Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 04/4/2019 07:27

@chucko1 - agreed. My two concerns are - what happens when Invesco reach 29.99%; and - Mark Barnett is hardly free of trouble either! He's basically "Woodford Lite". Tho as I said above, ISA season is going to bring them both some cash.

Should also note that the trade appears to have been done at 239.25p.

[chucko1] 03/4/2019 17:42

@SpectoAcc, that’s massive news, in a variety of respects!

My Hope always was that there would be a willing taker for NW if he had to sell.

1. NW has been forced to sell, and that, in of itself, is terrible for him. He has held this, and even increased the position as he was selling other stuff.

2. This is one of my key stocks, and I have held back with the fear of a NW sellathon. The fact that Mark Barnett is happy to take what he can (I agree that there is a limit to this, though) has probably encouraged others to believe they are not alone in having/retaining faith in NRR. Hence the ongoing rise.

3. If you decided to own NRR for the long run, and by that I mean years, I suspect that we are approaching the beginning of a sustained, but gradual, firming of the share price All his time you will be receiving a now 9% div yield.

Has the fall from 330p to 190p now been confirmed as a combination of:

a) Overreaction to the weakness in the mainstream retail sector? NRR simply are not that related to that space.

b) Fear of NW forced selling - now partly realised? A case of sell on the rumour and buy on the fact.

As an aside, with Barnett buying cheap from NW, the bigwigs at Invesco must be grinning from ear to ear.

[spectoacc] 03/4/2019 16:36

So... Woodford selling down, and Invesco buying? Woodford dropped from 29.06% to 23.35%; Invesco gone from 18.17% to 25.07%, in those big block trades reported yesterday. Feels like big news, but the move perhaps mostly happened already.

Woodford really liked NRR, he really is in trouble (was adding to his stake barely a year ago).

Invesco can only buy so many from him of course.

Shorts may need to think twice, at least near-term, if the forced seller has a willing buyer. I doubt Woodford would need to sell all, and how ever poorly he's performed, there'll still be a few ISAs going to him next week.

[belgraviaboy] 02/4/2019 14:33

Interesting volume figures......

[andyj] 02/4/2019 10:21

A few too Marstons too many?

[cc2014] 02/4/2019 09:04

What I think we are looking at is this. If the price can get to around 108 and breakout it will be looking really good.

[spectoacc] 02/4/2019 08:34

Never like to suggest we've "seen the bottom" with NRR, but..... :)

[hugepants] 28/3/2019 15:20

possibly up in sympathy with RDI reit which was subject to a takeover bid yesterday?

[bg23] 28/3/2019 15:11

is this move higher a read across from the RGL results?

[ramellous] 28/3/2019 14:51

Maybe peeps using up this yrs isa allowance. Bittersweet for me really. My avg is 250 so would be nice to show a profit on my portfolio but I’m here for the yield so don’t mind if it stayed down here or lower for the top ups.

[chucko1] 28/3/2019 14:08

Strange that so few people were turned on by an 11% yield - most of it fully covered - with such a low and not seemingly increasing void percentage.

That’s what fear does. It’s not as though the world is unaware that retail is a terrible area for the time being. Just not as terrible for NRR and other decent operations.

[spectoacc] 28/3/2019 13:58

'Tis strange - news on these pub purchases leaked out perhaps?

Of course, also strange was tanking a quid over the past 12 months ;)

[fenners66] 28/3/2019 13:52

Strange move up.

[orchestralis] 28/3/2019 13:43

Been looking a bit stronger of late

[andyj] 28/3/2019 12:09

A new high? That would be nice

[chucko1] 06/3/2019 16:33

@SpectoAcc, that is not a downside that will keep me up at night! It does not affect what we already have, only the efficiency of operations that they will be prevented from improving.

I’m happy with my 11% per annum - more is just greedy.

[spectoacc] 06/3/2019 13:55

Was press on Woodford in the ST at the weekend - apparently their article prompted him to do that WPCT switch with his Income Fund (ie selling unlisted holdings to his WPCT, in return for WPCT shares).

It pointed out that his income fund started out with a large proportion in liquid, FTSE100 income stocks, but that redemptions of c.£5bn meant he had relatively few left, and none at all in some of his previous favourites like AZN, GSK etc.

Will he have to flog some NRR eventually too? Maybe, since performance isn't going anywhere and more money may exit. But I'm with @chucko1 - not too fussed, as long as NRR's business continues to flourish and we continue to get the dividend.

Only downside is the difficulty NRR would have in raising more equity - still waiting to hear if they're buying more pubs.

[ramellous] 06/3/2019 13:43

Just noticed that The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund has just under 3% of NRR too. They’re no mugs.

[chucko1] 06/3/2019 13:11

I love the share, but the Woodford news becomes increasingly concerning. He owns 29% of the entire stock and the rivets are continuing (accelerating) to pop from his fund empire.

That said, NRR is quoted and backed by assets (fully covering its dividends even at this high level). In that respect, it’s in a far better situation than other Woodford holdings. But for the foreseeable, NRR will remain under pressure irrespective of other issues, whether positive or negative.

It’s also worth saying that even if NRR fell to a single penny, it makes no difference to its viability and dividends as it has no financing requirements to speak of. It has some debt to roll over, but this debt is likely wholly secured by the underlying assets as opposed to the corporation.

In short, I am more than happy to see the share price falling!! I am also happy to see it rising.

PHP fell 65% in 2007-9, but its dividend rose the entire period and its annualised return for 22 years has been over 11%. I’d only be concerned if their dividend coverage slipped owing to unrented or unrentable properties. Hardly a whiff of it as yet.

[eeza] 06/3/2019 12:26

Nose-diving once again.

[killing_time] 04/3/2019 12:41

Yep, bought back in first thing this morning after being out almost a year. Like the breakout in the chart.

[chucko1] 04/3/2019 12:08

It’s still very cheap. Even if it falls again, I could hardly care less. This is good for a total return of 10% per annum in the long term, most of that being earned in cash rents.

Wake me up in 2029.

[andyj] 04/3/2019 12:01

This is what we were waiting for, a break above 230. If it can hold....