Natwest Share Discussion Threads

[polar fox] 31/7/2024 06:59

The Times - the shadow MPC comes down firmly on the side of No Change:

Bank of England urged to leave interest rates unchanged

Experts at The Times shadow monetary policy committee vote 7-2 in favour of holding the base rate at 5.25 per cent

unquote

I still suspect Bailey will want to wait for the Fed to cut on Sept.18, then cut on Sept.19, always assuming the Fed does not cut this evening.

[bigbigdave] 30/7/2024 06:10

BARCLAYS RAISES NATWEST PRICE TARGET TO 460 (400) PENCE - 'OVERWEIGHT'

[polar fox] 30/7/2024 06:02

We've now got consensus VOTING numbers for Thursday:

Cut 5.......Unchanged 4

It doesn't guarantee that BR will be cut, of course, but the markets seem convinced.

[suetballs] 30/7/2024 05:50

Shame - I thought a retail investor offer was a good idea. We need to promote an enhanced interest in the uk stock market.
Suet

[glavey] 30/7/2024 05:35

No, her point is that it's 'cheaper' to sell to institutions.

[gcom2] 29/7/2024 20:54

They must think it will be worth more in the future.

[kiwi2007] 29/7/2024 19:15

Daily Mail throw cold water on the idea (as they do with anything Labour do - good or bad).

NatWest setback as Labour kiboshes 'Tell Sid' share sale
Rachel Reeves not keen to offer Government's £5.6bn stake to ordinary investors
By EMILY HAWKINS

Hopes of a 'Tell Sid' NatWest share sell-off to the public have been dashed as Labour lines up a sale to institutional investors.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is keen to offer the Government's £5.6billion stake to pension funds, insurers and asset managers, rather than ordinary investors, sources say.

The move is a hammer blow to the bank and retail investors, with critics saying it is a missed opportunity to encourage more people to develop long-term saving and investment habits.

The last Labour government rescued the lender during the 2008 financial crisis and at its peak the taxpayer's stake was 84 per cent.

This month it fell below 20 per cent. The Conservatives planned a sale this summer with former chancellor Jeremy Hunt priming M&C Saatchi to launch a 'Tell Sid' advertising campaign – the slogan used to encourage people to buy shares in British Gas in 1986.

[chiefbrody] 29/7/2024 17:04

Guessing that's a positive for the share price

[polar fox] 29/7/2024 14:53

Breaking:

Reeves just told Parliament that the NatWest retail sale will NOT go ahead. It is one of a whole list of items that will not be proceeded with.

Budget on Oct.30.

[smurfy2001] 29/7/2024 13:41

Erenberg raises NatWest price target to 415 (350) pence - 'buy'
JPMorgan raises NatWest price target to 420 (370) pence - 'overweight'

[scemer] 29/7/2024 13:24

Delph where have you picked that lot up from

[delphiman] 29/7/2024 10:51

NatWest Share Price Forecast For 2024, 2025 And 2026
Month Open Min-Max Close Total,%
2024
Jul 315 313-411 381 21.0%
Aug 381 348-449 401 27.3%
Sep 401 369-433 401 27.3%
Oct 401 381-447 414 31.4%
Nov 414 414-513 475 50.8%
Dec 475 470-552 511 62.2%
2025
Jan 511 511-618 572 81.6%
Feb 572 529-621 575 82.5%
Mar 575 549-645 597 89.5%
Apr 597 597-742 687 118%
May 687 656-770 713 126%
Jun 713 660-774 717 128%
Jul 717 675-793 734 133%
Aug 734 679-797 738 134%
Sep 738 697-819 758 141%
Oct 758 706-828 767 144%
Nov 767 767-953 882 180%
Dec 882 876-1028 952 202%


predicted to hit £10 by close of next year

[skinny] 29/7/2024 09:21

FWIW :-

Berenberg raises NatWest price target to 415 (350) pence - 'buy'

JPMorgan raises NatWest price target to 420 (370) pence - 'overweight'

RBC raises NatWest price target to 365 (360) pence - 'sector perform'

[smurfy2001] 27/7/2024 09:58

Thwaites said: 'Customers are beginning to feel more confident, with activity increasing, and we are well positioned to help unlock growth through our regional network.'

He expects share sale details to emerge in the autumn. Neither Nat West and Labour commented on whether a public share sale looked likely.



The figures were released as NatWest reported earnings results showing pre-tax profits slipped 4.1% to £1.7bn over the three months to the end of June, compared with a year earlier. However, that was better than the £1.3bn than analysts had forecast.

It helped push NatWest shares up by as much as 9.1% at one point on Friday, hitting its highest level since February 2015.

[polar fox] 26/7/2024 20:12

Various articles this evening online, that economists say a 5-4 vote by the MPC next week in favour of a rate CUT is looking increasingly possible. Talk is that the governor might have the casting vote. This would explain the consensus view.
There is obviously going to be a lot of comment in the days ahead. Stay tuned.

[chiefbrody] 26/7/2024 17:14

Yes lots of reasons to hold fire. Only those mortgaged to the hilt screaming for cuts.

[smurfy2001] 26/7/2024 16:49

chiefbrody,

The BOE will hold as inflation needs to overshoot the target.

Be very embarrassing if they cut then go up from the 2 target. We also have energy price rises coming soon.

[applemacguy] 26/7/2024 15:12

JP Morgan put a £3.70 target on NWG barely a few weeks when they were trading around £3.20ish IIRC... I bet they didn't see this coming so soon! Hopefully we'll get a nice upwards revision next week!!

Regards,
AMG

[chiefbrody] 26/7/2024 15:02

If the Fed hold I can see the BOE holding too.

[polar fox] 26/7/2024 14:43

I don't know if this is news, but I use two online sites for daily economic releases/consensus information etc., and both of them are saying

1. The Fed will leave its rate unchanged next Wednesday and

2. The MPC will CUT by 25bps next Thursday. 5.25 drops to 5.0.

I had thought it was a 50/50 situation for the MPC, with a decision not to cut just winning the day. I have noticed very recently, some of the best 1-yr ISA rates being
trimmed ever so slightly, but not connected it to the consensus. Personally, I'm still sitting on the fence, but the consensus is the consensus. We'll see on Thursday.

[polar fox] 26/7/2024 11:36

I've been looking at the 10-yr chart, as rebased in 2022.
There was resistance just above 360, from back in H2 2015, but the market took that out this morning by opening at 363.50, no doubt deliberately. This break now opens the way for a run at the next level of serious resistance, which is just below 400 in the summer of 2015. You can see why a big, round number like that would turn into a ceiling, as the share price descended from a peak of almost 450 in early 2015 - that descent continued all the way down to about 160, after the Brexit vote in 2016. 450 down to 160 in just 18 months or so!

To summarize, now that the share price has traded up to almost 369 this morning, there is serious resistance just below 400 and then the target just below 450. How long it takes to test these levels, is anybody's guess. But it may be a shorter time-frame than I supposed previously.

This share becomes distinctly more interesting by the month. And we have that lovely inverted H&S to thank, encouraging the smart money to buy.

[smurfy2001] 26/7/2024 10:33

NatWest raises profitability forecast