Nb Private Equity Partners Share Discussion Threads

[ali47fish] 11/10/2022 12:12

why badtime ? and explain in the 0000- thanks

[badtime] 11/10/2022 10:02

Toying with adding to my holding in the zeros

[spectoacc] 21/9/2022 06:37

NBPE nicely show the risks inherent with all PE ITs atm, & why you can't trust the NAVs. Decent drop in NAV (-2.5% over a month/10% YTD) and yet:

"Valuations of private companies increased by 2.7% in constant currencies"


Nudge up the unlisteds whilst the listeds take a tumble. Unlisted valuations usually 12-28 months behind public markets.

[ali47fish] 21/9/2022 06:33

cant evaluate rns update when they dont mention the comparatives from last update?

[ali47fish] 24/8/2022 16:32

can't believe no one comments on the update of nav and other numbers -from the rise of 3pc today i judges it to be fair

[donald pond] 09/8/2022 07:57

Sent you an answer

[toffeeman] 08/8/2022 15:00

>> Paul De G

you have a message

[donald pond] 08/8/2022 13:20

Actually, that £5m buyback reduces annual fees by £125k. Not of course that any manager should charge fees on cash but some do.

[donald pond] 08/8/2022 08:03

The OCI buyback announcement today is pretty big: adds around 1.5p to NAV and reduces their fees by £30k a year, so at least partially addresses some of skys criticisms

[skyship] 05/8/2022 09:09

DP - thnx for that. An excellent article which I've added to the PE thread Header.

[donald pond] 04/8/2022 10:14

https://www.trustintelligence.co.uk/investor/articles/strategy-investor-diverging-fortunes-in-listed-private-equity-retail-aug-2022?utm_source=Profund&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=newsletter_thursA very interesting read

[skyship] 31/7/2022 12:57

Most of the PE trusts have had a good rally over the past month:

# ICGT @ 1160p. NAV Disc. = 31.4%
# HVPE @ 2380p. NAV Disc. = 39.9%
# NBPE @ 1565p. NAV Disc. = 33.3%
# PIN @ 259p. NAV Disc. = 44.0%

Clearly PIN has missed out and looks the best value of the bunch. It has seen considerable selling pressure recently; but that seems to be drying up, so a further recovery looks likely - a good trade for a continued bounce.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[ali47fish] 31/7/2022 11:58

i thought the reaction of the share price to the last update was positive even tough the volatility seems persistent but i am interested in long term and how knowledgeable investors here are psositioning? would appreciate comments

[spectoacc] 20/7/2022 07:24

DLG is very much not a FTSE100 co - FTSE 250, & about 140th overall.

Agree on debt point - Enterprise Value.

[skyship] 20/7/2022 07:15

Also - all FTSE 100 companies carry debt. The extent of gearing always has to be considered; but it not a red line - business thrives on borrowed money!

[deadly] 19/7/2022 21:41

All portfolios are risky at present, even solid FTSE 100 companies like ADM, DLG etc. are perceived as bad risks at timeslike these. Don't see that NBPE at a huge discount is more risky.

[nexusltd] 19/7/2022 15:51

@ ali47fish. NBPE scenario.
1. Drawn out market turbulence, say two years, so few underlying investments are realised.
2) Zeros repaid by Q3 2024,
3) Bank credit line pulled or reduced.

Where does NBPE get the cash to meet investment commitments made to the underlying investments. If cash is not forthcoming the companies will not meet their growth forecasts or worse, go bust. NBPE may have sell at a disadvantageous price to a competitor.

Your call as to how much risk you are comfortable with in your portfolio.

[spectoacc] 19/7/2022 15:33

Yes fair comment - many buyouts (particularly the big ones) occur at the top, presumably when the buying co's paper is also at its most valuable (even if it's debt, not equity, being used).

But that should apply much less to PE purchases - wonder if it does?

I guess on the mean reversion point - didn't NBPE do +45% on NAV last year? Some would say that's the sign of a brilliantly managed and successful co. But is it the sign of a bubble due to reverse?

[nexusltd] 19/7/2022 15:29

You make valid points.

Regarding PEIT valuation. Indeed individual names can go bust and the trackers do have survivorship bias. The more conservative PEITs tend to have small or zero allocations to venture, & buyouts are fairly robust and heavily mentored. A few names may go bust; but what %? I make no claim that a model could be accurate to better than 1-2%. Is there a better choice of trackers then EQQQ & DIA to use in such a model?

Regarding markets etc. Remember that in the short term sentiment is a huge part of stock pricing. If you examine the record of company takeovers you will observe that most happen near the top or at the top of market P/E valuations; that is when directors feel most confident. Hence the paucity of market transactions at present as evidenced by US bank quarterly reports in the last week. PEITs are comparatively long term investors.

Regarding NBPE gearing. I just wanted to remind the community of a stock specific risk factor in this name.

[ali47fish] 19/7/2022 15:24

this discussion is either too erudite or vacuous -i need o know basically if this is a good investment even if i stay put

[spectoacc] 19/7/2022 14:51

Not unreasonable, but your problem there is that indicies by their very structure don't go to zero. Stocks within them can and do, but the index populates with the next co coming up. A broad survivorship bias that even a widely invested PE IT doesn't have.

Also that listed includes the very successful and profitable - from MSFT to Apple, Alphabet to Amazon (just, sometimes). When PE says "profitable" it nearly always means EBITDA - Earnings Before The Important Bits.

Not saying NBPE & others not possibly reasonably priced here - just that we've had a massive decade-long bubble & are now suffering the mean reversion, and am unconvinced we're even halfway through it (& barely started it on PE NAVs).

Gearing - good point, particularly if this does all drag on a few years, as the 99/00 bust did. Saw an article recently saying the "$X trillions of dry powder" of PE was basically nonsense, as shown by the drying up of listed co takeovers. There's still a few, but with £ down 14% this year, and many stocks halved or more, where's the mass purchase of UK PLC?.

[nexusltd] 19/7/2022 14:45

Regarding NBPE. Remember that it is geared with zero's maturing on 30 September 2022 and 30 October 2024 amounting to USD162mn. When they are repaid the $371 million of
cash and undrawn credit line cash reserved for calls and future investments will be somewhat depleted.

Regarding discount forecasts on PE. Why not estimate value of a PEIT with info we have to hand; such as a composite index of 60% EQQQ & 40% DIA? Some of the underlying holdings are in any case valued against comparable quoted names. We are generally told what % of the portfolio has been valued at a given date, building a valuation forecasting model ought to be straight forward.

[spectoacc] 19/7/2022 07:57

We don't, but significantly lower than here is a given. Agree it makes determining necessary discount very tricky.

"12-18 months behind" said one analyst - tho have been quite a few funding rounds lately like Klarna's fall from $36bn to $6bn. NBPE at least aren't in that comedy category.

Wonder how far away we are from Unicorns going under, not being able to raise cash at all. Hilarious seeing the likes of Liz Truss saying the UK needs more Unicorns. It needs fewer, they're capital sink holes. The food delivery apps and cars-by-post co's are just the latest.