Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[kenmitch] 28/7/2019 14:58

HugePants.

Aren’t Intu and Hammerson terribly exposed to the carnage on the High Street - i.e CVAs and also successful retailers like Next and Primark demanding and getting rent reductions, whereas NRR are not?

Also just how much of the NRR share price drop is thanks to Woodford selling rather than NRR negatives? Any guesses as to size of NRR NAV drop? Insignificant or not? And if significant where is the key problem area?

[hugepants] 28/7/2019 10:46

HMSO and INTU results this week. It will be interesting to see if their footfall is falling as fast as NRR. Down 5 per cent in 2 years and no sign it's reducing.

[chucko1] 27/7/2019 15:06

Fenners66, although their choice of language was not unambiguous, property professionals would tend to speak of gains and losses in terms of cap rates and net yields. It is likely that that is what they were conveying here, though not certain. Is this something you have any experience of? If so, I would be interested to know more.

Typically, book value would take into account capital expenditures over its life. So in that respect, they are comparing like with like. This was the accounting treatment I certainly used (not that I either had, not sought, a different approach) when overseeing the winding down of a commercial real estate portfolio the past decade or so. Under GAAP. And audited by a Ministry of Finance!!

I am not sure you know what you are talking about “no ifs, no buts”. It seems not. I try and take more care when inspecting the company’s statements and make allowance for variations in language that will emerge from time to time. Now, you are likely to say that this is the case as they attempt to deceive. Possible, but on balance, very unlikely.

[fenners66] 27/7/2019 13:33

chucko1

"the sale of Asda at 1.6% below book"
"intended to show a loss versus book value.

I believe the opposite is the case,"

If the RNS says it was below book value - that is a loss compared with the last valuation in the accounts - no ifs no buts.

If you are trying to say that since it was originally acquired it has increased in value that is a different matter - however , you also have to then understand just how it got to the last book value, was it through a program of additional works and cost ? Or merely a paper revaluation exercise.

The clear point is that it is less than book value and that can be repeated.

[hpcg] 27/7/2019 09:49

mkerr - is the market undervaluing the assets or discounting them appropriately? NAV is certain to be lower at the next annual report than the previous.

[flyfisher] 27/7/2019 08:52

The st elli centre was acquired for £29.2m and 7.5% niy.
The asda store and petrol station were sold for £17.9m and 6.7% niy.
Presumably they still own the retail part of the complex.

[chucko1] 27/7/2019 00:18

This recent statement regarding (including) the sale of Asda at 1.6% below book has been commented upon by 2 or 3 posters here. I am therefore surprised that some other posters, who have represented themselves as property experts, did not query what was implied - i.e. that this figure was intended to show a loss versus book value.

I believe the opposite is the case, that it was sold at a NIY of 6.7% versus a book NIY of 8.3%. This would be consistent with the extraction of gains via recycling that they refer to more generally. And in keeping with other recent sale/purchase packages.

The quantum of these gains is not as great as the reduction in NAV being suffered at present, but the former is a cash item (which they can elect to take upfront or pay as an annuity) and the latter not so. These are steps towards a more covered dividend, as they state, especially if the recycling rate of 5% of their portfolio can be maintained. The risk would be that they are exchanging good property for bad to fill an immediate income gap, and the the overall occupancy rate therefore experiences increasing pressure. Time will judge this, but I would bet against this management playing those sorts of foolish games.

[m_kerr] 26/7/2019 21:41

management can and should react and adapt their strategy based on share price performance. with shares trading at roughly 30% discount to NAV, they should be buying back shares instead of acquiring more assets. buying shares for cancelling is not as exciting as buying new assets, though. i note that NRR did float the idea of buying back shares if the market continued to undervalue their prospects, but they haven't discussed it recently.

[davvero] 26/7/2019 12:29

Hi guys, thanks for confirming.... I just checked at yes, I have got it now as well...
Now we only need the share price to go up and up

[scrwal] 26/7/2019 12:23

Me as well - just need to wait a couple of months for the tax credit to hit my ISA.

[davvero] 26/7/2019 12:06

has anyone got today's dividend Yet?

[fenners66] 25/7/2019 20:34

hpcg - I agree its not up to the company to manage the share price its up to them to manage the business so the share price takes care of itself.

In fact you start to worry when a BOD gets more interested in managing the share price and their share options than the company

[hpcg] 25/7/2019 19:51

I'm not sure why a company should ever have to explain its share price unless there is inside information. Explaining and reacting to share price moves relative to the fundamental macro and micro data is literally the job of the investor. I think 190p is about fair value; my buying finished in the 167 region.

[chucko1] 25/7/2019 16:21

Woody 25%, StJ a bunch and HFs jumping on the bandwagon. No one said investing in NRR was going to be easy in the face of the current and future retail environment, but at this price, the risk/reward stands up pretty well against many alternatives.

To be plain, by buying at 170p or so, you are profiting from Woodford investors’ losses. If you don’t, someone else will, so don’t feel bad.

[marksp2011] 25/7/2019 16:05

Catering share PRICE?COULD IT BE WOODY SELLING 25% of the company in a month?

[2wild] 25/7/2019 15:57

Nice to see these hit 180p on good turnover. See 194 in next few weeks.

[ramellous] 25/7/2019 14:59

Divi being reinvested tomorrow

[eeza] 25/7/2019 14:33

Hold your nerve.

Is you a man or is you a mouse.



Sqeeeeeeeeek

[hugepants] 25/7/2019 14:25

The updates from this lot always come across as of the "mindless optimism" variety. Reminds me of the INTU updates 12 months ago. They don't even attempt to explain the cratering share price (so much for community shopping centres being immune)


"Like-for-like footfall across our shopping centres declined -2.5%, outperforming the UK benchmark by 70 bps"

I really hope that's year on year. Not quarter on quarter!

Still holding.

[marksp2011] 25/7/2019 13:00

Specto

Ahh so your complaint is about shopping centres per se. Now I understand. The "comanaged" comment was a red herring

[ramellous] 25/7/2019 12:58

Well at least the share price is improving so that’s good eh??

[fenners66] 25/7/2019 10:50

Looks like they lost about £450k on the sale of the ASDA assets but would get that back in 6 months from the new acquisitions.

Average retail rent gained in the qtr but what about yr on yr?

Occupancy of the pub estate fell 0.3% in 3 months - that would be 1.2% pa.

[fenners66] 25/7/2019 10:44

Does not yet say they have even got to underlying dividend cover - just the direction of travel.