Natwest Share Discussion Threads

[svend2] 12/4/2024 21:50

Get the energy costs and oil/gas prices and then food costs grains/cocoa etc under control and the inflation shall fall in line without this everything is up in the air adding to the crises/tension in the Middle East no wonder the governments are paralysed/abstaining from lowering interest rates.

[chiefbrody] 12/4/2024 17:46

Depends if the US lets it.

[polar fox] 12/4/2024 16:35

For info, the FTSE got very close to a new ATH this afternoon. It reached 8044.98, before a bit of Friday profit-taking and that compares with 8047.06 in February last year. We'll see if the market wants to go past 8050 in the near-term.

[polar fox] 11/4/2024 15:19

Muchas gracias.

Hmmm, it doesn't really add a whole lot to what we already know! No doubt the folk at HMT have the article's sentiments fully in mind, which is why it may not go ahead.

[polar fox] 11/4/2024 15:00

Skinny,

Is your Times sub still going? There was an article this morning, which said that the gov't is close to making a final yes or no decision on the possible retail offer and it questioned whether Sid would be listening anyway. Would be useful if you can post it obviously.

[smurfy2001] 11/4/2024 13:56

ECB leaves eurozone interest rates on hold but hints at cut this summer – business live

[polar fox] 11/4/2024 12:54

PPI has risen 'only' 0.2 on the month and the DOW and FTSE have jumped higher (from where they were immediately before the announcement) on IG as a result, in the first few minutes at least. But they're not much changed from last night as I type.

[polar fox] 11/4/2024 06:49

How things are changing.
Also be alert for the US PPI numbers at 1:30 - the consensus is for rises in both PPI and core.

Meantime, Bloomberg:

Investors are signaling the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates just twice this year, starting in September, after a fresh round of hot inflation sent Treasury yields soaring to 2024 highs.

This turn of events was unthinkable at the start of the year, when the consensus view was for six cuts totaling 1.5 percentage points, beginning in March. Swap contracts currently anticipate the Fed’s rate will end the year only about 40 basis points lower than its current level of 5.33%. Options traders added bets on the Fed cutting just once this year, and Wall Street banks began revising their forecasts.

unquote

[johnwise] 10/4/2024 21:38

VIDEO

There will be no interest rate cuts this year.

CPI Inflation Report a Disaster: Inflation Re-Accelerates

[polar fox] 10/4/2024 13:09

On IG, the Dow's trading low so far today is 38,356, down over 500 from last night's NY close. If the Fed chooses not to cut in May and June, the next FOMC is at the end of July, then September. Will rates be cut in Europe before the Fed moves then?

ADD: From Barron's:

The European Central Bank will probably leave interest rates unchanged this week, but it may give clues about whether it’s ready to start lowering borrowing costs at its next meeting in June.

unquote (very timely)

[polar fox] 10/4/2024 12:36

US CPI very disappointing, both measures are a tenth over consensus. CPI up from 3.2 to 3.5, not 3.4 and core unchanged at 3.8, rather than 3.7.
The Fed won't be happy and the DOW has lost over 300 points in seconds on IG.

ADD: Make that over 400 points in 10 minutes.

[chiefbrody] 09/4/2024 19:04

Be a shocker if the next Fed move was up. With the amount the US is printing, inflation gonna be around for a while yet. Boss of JP Morgan thinks rates could go to 8%. Love to see 8% over here and the carnage in the housing market.

[polar fox] 09/4/2024 15:39

Saving rates are falling like ninepins.
For example, the 1-yr cash ISA was at 5.05 on Moneyfacts, now, in no time, the highest is 4.80. Yesterday, Shawbrook returned after the new tax year started at 4.91, with 5.00 just above them; 5.00 was pulled later yesterday, so Shawbrook pulled their 4.91 today and are now back at 4.76. There's a scramble on to lower rates across various maturities; Paragon, Virgin, everyone scrambling.

[polar fox] 09/4/2024 14:41

US CPI tomorrow. A year ago, the monthly increase was only 0.1, which will be very hard to match, so the consensus is a rise from 3.2 to 3.4. That sort of outcome won't sit well with the Fed and a rate cut most likely will be off the table on May 1 at the next FOMC meeting, therefore. The consensus for core inflation is better, a tenth lower than last month, but not enough to move the dial, IMO.

Our headline inflation updates Wednesday next week. Last year, the monthly increase was 0.8 and we should see that beaten. The consensus won't be out until Friday, but I have seen one house forecast of 0.3 lower than last year, y/y 3.4 down to 3.1 therefore. Will the MPC cut on May 9? I doubt it, especially if the Fed stands pat.
But that MPC bunch can be hard to predict...
Next month should see a significant drop as last April's monthly increase was 1.2 and this year we have the energy price cap cut, just implemented. We could see something fairly close to 2% for CPI announced in May.

People are talking about the ECB cutting in June. Might we see the Fed and BoE doing the same? maybe, but who knows? at this stage.

Nice trading, kiwi. No harm in taking some S/T profit.

[smurfy2001] 09/4/2024 11:58

The last time there was an off market purchase was 22 May 2023 (4.95 per cent of the Company’s issued Ordinary Share capital) so keep an eye in May.

[kiwi2007] 09/4/2024 09:57

sold 40% ...Nigel's ban was the best thing that's happened on the market for me for ages...silly price drop. Price might stick here for a bit.. need a clue to see which way it'll develop.

[f56] 08/4/2024 18:46

The UK tend not to give up without a fight in the end!

[smurfy2001] 06/4/2024 19:05

We're kissing 8000, 9000 next?

[chiefbrody] 06/4/2024 14:08

Undeniably cheap big cheap for a reason. Will it ever change. That's all I want to know.

[smurfy2001] 06/4/2024 12:50

Very good article.

This is the debate around the UK. British shares are historically very cheap and have been since the Brexit vote. On the p/e measure of actual declared earnings (‘trailing’), they are 18 per cent below their average of the last 15 years. When compared to the US p/e, British shares are now half price.



Uk is super cheap.

[smurfy2001] 06/4/2024 12:50

Britain must cut stamp duty on share trading to revive flagging stock market, leading City brokers say