Natwest Share Discussion Threads

[polar fox] 17/7/2024 14:35

Trouble with a capital T!

FT:

Donald Trump has warned Jay Powell not to cut US interest rates before November’s presidential vote, but said if elected he would let the Federal Reserve chair serve out his term if he was “doing the right thing”.

The Republican nominee acknowledged in an interview with Bloomberg News that the central bank would “maybe” cut interest rates before the election on November 5, but added “it’s something that they know they shouldn’t be doing”.
unquote

[polar fox] 17/7/2024 14:08

The Times:

Fed shouldn’t cut interest rates before election, says Donald Trump

Such a move would boost the economy and give some good news to President Biden’s campaign
unquote

If the Fed doesn't cut in September because of this, its next meeting is November 6-7, right after the election on Nov.5. Will it in turn delay any move by the MPC, which is due to meet on Nov.7? Typical Trump. It could all get very messy now.
Powell's term runs until 2026 and will be a consideration for him presumably.

[smurfy2001] 17/7/2024 10:31

A break above 330p then 390p target.

[johnwise] 16/7/2024 08:32

Business activity in West Midlands slowest for six months

The NatWest West Midlands Growth Tracker for June showed a softer improvement in operating conditions locally, with a slower and only fractional increase in new business restricting output growth.

Companies indicated a further increase in their operating expenses, which they associated with higher food, insurance, labour, material and shipping costs. The overall rate of inflation was sharp and quickened since May. In line with an intensification of cost pressures, there was a quicker increase in selling prices.

[polar fox] 15/7/2024 16:10

New ATHs for the DOW and SPX - for the markets, the shooting incident is water under the bridge.

[smurfy2001] 15/7/2024 12:02

Government shareholding in Britain's NatWest falls below 20%

[polar fox] 14/7/2024 08:41

Many thanks, Skinny - I spotted the article and came over here to ask if you still have access and, lo and behold. Pity it doesn't say something of substance!

On IG, the potshot at orange man hasn't had much impact on the weekend trading numbers so far. The DOW closed at 40,000 on Friday and it's down only about 25 points as I type, while the FTSE is down only 15 or so.
On Friday, both the DOW and SPX traded up to new ATHs, so they could be ready for some consolidation possibly. We'll see as the summer progresses.

[polar fox] 12/7/2024 16:36

UK inflation next Wednesday and the consensus numbers are just out:

CPI 2.0 vs 2.0 unchanged
Core 3.4 vs 3.5 - REVISED to 3.5 vs 3.5 unchanged 15/7
RPI 2.9 vs 3.0

I wonder about an unchanged CPI - as I posted last month, a year ago the monthly increase was only 0.1. Assuming this year will match that seems like a bit of a stretch to me, given that the last two months were both 0.3.

So the next MPC is Aug.1 and then Sept.19. Reeves went public yesterday saying that mortgage holders would love a cut in rates, but whether that leads to a cut before Sept. is anybody's guess pending the ONS update. Right now, I sort of doubt it.

[smurfy2001] 12/7/2024 14:33

U.S. banks kick off earnings season with beats across the board:

- JPMorgan: EPS of $4.40 vs $4.27 expected. BEAT ✅
- Wells Fargo: EPS $1.33 vs $1.28 expected. BEAT ✅
- Citigroup: EPS $1.55 vs $1.39 expected. BEAT ✅
- Bank of New York Melon: EPS $1.51 vs $1.42 expected. BEAT ✅

Next Week: Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley. Expect more beats, dividend increases and share buyback announcements.

[johnwise] 12/7/2024 06:43

The last remaining bank in Paddock Wood has closed its doors for the final time.

[johnwise] 11/7/2024 15:11

Four Candles..


Ed Miliband just made blunder that'll cost UK billions and trigger tsunami of legal claims

Just four days into the job and new energy secretary Ed Miliband has already made a decision that will cost the nation a fortune and leave us at the mercy of evil foreign dictators.

Miliband has issued an immediate ban on new drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea, overruling his own officials in the process. His grandstanding move will delight party activists and should horrify the rest of us.

It will drive up domestic energy bills and leave us totally exposed to the next energy shock.


Video: The truth about global warming


VIDEO: A Dearth of Carbon Dr. Patrick Moore

[polar fox] 11/7/2024 13:43

US CPI has dropped from 3.3 to 3.0, beating the consensus of 3.1.
Favourably received, of course. No doubt NY will anticipate a Fed rate cut even more and that feeling will probably spread to the BoE, next MPC Aug.1.

ADD from Yahoo:
Immediately following Thursday's encouraging inflation data, markets were pricing in a roughly 87% chance the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates at its September meeting, up from 75% a day prior, according to data from the CME Group.
unquote

[smurfy2001] 10/7/2024 19:00

After finally breaking 329 I'm targeting 389p.

[johnwise] 09/7/2024 22:13

(Facile objectives – like becoming a ‘clean energy superpower’, whatever that fantasy means – should be ditched.”"anything with ‘green’ in the title should ring warning bells ")


Reeves warned about Wealth Fund’s limitations


UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been warned that Labour’s new National Wealth Fund risks wasting taxpayers’ money unless it sets realistic objectives.

Professor Len Shackleton, an editorial and research fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs, adopted a more cautionary tone.

“I wish this new initiative well, but the NWF needs to be realistic about what government can do,” he said.

“Investment is important, but it needs to be sensible and analysis of potential returns needs to be hardnosed. Facile objectives – like becoming a ‘clean energy superpower’, whatever that fantasy means – should be ditched.”

Prof Shackleton continued: “We need to boost not just the quantity but also the quality of investment. In the past, governments have been far too influenced by fashionable boondoggles — nowadays, anything with ‘green’ in the title should ring warning bells — and have wasted vast amounts of taxpayers’ money.

“Sometimes, pension funds and other private investors who paid too much attention to the government of the day also lost out.”

Prof Shackleton said promises of ‘policy certainty’ are nothing new, with many past governments forced to backpedal due to unforeseen events.

“When, long ago, a previous Labour administration set up the National Enterprise Board, it was justified as promoting advanced technology in profitable firms. But the wind changed, and with rising unemployment, 95% of government funds went into attempts to revive lame ducks.

“The government should always remember that it isn’t just cautious investors who hold new projects back. The mass of regulations and prohibitions, plus an increasingly unfavourable corporate tax regime, inhibit much potential investment spending.

“The government will need to attack these issues as well. But that’s inch-by-inch hand-to-hand fighting, not just making grand declarations and sticking new signs on government offices.”

The National Wealth Fund taskforce includes former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, Barclays CEO C.S Venkatakrishnan, Aviva CEO Dame Amanda Blanc and large institutional investors.


Video: Mark Levin sussed the government scam
The truth about global warming


If Zero CO2 was ever achieved every tree on the planet would die
VIDEO: A Dearth of Carbon Dr. Patrick Moore

[smurfy2001] 09/7/2024 12:21

Presume the heavy falls are the HMG selling down their stake ;)

Expect an RNS soon ;)

[smurfy2001] 08/7/2024 11:52

Reeves says ‘no change’ to interest on commercial bank reserves

[polar fox] 08/7/2024 11:28

Banks doing nicely, hitting new multi-year highs. See the charts above.

Reeves just said, after her speech, that she has asked her Treasury colleagues to provide a full update of the public finances, also the OBR. She then intends to update Parliament later this month, including a date for the Budget.
Based on that, I doubt she will change the NatWest disposal plan in the very S/T, but it could well be mentioned/dealt with when she addresses Parliament, assuming she does that, of course.
I'm going to judge this gov't by its actions, not all the BS words we're hearing at present.

[gcom2] 06/7/2024 20:19

so labour feeling "challenged" after 22 hours in power...

[polar fox] 06/7/2024 14:32

BBC:
Rachel Reeves has issued a damning assessment of the state of the UK’s finances.

The new chancellor of the exchequer said she was inheriting a depleted economy from the Conservatives that would create a “challengeR21; for the new Labour government.

“There’s not a huge amount of money there,” Ms Reeves told the BBC. “I know the scale of the challenge I inherit.”
unquote

When you read stuff like that on the BBC website, you have to wonder whether she might want to speed up the sale of the remaining 20% or so in some way - even just a few billion flowing into the govt's coffers quickly could look like a very good idea to her in the S/T; and it just happens that NWG, LLOY and BARC, for example, are currently breaking up to new multi-year highs. Also, early action would fit in nicely with Labour's wish to 'hit the ground running'.

Whether she changes the existing plan to sell out steadily by 25/26 remains to be seen, but the opportunity is certainly out there.

[skinny] 06/7/2024 12:59

From the date of the election being called :-

[gcom2] 05/7/2024 20:11

no mention of that in the fiscal plani wonder why