Neuropharm Share Discussion Threads

[daytraders] 23/3/2010 12:18

Boobly - plenty of bonds around at 2%/3% for 6 months :)

[joeblogg2] 23/3/2010 11:55

Good to see they have conserved cash but how long do they need when it is nearly 4 months and there was interest around June last year??
"•᠐0;Discussions in connection with the sale or merger of the Company or its assets are ongoing but early stage"

Possibly one of the parties talking were probably wanting the company to run out of cash and buy it even cheaper ??

[boobly] 23/3/2010 11:16

....errr....What`s the interest rate ?
1% .........£60000 !
But a very good point .

[daytraders] 23/3/2010 10:10

with GBP6.18 million cash surely the interest on this will cover what would be cashburn now, as there out goings will be low now, so more cash to hand out on windup.

[warwick69] 23/3/2010 10:04

Hadronuk how do you see it on plus as a sell, when i look at plus they just show all trades and price there is no idication of buy or sell what screen are you looking at can you show a link?

[lombiff] 23/3/2010 10:03

Hadron - definitely a buy - couldn't resist

[hadronuk] 23/3/2010 09:48

Lombiff
Shown on Plus as a sell at 8.17am.

[warwick69] 23/3/2010 09:44

i wish i had funds available to buy as i agree Lombiff this is clearly a no brainer but as such i can not understand why share price has not moved nearer current cash value? somebody including the MMs seem to want to keep it down

[lombiff] 23/3/2010 09:20

No, but I did buy 30K this morning at 9.83p - is it showing yet?

[liarspoker] 23/3/2010 09:10

Was that 19K buy yours Lombiff ?

[lombiff] 23/3/2010 09:04

Warwick - agreed - worst case would be winding up and let's say we'd end up with just £4.5m for distribution - that's 15p (I think it will be more like £5m (16.5p) unless it drags on for another six months or so). So, from where we are now, we get a 40-50% upside, and we don't have to sell anything on the market to get it, as it's just a cash distribution. Seems like a no-brainer (so probably too good to be true!!)

I actually think the winding up announcements are serious, but are really made to keep the bidder honest and to speed up the DD process. There is certainly value in the IP - last year, Edison reckoned this was £3m (assuming zero value for NPL-2008), but also without the two new pipeline products. In my view, there is still value in NPL-2008 as well, especially as the new Phase III trial is already designed.

So, I'm still hopeful for a bid of £8-10m (25p-30p) and am happy to buy more knowing that worst case is 40-50% within about three months.

Each to their own, but I'm buying . . .

All the best

[warwick69] 23/3/2010 08:29

from the chairmans report .

"This understanding and a detailed analysis of the SOFIA study data confirm that negative conclusions about the efficacy of NPL-2008 may not be justified and further study in children and adolescents with Autistic Disorder was warranted"

this clearly shows that there should re some residual value in the companies Intelectual Property Rights re NPL-2008 as well as some of the other programes. This must be of value to an other Pharma company.

I still feel that with cash return and residual sale value shareholders should still see more than 20p A SHARE.

[hadronuk] 23/3/2010 07:37

Less all wind up costs and cash expended this year.
Anyone care to estimate wind up costs? £1m?

[gosgos] 23/3/2010 07:34

31,536,697 = £.196 per share

[pelleeds1980] 23/3/2010 07:07

£6.18million cash at year end 09 anyone know total shares in issue to work out cash per share equivalent?

[boobly] 22/3/2010 11:38

ssssshhhhh !

Quiet , ain`t it ?

Nice little flurry of buying first thing , thought we might have ticked up :>(

[warwick69] 17/3/2010 17:01

all that is due before month end is interim statement half year results thats all? as they have allready commented on cash position that was all that was important in said report, so not expecting anything more until a firm offer is made, that is not time dependent.

[joeblogg2] 17/3/2010 15:58

warwick, we are supposed to have result by EOM if like last year so lets hope this is all concluded fairly as it has been very painful so far!!!

[warwick69] 17/3/2010 15:54

the MM's have put a massive spread on this to put off any dealing, just allowing PJ to scalp away on small buys and sells. Bring on more news the sooner the better to end this painful process.

[warwick69] 15/3/2010 08:44

I am still very surprised that this has not risen to mid teens on further speculation that a deal will now more than likely go through at between 20 and 30p given cash value. still only values all the projects at a fraction of previously percieved value.

[lombiff] 13/3/2010 01:06

Thanks ihnc - yes, I meant "All the best to all longs" - senior moment!!

However, I also agree with your post that, in a way, the announcement limits our upside. The days of hoping for 160p (and my R8!!) are long gone.

All the best to all longs (and I mean that most sincerely!!)

Hughie !!

[ihavenoclue] 12/3/2010 16:26

Good luck Longs ? LOL One way or another this is a 2 month investment. I really do think it will be sold but the threat of winding up and recieving 15p a share will make sure any bid around 30p is accepted IMHO

[lombiff] 12/3/2010 09:44

Just grabbed 30K for starters . . .

My reading of Piper Jaffrey is that they are not dealing on their own account (they can't do that, and in my view will not risk their company's reputation for the sake of a few dollars trading stock of a piddly U$5m cap value company). They are institutional brokers, so they probably have one or two clients with short positions, and perhaps several others with long positions - when these other clients add to or close a long position, it changes PJ's net position, and they have to declare their resulting net position each day as they are linked to the bid process.

Other views welcome, but they are not trading on their own account.

Good luck all longs

[lombiff] 12/3/2010 09:32

ihnc/Fair - I'm not sure what the IP is worth - but one thing is for sure - it's not worthless! Going back to the Edison report - at that time, we had £10m cash, so their valuation for the IP was between £3m and £40m, depending on success or otherwise of NPL-2008. So, if NPL is written off completely as a failure (unlikely but possible), then we had £3m in IP (10p per share) for the other stuff. Since then, we've announced two more compounds/screening products in the pipeline, with shorter times to revenue generation. It depends how much work has been done on the new compounds, but they must be worth something.

So, that's cash (say 15p after winding up expenses), 10p for IP value 12 months ago (with zero value for NPL-2008), plus a little more for the new pipeline.

Worst case scenario is 15p cash for winding up, which is well below my average - as you know, I'm in deep already (have more than 2% of the company) but I'm sorely tempted to grab some more over the next week or so.