Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[hugepants] 07/6/2022 11:29

Nick Yes H2 dividend was lower at 3.3p. However Hawthorn was disposed of in August so it should not have contributed to the UFFO and therefore the H2 dividend. They also say the total dividend is 80% of UFFO.

[nickrl] 07/6/2022 10:47

Huge teh NAV was well down on what i thought and i was being conservative compared to others. Need to remember that H1 EPS included Hawthorn so I would suggest FY23 will be more like 6 t0 6.5% yield based on your share price Not to be sneered at though.

Valuation increase was very low and shopping centres still screwing them although with the work out assets down nearly 50% over two years they surely can't drop much further. Retail Pks stand out like other REITs but how much further can go given the macro economic headways so NAV might not move up that fast from now on.

All in though they have the sort of retailers on the rent roll that shouldn't be too severely impacted by consumer spending so the lower divi is sustainable.

[hugepants] 07/6/2022 09:38

Results look fine to me but is NAV a bit lower than expected at 134p?

At 92p the discount is 31% and yield is 7.1% (annualising the H2 dividend)
LTV 34% which is well below the 40% target.

[hugepants] 31/5/2022 15:15

Shares perking up a bit here presumably in anticipation of next weeks results.

[battlebus2] 05/5/2022 11:23

Much better looking today I see. 85/6p was a bargain for those who bought I believe.

[lord gnome] 03/5/2022 18:14

Should be ok with that CWA1. This will move up sooner or later although it has been a dog of a share to hold.

[nickrl] 03/5/2022 17:56

My estimate is 6-7p divi is sustainable range with improvement only possible if they can secure ERV which is debatable given retail will be hit by cost of living crisis but at least they are largely out of the discretionary end of retail.

[cwa1] 03/5/2022 17:30

Took a few in the auction at 85.7p. Hopefully not a stupid price in the medium term...

[hugepants] 03/5/2022 14:49

fyi from the recent update;
"...Furthermore our disposal activity has reduced net debt to c.£222 million at 31 March 2022, from £493 million at 31 March 2021, the coupon on our drawn debt is fixed and we have no maturity on drawn debt until March 2028."

[dhoult12] 03/5/2022 14:31

See shed and other shares in property. Higher interest rates mean when borrowing needs to be renewed the rates paid by NRR are expected to be higher. Can they maintain the spread with higher charges to occupant's? Depends on the lease and demand etc etc

[mindthestash] 03/5/2022 14:11

I'd be surprised if it was anything less than 7.1p which was last years. The policy is to pay 80% of UFFO. The trading statement recently said uffo would be at the upper end of expectations.

Was there anything else in the broker note which accounts for the recent slide in shares since?

Rising int rates and cost of living may be hitting retail sentiment across the spectrum?

Tempted to top up as this is heading for buy territory on a 7.1p divi hopefully announced in early june

Thought appreciated

[hugepants] 03/5/2022 13:42

"battlebus221 Apr '22 - 10:00 - 3948 of 3952
House broker says in the note this morning that at 110 the discount would be still 20%. Also forecast a 7p dividend."

On that basis the discount is 37% just now. Anyone know if the 7p dividend is going to be sustainable going forwards or does that include the one off from the sale of the pubs business.
I think I saw previous posts suggesting 6.5p as being well covered? 6.5p gives a 7.5% yield

[marksp2011] 30/4/2022 09:24

From the VIP H1 Report.

In the last couple of years my little high street has acquired
Sainsbury, Tesco, LIDL and Iceland which adds some credence to the VIP comments.

======================================================================================



Retail - Off the Bottom Overall - Out of Town Buoyant, In Town Improving if Rents Realistic

Many retailers in high streets and shopping centres were already on their last legs before COVID; online retail sales market share reached 36% in 2020, up from 20% a year before and only 14% five years ago. The pandemic hit them hard in two ways: mainly by getting older shoppers, in particular, used to the range and convenience of shopping online, but also by encouraging a switch from public transport and parking in congested city centres to the relative ease of car-borne shopping out of town, especially where well-run retail warehouse operators like B&Q, trade counters, B&M and Home Bargains trade alongside the leading supermarkets. Retail warehouse rents were under downward pressure

pre-pandemic, but have now stabilised and capital values are growing rapidly - partly because many institutional investors have missed the market in industrial property, want no more offices, and have money which they are struggling to invest.

On the high street, the steepest falls in property values have happened in "prime" Central London and other prime highly valued cities and towns which are now unaffordable for both multiple and individual retailers. Unfair business rates had already crippled urban high streets in less prosperous parts of the UK, with fundamental reform rejected in the latest Budget. Suburbs and market towns with more affordable rents and an attractive mix of convenience and independent traders are outperforming as shops re-open and new retailers take space. Transaction volumes are rising again for high street shops and shopping centres, but only at double figure yields unless they offer compelling residential or other alternative use values.

[panache1] 27/4/2022 20:11

100p is not unreasonable - you'll be fine

[battlebus2] 27/4/2022 15:18

Not the start I expected to my first purchase 🤷‍a94;️

[nimbo1] 21/4/2022 11:31

I bought some this am - min target 110p I hope

[battlebus2] 21/4/2022 10:00

House broker says in the note this morning that at 110 the discount would be still 20%. Also forecast a 7p dividend.

[chucko1] 21/4/2022 09:53

I think there was too much pessimism on the next (this one) NAV estimate. I see further rises, but it is the income growth that will see this approach the 130p level I have been trading for. In that respect, some of the lease renewal language was reasonably constructive.

[nickrl] 21/4/2022 09:22

Indicating UFO will be towards upper end of analysts expectations so at 80% UFFO that implies a total of 6.6-7p FY divi or 2.5-3p final. Remember they did get a H1 benefit off Hawthorn before the sale.

Debt locked in till 2028 means they aren't exposed in the short term to any IR rises.

They never say what they've sold in the smaller lots and the income loss which is a bit frustrating but they've now turned the corner fore sure and given there portfolio being biased towards necessities ought to hold up through the discretionary spending squeeze coming over the horizon.

My forecast on NTA is 142-144.

[hugepants] 21/4/2022 08:47

Strong looking update all things considered

[lord gnome] 21/4/2022 08:16

Debt is no longer a major issue. All REITs are mortgaged to achieve desired levels gearing. NRR is probably a better investment now than it has been for several years. We should be back through a pound in short order.

[marksp2011] 21/4/2022 08:14

700m value at 35% LTV
with 311M shares

c 147p

the debt is in the ltv

[solarno lopez] 21/4/2022 08:02

With £220m of debt

[marksp2011] 21/4/2022 08:00

NAV seems to be north of 147

[spin doctor] 04/4/2022 12:41

I'm finally into these having watched for a good while.
Derisking nicely. Attractive and probably growing dividends.
Feels like margin of safety.
Probable material rerating next 3-6 months IMV.