Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[nickrl] 07/10/2022 14:57

ammons Next have also reported they have achieved rent reductions but guess it how much is reflected in ERVs already

[ammons] 07/10/2022 08:58

Dunno if this sort of thing will affect NRR but, from todays results at SDRY:



".........Rent payments to landlords during FY22 totalled £71.7m (FY21: £45.4m). The figure was higher in the current year as a result of £15.7m rent deferrals which were paid (FY21: £24.0m total deferral). As at the end of the year we have £8.2m remaining rent deferrals which we expect to settle in the next year or to crystallise as permanent waivers.

At the end of FY22, we had renewed a total of 55 store leases, out of a store base of 220, for an average lease commitment of three years at an average reduction of 45%. We anticipate achieving this level of reduction across the remainder of the portfolio."

[dhoult12] 23/9/2022 21:13

11% yield on an Asda bond now.
Not sure what's cheap anymore.

[scrwal] 23/9/2022 20:41

NRR hasn't been a reliable long term investment judging by the 5 year price and dividends paid.
Given the current market woes and dodgy Government budget there isn't much that can be classed as reliable.

[nickrl] 23/9/2022 14:08

Huge given we've had no RNS on workout locations there is a risk that the change of mkt sentiment has stalled selling the remaining assets on. Its not a disaster if this is the case as they are income producing. Not sure what its going to take for REITs to stabilise and be seen as long term reliable investments. All we can do is take advantage and collect the divis.

[hugepants] 23/9/2022 12:35

NRR falling with the rest of the sector and its on a massive 9%+ yield and 47% discount now.
I reckon they should be ok since "...No maturity on drawn debt until 2028 and no exposure to interest rate rises on drawn debt" and the recent monthly updates on commercial property valuations have been showing retail as flat whereas the other sectors such as industrial and offices are trending down.

In July they said "90% of planned Work Out asset disposals currently under offer at pricing consistent with March 2022 valuations". I doubt the current environment will be helping but it would be good to get an update on this.

portfolio breakdown:

Shopping Centres (Core) 34%
Retail Parks 26%
Shopping Centres (Regeneration) 25%
Shopping Centres (Work Out) 14%
Other 1%

[nickrl] 06/9/2022 12:31

chucko1 agreed but if Truss splashes the cash around will be a changed outlook at least in the short term and this sector will bounce back. It will suppress the inflation peak and give BoE some wriggle room although still expect 0.5% next week.

[chucko1] 06/9/2022 11:53

A sensible energy policy from Truss will also help.

Bought back one or two at this level. But not more, as the overall outlook for most financial assets is hardly sunny.

[nickrl] 06/9/2022 10:23

andplus indeed but being dragged down with rest of them despite not being exposed to hospitality or tenants dependant on discretionary spending

[andplus] 06/9/2022 08:56

Fuuuuuuck!!!!

[nickrl] 09/8/2022 17:09

CWA1 not sure M&G have filled this in properly as they had c6% so have dropped below 5% hence the RNS.

[trcml] 03/8/2022 09:13

compared to AEW UK REIT and Ediston REIT, NewRiver's significant shareholders' percentage of shares is substantial less at around 25% compared to 50-60% for the others. Why is that would you think? My thoughts are has NewRiver has a dilutive rights issue? or was it that the pubs deterred? Perhaps existing and other potential significant shareholders do not rate the portfolio as much as NR does?

[lord gnome] 28/7/2022 08:39

Good points Nick. I am prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that they have a decent pipeline of investments. The read across from AEWU is that the bargains are out there. Just as long as they don’t buy any pubs!

[cwa1] 28/7/2022 08:32

Ex the 3.3p dividend today, paid 2/9

[nickrl] 26/7/2022 09:03

Lord Gnome their updates always written to read well!

Anyhow I did dabble here before FY results as i felt it was in a better space so good to see a modest improvement but with would sound a note of caution about how much more upside they will have on NRI looking at the ERV outturn this qtr especially with economic headwinds ahead. Work out assets are in the books at 90m they said they were going to dispose of five this year so potentially another 40-45m on the cash pile. With modest capex currently be good to know what the plan is more all this cash they are accumulating as no debt is due till 2028.

[lord gnome] 26/7/2022 07:52

That update reads well. This is now very investible again.

[hugepants] 26/7/2022 07:41

Looks positive and quite impressed 90% of the Work Out assets are under offer. They had 11 of these at year end and were 14% of the portfolio.

[cwa1] 26/7/2022 07:25

First Quarter Company Update

Resilient operational metrics, clear strategy and strong balance sheet

NewRiver will hold its Annual General Meeting ("AGM") at 10:00am today and is providing the following trading update in respect of the first quarter ended 30 June 2022.

Highlights include:


-- Fourth consecutive quarter of positive leasing spreads to ERV,
with Q1 leasing achieved +1% vs March 2022 ERV
-- Strong Q1 rent collection of 96% which is tracking in line with
Q4 FY22 (currently at 98%)
-- Occupancy increased to 96.5% from 95.6% at 31 March 2022
-- 90% of planned Work Out asset disposals currently under offer
at pricing consistent with March 2022 valuations
-- Balance sheet strength maintained with interest rate fixed on
drawn debt and no maturity on drawn debt until March 2028
-- Cash position improved to GBP93m at 30 June 2022 from GBP88m
at 31 March 2022
-- Completed head office relocation to net zero carbon building
unlocking GBP0.5m of annual admin cost savings

Allan Lockhart, Chief Executive, commented : "First quarter trading is in-line with our expectations and is underpinned by resilient operational metrics. We continue to make progress on our Work Out disposals, and we are seeing high occupancy, strong cash collection and consistent leasing outperformance despite the more challenging economic backdrop.

Our balance sheet and debt maturity profile have never been better and we are well placed for a period of economic uncertainty. Given our portfolio positioning, clear strategy and good execution to date, we are confident in our ability to deliver our strategic aim of a consistent 10% total accounting return."

[gbjbaanb] 18/6/2022 20:40

From simplywall.st:

2023 revenue forecast increased from UK£50.5m to UK£62.3m.
EPS estimate unchanged from UK£0.12 at last update.
Consensus price target of UK£1.05 unchanged from last update

[nickrl] 08/6/2022 19:11

They definitely won't make 7.4p anytime soon but 6-6.5p is supportable which at current share price is 6.5 - 7% yield. Others yield less on similar discount not that i see anyone taking them out compared to others is more plausible.

[mindthestash] 08/6/2022 16:12

Thank you that very helpful and explains the softness in market over the last couple of days.

A 7.4p divi is not a given going forward, it needs rents firming and or buying new yielding properties that can support that margin over costs. I'll hold happily but Can't say I'm a buyer at 90p

[jg231] 08/6/2022 15:41

The 1.7p is income that they received in the last accounting period on assets that they've now sold. That was mostly the pubs business at £7.8m but also £2.9m of lost income from other disposals (see p20 of the presentation). They lost money on the disposals (at least vs their book values) but that is reflected in the NTA. So the question is where they get this income back from to get back to dividend cover. They are saying they have identified cost savings, think there will be a further rebound in rents post covid and that they can reinvest their excess capital. It doesn't seem too stretching to get back to 7.4p per share of EPRA earnings. They are definitely not trying to treat valuation gains as a way to cover the dividend.

[mindthestash] 08/6/2022 15:12

Thank you JG231. It's really helpful to understand that
The earnings per share covered by the ordinary business of rental and associated income from properties less all usual costs is 5.7p.

Assuming that is correct Could I therefore test my consequential understanding with the forum.

1. The remaining 1.7p of the divi comes from either net property sales profit?
2.or the remaining 1.7 of the divi is from the accounting treatment of a non cash valuation uplift?