Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[gswredland] 23/4/2019 17:44

Presumably Woodford sell prompted fall?

[ramellous] 23/4/2019 09:44

Yes chucko, the slide indicates they're looking at 8% yield for those funds..

I'm liking these drop backs. Topping up at nearly 10% divi on cost suits me.

[chucko1] 23/4/2019 08:29

And also slide 13 showing div cover of >100% since 2012 and slide 14 showing div cover of 77% for H1 2019 and the large Hawthorn Leisure effect which basically explains the shortfall. Reassuring.

The other reason explaining the shortfall is the intentional holding back of £75mm of investment funds - some of their recent acquisitions have been at very high initial yields and I presume they are targeting the same with these funds. I am happy to leave such decisions to them!

[ramellous] 23/4/2019 07:38

redponza have a look at slide 15 of the interim report.

[redponza] 23/4/2019 05:29

Re Chucko:
Understand that the FY 2018 dividend is covered by FFO, but I believe the concern here is that the FY19 coverage, from the FY2019 H1 report, the FFO/share is stated as 8.3 pence, while dividend is 10.8 pence.

[chucko1] 22/4/2019 11:25

Dividend was covered in FY 2018 from FFO, though not from net revenue. This is because of the effect of valuation adjustments. Long term, it’s the FFO which matters.

[tim1478] 22/4/2019 07:57

I agree redponza, I thought dividend was not covered. Maybe I am missing the same thing as you!

[redponza] 21/4/2019 12:16

Re chucko:
Thanks for your reply.
I do have read some pages back.
You guys do mentioned that the dividend is fully covered in several occasions.
But from the Q3 results, it seems that the dividend is only 77% covered.

Am I missing sth here?

The stock is certainly interesting with its high yield.
I do believe that not retail shop will close and the current situation is overblown.

[chucko1] 20/4/2019 17:01

Hello Redponza, on the subject of value traps, there is much in what you say. Too many of his “high dividend paying” + “sure to recover” + “market is wrong” combos have fallen flat on their faces. It’s actually quite absurd given the longevity of the man!

Is NRR different? Well, they cover their very high dividend and have done so in virtual perpetuity. As for where their income comes from, I suggest you invest an hour or two going into their web site and finding the videos made by their senior officers describing the company and its philosophy. They are very informative if a little dry (not such a bad thing). I would also argue that there have been some good posts on this board the past year trying to analyse the ability of NRR to succeed where many similar-looking REITs have badly struggled (INTU a prime example) in such a poor off-line retailing backdrop.

Most posts on this board are constructive on NRR, but that is natural on a quiet stock such as this. There are good posts taking a somewhat opposite view which you should find equally useful.

And newbie or not, would welcome your own opinion as you get familiar with NRR.

[lord gnome] 20/4/2019 15:14

Redponza - NRR don’t actually manage pubs in that sense. They own the freeholds and collect rent from the occupants. They also buy and sell the freeholds and do it rather well or so it would seem. Marston sold a load of pubs to NRR to raise finance. They then rent them back. NRR is also looking at redevelopment opportunities from the pub portfolio e.g. convenience stores. Hope this helps.

[redponza] 20/4/2019 08:45

Hi there, new to this board and first time poster.
Have searched for long time for a stock forum on UK stocks, finally landed here!

I saw that NRR has diversified into pub which seems a very lucrative biz (1x% IRR).
But when I checked out the other listed pubs (ie Greene King, Marston), it does not seem that their results are particularly great.

Is there any difference in the pubs operated by Greene King/Marston and NRR?
Or put it another way, if the pubs previously owned by Marston is so good, why they would want to sell them to NRR?

Re Woodford:
I dunno whether this is bad luck or what. But I agree with hpcg that Woodford seems to be in every value trap possible. I really wonder how his funds do stock picking.....

[eeza] 17/4/2019 16:02

All the fly-boys know that Woodford is a forced seller of his most liquid stocks, to fund redemptions from his funds, and they will be front-running.

[chucko1] 17/4/2019 15:19

I think it inevitable that NW will/is dumping. It’s not the end of the world and there’s nothing wrong with NRR. Barnett can only buy so much, it was always going to be a rough ride at some stage.

The acceleration of press reports about NW may well have brought the timing forward and it may well be what is causing this sudden drop.

[spectoacc] 17/4/2019 15:19

10p on NRR isn't much of a move! Yet to see much volume either. Feels more like a d/g.

[eeza] 17/4/2019 15:16

Why?

Well stocks usually dump 10pts the day before XD - it's a well known phenomenon .

[93marquez] 17/4/2019 14:58

Ex div tomorrow might be a buying opportunity

[spectoacc] 17/4/2019 14:57

Why?

Though on the Woodford side - read at the weekend that several of the unlisted ones he'd floated in Guernsey have been suspended by the regulator for listing violations! Could make things interesting..

[eeza] 17/4/2019 14:55

Woodford must be dumping.

[ramellous] 06/4/2019 18:21

Looks like the co op are doing well. A good tie up for NRR’s community focus.

[spectoacc] 05/4/2019 13:34

Interesting spread in the IC today giving the "For" & "Against" for Woodford Equity Income. Also pointing out that if he gets desperate, he can always flog more unlisted stuff to his own WPCT.

[hpcg] 05/4/2019 11:55

I'm not up to date with Woodford's disasters, but I think his income funds had a reasonable holding in Saga? I mean, he's been in every value trap going. This included if we consider the 350 level, which of course his buying caused. I suspect Woodford will come out of this an ex fund manager, so we should anticipate more selling from that direction.

[chucko1] 05/4/2019 09:27

I think it more likely to be an acceleration in redemptions on account of the recent widespread commentary about his funds. Overall, it’s had a pretty negative slant and has been available to readers of journals and papers covering the whole range of investment expertise. But this is no more than an estimate on my part.

[spectoacc] 05/4/2019 09:19

Minor point, but I see Woodford offloaded a fraction of his large PURP holding too (Weds, reported yesterday). Tax year end selling of his fund perhaps, causing these desperation measures. (If I were Mark Barnett, I'd have bought the NRR from him lower than 239.25).

As per above - there'll be at least some new tax year buying I reckon.

[spectoacc] 04/4/2019 09:17

Agreed, and we're being paid to wait.

I'd guess NRR might come under pressure again should Invesco get up to to 29.9%.

[chucko1] 04/4/2019 09:08

SpectoAcc, yes, they remain my concerns. But at least one fifth of NW’s position is gone, so unless there is a further significant bout of redemptions from EIF, the risk of NRR selling pressure is abated. But as I have previously argued, true believers in NRR should just wait all this out (as well as Brexit - if that is humanly possible) as NRR will far outlive NW’s melodrama.