Interesting comments in the CT Property trading update today where valuers have taken a red pen to much of the portfolio:
"The Company’s high street retail holdings saw a relatively limited valuation decline of 1.0 per cent over the quarter as an already attractive yield profile was supported by a number of leasing successes, maintaining near-full occupation." |
@huge if they had shifted anything im sure we would have had an RNS and suspect changed mkt circumstances over last qtr have stalled them whilst new price agreed. |
CREI announced profit on a shopping centre disposal today,
Still waiting a progress update on the work out shopping centres disposals. This is what they announced on 26th July;
"90% of planned Work Out asset disposals currently under offer at pricing consistent with March 2022 valuations..."
So hopefully they have completed on at least some of these. 24th November is date for preliminary results on their website albeit they say this is provisional. |
Agree I don't see NRR properties falling in value by too much. I think most of the damage was done during covid. The LTV covenants are at 50% so NRR have plenty of cover. Goldman Sachs is predicting a 15%-20% fall for UK commercial property over the next few years. If values did drop 20% then LTV would only be 42.5%. |
surely covid was as bad as it can get for NRR |
ammons Next have also reported they have achieved rent reductions but guess it how much is reflected in ERVs already |
Dunno if this sort of thing will affect NRR but, from todays results at SDRY:
".........Rent payments to landlords during FY22 totalled £71.7m (FY21: £45.4m). The figure was higher in the current year as a result of £15.7m rent deferrals which were paid (FY21: £24.0m total deferral). As at the end of the year we have £8.2m remaining rent deferrals which we expect to settle in the next year or to crystallise as permanent waivers.
At the end of FY22, we had renewed a total of 55 store leases, out of a store base of 220, for an average lease commitment of three years at an average reduction of 45%. We anticipate achieving this level of reduction across the remainder of the portfolio." |
11% yield on an Asda bond now.
Not sure what's cheap anymore. |
NRR hasn't been a reliable long term investment judging by the 5 year price and dividends paid.
Given the current market woes and dodgy Government budget there isn't much that can be classed as reliable. |
Huge given we've had no RNS on workout locations there is a risk that the change of mkt sentiment has stalled selling the remaining assets on. Its not a disaster if this is the case as they are income producing. Not sure what its going to take for REITs to stabilise and be seen as long term reliable investments. All we can do is take advantage and collect the divis. |
NRR falling with the rest of the sector and its on a massive 9%+ yield and 47% discount now.
I reckon they should be ok since "...No maturity on drawn debt until 2028 and no exposure to interest rate rises on drawn debt" and the recent monthly updates on commercial property valuations have been showing retail as flat whereas the other sectors such as industrial and offices are trending down.
In July they said "90% of planned Work Out asset disposals currently under offer at pricing consistent with March 2022 valuations". I doubt the current environment will be helping but it would be good to get an update on this.
portfolio breakdown:
Shopping Centres (Core) 34%
Retail Parks 26%
Shopping Centres (Regeneration) 25%
Shopping Centres (Work Out) 14%
Other 1% |
chucko1 agreed but if Truss splashes the cash around will be a changed outlook at least in the short term and this sector will bounce back. It will suppress the inflation peak and give BoE some wriggle room although still expect 0.5% next week. |
A sensible energy policy from Truss will also help.
Bought back one or two at this level. But not more, as the overall outlook for most financial assets is hardly sunny. |
andplus indeed but being dragged down with rest of them despite not being exposed to hospitality or tenants dependant on discretionary spending |
Fuuuuuuck!!!! |
CWA1 not sure M&G have filled this in properly as they had c6% so have dropped below 5% hence the RNS. |
compared to AEW UK REIT and Ediston REIT, NewRiver's significant shareholders' percentage of shares is substantial less at around 25% compared to 50-60% for the others. Why is that would you think? My thoughts are has NewRiver has a dilutive rights issue? or was it that the pubs deterred? Perhaps existing and other potential significant shareholders do not rate the portfolio as much as NR does? |
Good points Nick. I am prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that they have a decent pipeline of investments. The read across from AEWU is that the bargains are out there. Just as long as they don’t buy any pubs! |
Ex the 3.3p dividend today, paid 2/9 |
Lord Gnome their updates always written to read well!
Anyhow I did dabble here before FY results as i felt it was in a better space so good to see a modest improvement but with would sound a note of caution about how much more upside they will have on NRI looking at the ERV outturn this qtr especially with economic headwinds ahead. Work out assets are in the books at 90m they said they were going to dispose of five this year so potentially another 40-45m on the cash pile. With modest capex currently be good to know what the plan is more all this cash they are accumulating as no debt is due till 2028. |
That update reads well. This is now very investible again. |
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