Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 15/8/2018 21:30

Woodford got too much money too quickly and effectively competed against himself in the companies he chose. Anyway what Woodford does or doesn't do has zero bearing on the economic performance of the company, only on the ebb and flow of share price.

[spectoacc] 15/8/2018 21:10

@fenners66 - I don't think so, very few gurus last the course. I'm admittedly still waiting for Buffet & Munger to implode, & they can't have long left :) But Anthony Bolton was a prime example with FCSS, and Bill Miller in the US even better.

Woodford bet big on out of favour tobacco & pharma, and eventually came good in a big way, over many years. That seems to be it, in a nutshell. Even worse is to be given far too much money to manage, just hastens being found out.

The alternative view is - buy all his funds now. WPCT is on a tidy discount atm.

[fenners66] 15/8/2018 19:19

Makes you wonder if the reputation he earned at Invesco was on the backs of others

[chucko1] 15/8/2018 17:41

The issue of Woodford owning is only relevant if he starts to sell. In fact, he has been buying this year, even as the assets in the Income Fund have fallen 40ish percent.

Some would say that this is a bad omen, given the poor recent stock picking by NW, but that is foolish. He is generally a good stock picker, although his current problems with WPCT and the Income Fund are big issues. Remember, most of his picks do well, but recently, those that have done badly have done especially badly! Many down 70%.

There is no other property stock that I would own over this one, or none that immediately come to mind. If you are worried about short term stuff, then I can see the issue. If you can stomach the volatility (it’s 50% more volatile than LAND and BLND, as examples and 4x as volatile as AEWU) then why the heck worry about the odd 20% swings in price? It’s cheap already here and another 10% move in a balanced(ish) portfolio is just noise. The assets in the REIT are good for about 10% a year, anyway.

[hpcg] 15/8/2018 17:31

salchow - not necessarily. Nor was I painting my putative Woodford sale as a bad thing; since leaving Invesco his judgement has been poor and his execution in the market even worse.

[cousin jack] 15/8/2018 16:40

hpcg - 230 would give NRR yield over 9% if divi maintained. I'm happy to hold at current levels and can only hope I'd be brave enough to add if it fell to that !

[salchow] 15/8/2018 11:11

hpcg - if Woodward were selling there would be announcements so I don't think so.

[essentialinvestor] 15/8/2018 10:55

I have a few hundred shares in SHB, that's the sum total of my sector
holding atm. The downside betting is..the EU offer will not be acceptable
to sections of the Tory party, Johnson (assuming he's cleared) challenges
May, then a man who has said..fuk business.. becomes PM. It paints a very vulgar picture.

[hpcg] 15/8/2018 10:38

I wouldn't rule out Woodford selling as the source of the downward pressure. Both income focus and equity income funds have holdings. This was apparently the case with PSDL recently. I'm more positive on the estate and their strategy having looked more closely. Whilst I have bought some I do anticipate that the price to go down, and especially so if there is a seller. The most compelling reason to sell IMO is the Sterling exposure, and the NAV and income is relatively well underpinned. 225-230p my next buy point.

[salchow] 15/8/2018 10:27

fenners88 - I think we have been through this before but it is all down to location. You can rent a property in a retail park half a mile from the Trafford Centre and I have no idea of the level of rents but I suspect they would be very much cheaper. The public, however, want to go to the Trafford Centre so that will remain successful even if the retail park were to make all of their units rent free.

[salchow] 15/8/2018 10:12

SpectoAcc - when I looked at INTU a few years ago, aside from owning the iconic Trafford Centre which is always crazily busy the company had a good number of centres that didn't impress me at all. I also don't hold CAL but noticed yesterday that they reported increased footfall and very good occupancy but it doesn't seem to make any difference to the price. NRR also have very good occupancy and when I read their reports they sound like people who know what they are doing.

With regard to whether I would hold a share if the yield went to zero that is easy. I don't normally contemplate shares with nil yields. Not completely true all the time because I always have one or two outright gambles but I treat them like I would putting a bet on the Derby and they only constitute a very minor proportion of my equities.

[essentialinvestor] 15/8/2018 09:27

Neil used to have the midas touch. He holds NRR is his income focus fund
from memory, which has been hammered.

[spectoacc] 15/8/2018 09:16

A possible hard Brexit to come too.

I find the best question to ask when looking at something like this is - "Would I still want to own it if the yield went to zero?". Covers the worst-case scenario (& the answer is nearly always "no").

Still got NRR on watchlist mind.

[fenners66] 15/8/2018 09:09

40 More Homebase stores to close, HofF presumably consolidating / renegotiating rents.

Whether NRR rents to them or not , market rent rates will come under pressure , sentiment is not getting any better.

[salchow] 15/8/2018 08:53

This is very much in falling knife territory. Has been for a while in truth and has broken down again. Perhaps it was just the Woodford purchases keeping it up in recent years.

On the other hand I don't see the dividend under threat at the moment. So maybe it will finish up yielding 12%!

[gswredland] 15/8/2018 05:59

Yield must surely be 8% here? Sustainable too?Not shown on ADVN financials section

[nisbet] 25/7/2018 17:03

Kay Chaldecott has over 25 years’ experience of developing and managing regional shopping centres throughout the UK from having worked with Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC (now Intu Properties PLC). Kay was appointed Managing Director of the Shopping Centre business and served as a main Board Director from 2005 to 2011.

Since then, Kay has pursued her Non-Executive Director’s career and is a member of the boards of St. Modwen Properties PLC and Lichfields planning and development consultancy, and is a member of the Advisory Board of Next Leadership. Kay is a member of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors and has a breadth of industry knowledge covering the retail development process, retail mix and leasing and shopping centre operations.

[nisbet] 25/7/2018 15:47

Kay Chaldecott bought £100,000 of shares on 20th July at 279p. Non-exec investing her own money which makes me very relaxed about doing the same.

[essentialinvestor] 25/7/2018 11:35

Hp, I bought a small amount of SHB on the dip this morning fwiw.
They don't look cheap, however it's quality longer term,
yield negible though.
If we do exit without a trade deal, there may be some great opportunities around.
I'm really hoping that's not the scenario the UK faces.

[chucko1] 25/7/2018 09:03

hpcg, it looks (from their recent updates) like NRR have scored well on the management of voids. It's the retail parks and shopping centres with multiple voids which are problematic, as reletting becomes difficult when footfall is already impaired. And that is more likely with the failure of at least a key tenant and then also accompanied by other failures or otherwise lease expiries. NRR tend not to have many, if any, such key tenants.

[hpcg] 24/7/2018 17:02

NRR promotes to investors that it offers lower lease rates than the competition. My understanding, which may be way off course, is that pension funds are the ones with their heads in the sand. They don't want to offer leases at lower rates as that could mark the NAV down. They would rather have empty units and pretend. Actively managed REITs where occupancy is transparent are more likely to want to either fill or re-purpose their voids.

[chucko1] 24/7/2018 16:44

I would be more concerned with the escalation of lease payments post teaser rate expiry from a pure income/expense point of view. It's the net income that is falling off a cliff.

I suppose that most of the smaller convenience retail outlets within the NRR portfolio would not have suffered such financial jiggery pokery.

[hpcg] 24/7/2018 16:29

What PE did to plump up DEBs figures prior to relisting was sign long leases with near term teaser rates and a long term escalator. That is the point of IFRS 16, to recognise in the balance sheet all obligations for the lifetime of the leased asset.

[spectoacc] 24/7/2018 16:04

My understanding is that DEB have a large number of long leasehold obligations that are dragging them down. Haven't looked at pension deficit. They've done well to clear some of the debt p/e loaded them up with - but was it at the expense of investment? Can't say I've been in a Debenhams store for a couple of years (& therein lies the rub).

One thing we can all agree on - NRR isn't DEB :)