?

[spectoacc] 01/5/2019 10:52

Seems he sold out of P2P yesterday too, so the exiting of VSL & P2P may relieve a little selling pressure elsewhere.

[a0002577] 01/5/2019 09:41

He did exit VSL; there was an RNS late yesterday - holding now ZERO

[spectoacc] 30/4/2019 16:46

Still no Holdings In Co RNS to suggest Woodford's dumped more, but I reckon he may have exited VSL yesterday (someone certainly did). So my theory that he'd get at least some money in the new ISA season may be wide of the mark.

[eeza] 24/4/2019 17:09

Probably been out for the day.

Normal service tomorrow?

[chucko1] 24/4/2019 17:09

The moral appears to be to buy on the days where he appears to be selling. 224.5p was a pretty easy decision for a few more. It was effectively a drop of about 7% ex-dividend.

[spectoacc] 24/4/2019 16:08

Maybe Woodford not selling today eh ;)

[chucko1] 23/4/2019 19:30

Eeza, true, but that’s been the situation for a year or so. The fear seems to have been largely baked into the price. That said, if the selling becomes frantic on the back of very rapid fund withdrawals, we could see some further poor price action on NRR. But that is a wholly different matter from poor fundamentals which was also a key fear of 2018, so Woodford mayhem might be met with a lot of buying at these low prices. To an extent, it’s a good sign that Barnett was happy to take more. But it would be good to see further major buyers as and when NW is forced to sell more.

[eeza] 23/4/2019 18:59

Well it's not, so much, his sell that is causing the damage but how many more he might need to dump.

And whether there is a willing counter-party.

[chucko1] 23/4/2019 17:48

That’s my guess. Selling PURP too, probably. Big funds withdrawal recently.