Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[mrtenpercent] 13/9/2018 15:53

NRR now yielding 8.5% if the income continues to flow. No chance of another placing for the foreseeable future so the income depends on the current estate plus any churn they can manage. I agree the chart is horrible. Next support around 237 but that goes back to 2014 and I'm never confident that support levels work after a long interval. Obviously NRR isn't going to zero, so presumably there will be a recovery in the share price somewhere. But I have no idea where that support might be. Any suggestions?

[fenners66] 13/9/2018 15:16

15 more Lloyds branches to close - 15 more properties on the market.

Noticed a headline yesterday but did not read it - that 11,000 shops have closed.

[chucko1] 13/9/2018 13:53

Yes, chart is bad. Value is great, so I own whatever! But stopped thinking about adding more - possibly more woes to come, and Woodford’s issues are not likely to go away. He lowered his holding of PFG from 25% to 23% as people exit his funds and NRR is hardly immune from this possible liquidation. All in all, better entry point quite possible, but this share is soooooooooo valuable!! (but increasingly short term risky).

[spectoacc] 13/9/2018 13:51

Certainly a falling knife.

[hpcg] 13/9/2018 13:43

I'm out. More fright from the JLP numbers no doubt. Partly this has hit my nominal stop loss of 1 year's dividends, but also clearly it will be possibly to buy in cheaper at a later date. Chart remains horrific.

[mrtenpercent] 06/9/2018 20:07

Update - the short interest is more than I thought, its 9.28% :-

GB00BD7XPJ64 NEWRIVER REIT PLC 28340629.3 305385624.95 9.28%



Thanks to poster Mount Teide on the CAML thread for putting me on to this source.

[minerve] 05/9/2018 16:31

"Main takeaways..selling down Lloyds and increasing exposure
to UK house builders..as the later offer more ..compelling value."

I am surprised it has taken him a while to see that one. I saw that 18 months ago. That is why I never bought into Lloyds when you could get 8% yield on some of the housebuilders.

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2018 15:14

Well speed, would think the man must be worth in the 10's of millions,
that's probably an underestimation. So he's set up for life, probably multiple
lifetimes. I'm very shocked at what's occured, and it takes a bit to shock me
these days.

[spectoacc] 05/9/2018 15:11

I'll buy into his funds when I see the "The man who cannot make money" article ;)

[speedsgh] 05/9/2018 15:08

EI - re Woodford. Oh how the mighty fall... or should that be fail? ;-)

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2018 13:14

For anyone following Mr Woodford, his latest update was
out yesterday. Main takeaways..selling down Lloyds and increasing exposure
to UK house builders..as the later offer more ..compelling value.

He appears belatedly more circumspect on Capita,
having previously found the CPI valuation compelling!.

I came across an article on Neil from 2015 'The man who cannot stop making money'.

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2018 11:44

It was the market that effectively forced a reconsideration
by selling down the value of their equity. And that view was on the money.

The HMSO BOD then authorised the current share buy back,
you wonder what value creating ideas they will concieve of next.

[chucko1] 05/9/2018 11:35

The near purchase by HMSO of INTU (was it near, in fact?) does raise questions. Odey, for one, loathe INTU. They are short 1.84% of the stock having increased the short in July of this year. My recollection is that they have been short since over 300p.

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2018 11:21

HMSO is only 20 pence from the pre Klepierre bid lows.
At least HMSO's novel idea of enhancing shareholder value by bidding for Intu
never came to fruition.

[hpcg] 05/9/2018 10:59

The market has look at Intu, hence the share price trajectory. Easily the worst placed IMO.

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2018 10:53

Has anyone had a look at Intu, very ugly.

[essentialinvestor] 04/9/2018 15:44

I can just about understand why BLND authorized their buy back,
large discount to NAV, LTV around 26%, paying out a fat dividend
so a saving on less shares in issue. The HMSO buy back however, looks unwise,
particularly given their stated aim of reducing gearing.

[spectoacc] 04/9/2018 15:35

"I still think that the most risky properties are the medium-sized sheds in second-rate locations, mostly edge-of-town. There are very few new operators coming through to occupy the space when they fall vacant. And the vacancy costs for landlords are breathtaking. Doesn't apply to NRR much though."

Agreed - see my post 603 example above.

Otherwise - fair points about there still being units taken and rents uplifted, but remember all of this is without a recession and with record high employment.

Interesting BLND/LAND ramp in the Sunday Times at the weekend, saying basically the discounts price in more than enough downside risk. Not sure I'd agree but I do think NRR already prices in a lot (notwithstanding the lean towards pubs - take a look at the state of MARS's share price for eg).

[speedsgh] 04/9/2018 14:55

Quality debate on here at present which, dare I say it, is quite unusual on advfn! Much appreciated.

[mrtenpercent] 04/9/2018 14:15

chuck01: 'The argument that ALL rents will be pressurised by the current situation simply has not yet be born out '

Yes that's true, and I hope I haven't said anything to make it look like I think all rents are going to fall.

Here's another swallow: a friend owns a secondary shopping centre in the West Midlands. Anchored by a supermarket with 6 units and flats over. Car park at the rear. Sensible service charge covenants in the leases. Well managed by a specialist firm. Recently hit by an end-of-lease vacation of one of the units, re-let after a short void period to a nail bar at slightly HIGHER than the previous passing rent, swiftly followed by a renewal of the adjacent unit where the tenant argued that the nail bar had not been professionally advised and the evidence was therefore compromised. But in the end the renewal was agreed at the same rent as the nail bar, ie: an uplift. So that will cascade along the rest of the parade. The uplift wasn't much but my point is that it is wrong to think that all retail rents are going to fall. That simply isn't true. Did I mention Mountain Warehouse? The owner was recently reported as saying he is still having to pay the odd premium to secure the best sites.

Just noticed:
*the NRR share price is at an interesting support level, see:
*Quite a large trade this morning,classed apparently as a Buy:
10:55 - 04/09 Buy 246185 @ 260.25p £640,696.46
* But still over 5% short:

[essentialinvestor] 04/9/2018 13:47

I would keep some cash on hand for sector opportunities.
Without getting drawn in to the interminable Brexit debate,
we are approaching a crunch point within months.
If the Tory party struggle to get a deal passed by the HoC,
that's when you want some funds available.

[chucko1] 04/9/2018 13:31

The takeaway from that is that whoever said “location, location, location” might have had a point. It’s still too early to extrapolate anything here too far, but these relettings statistics are by some distance the key metric for me in terms of judging NRR’s medium-term direction of travel (for a given share price and acquisition yield).

Let say this year that 4% of their rent roll is affected by bust retailers. Meaningless in of itself. It’s the actual annual like-for-like rent roll that matters so perhaps we hear too much about the parlous state of retail without considering the reaction function actually being experienced by NRR and some others. The argument that ALL rents will be pressurised by the current situation simply has not yet be born out and I believe the certitude that it will be may prove to be a mistake.

[speedsgh] 04/9/2018 12:44

Thanks to link provided by ShareSoc's @marben100 on Twitter...

Cycle Republic completes new 10yr lease on former Maplin unit within one month of unit becoming vacant at rent level 25%+ higher than previous passing rent. CAVEAT: Just one piece of evidence highlighted by NRR themselves ("one swallow doesn't a summer make"; they will obviously not highlight the negative stories within their portfolio) but of interest all the same.

Cycle Republic opens at Allison Court Retail Park, Gateshead -

[essentialinvestor] 04/9/2018 11:23

Interesting post.