Natwest Share Discussion Threads

[kingalf] 27/2/2023 19:51

Looks like NatWest purchased 900,074 shares today, only 278 million to go

[smurfy2001] 26/2/2023 12:11

Are NatWest seriously undervalued?!

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Revolut has rocketed in value in recent years from £1.8 billion in 2018 to a staggering £27.6 billion valuation in a fundraising round in 2021, which briefly made it bigger than NatWest.

[smurfy2001] 23/2/2023 16:27

Why? They are cancelling the shares and increasing EPS. That should bring it increased dividends as well.

[crazi] 23/2/2023 16:14

Whole days gains wiped out since the Yanks opened... pathetic!

[kingalf] 23/2/2023 10:02

If my maths is correct they will be buying approximately 285 million shares so plenty more to go.
They'd probably want to complete the purchase before the 16th March to lower the dividend payout, so lots of support between now and then

[tfergi] 23/2/2023 07:24

Where is this reported Smurf ?

[smurfy2001] 22/2/2023 15:34

Further reduction in government holding.

From 43.97% to 42.95%.

Wonder if NatWest are not bothering with a directed buyback any longer?

[smurfy2001] 21/2/2023 02:01

Analysts at Berenberg lowered their target price on banking group NatWest from 380.0p to 360.0p on Monday, stating "conservative guidance" had provided a floor.

Berenberg said NatWest's updated revenue and cost guidance was "disappointing", in its view, and had led to a 7% fall in the bank's share price on the day of its recent results, despite stronger Q4 earnings and capital returns.

However, while the German bank's earnings per share expectations fell by up to 4% to reflect the bank's updated guidance, it still believes that NatWest can generate a 15.3% full-year 2023 return on tangible equity - rising to more than 16% from FY 2024.

"Moreover, we regard this as a floor," said Berenberg, which reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock. "Specifically, applying more realistic assumptions to NatWest's guidance, alongside a 25 basis point loan loss rate, would increase our forecast RoTE by circa 1.1 percentage point."

[triktrak] 20/2/2023 09:53

NatWest shares and a surprise price movement

hxxps://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/natwest-shares-and-surprise-price-movement-ii526987

[polar fox] 19/2/2023 07:42

Nice work, hllpri.

I'm looking at a 10-yr rebased chart and see a couple of obvious possibilities:
1. The move up from 98 in 2020 topped out at 313 on 2/2 and therefore could be due a significant correction, down to the 200 area looks about right.
2. There may be another wave up still to come, probably to test the pivot around 330 in early 2018.
Too tough to call, IMO, given the huge uncertainties post-Brexit Britain is facing - a situation where you go with your gut.

[hllpri] 18/2/2023 13:47

You might not like reading this but it was quite
clear that share dealings in Nat West had become erratic
in the few days leading up to the results.
There was one monster disposal I noted which because of
its size must have been from the likes of a Unit Trust.

Reluctanctly I sold out at £3.03 before the results. I am hoping
to get back in at c £2.60. There may now be better shares than
NWG so if this target is not reached so be it.

[smurfy2001] 18/2/2023 13:16

NatWest accused of ‘unjust’ profiteering after CEO paid £5.2m

[smurfy2001] 18/2/2023 12:37

Savers lose out while banks cash in from rising interest rates... NatWest chief's £5m pay deal sparks outrage

[smurfy2001] 18/2/2023 10:51

kogg, so you expect the share price to drift downwards based on your findings then?

I'm holding my free shares. There's further upside to come.

[kogg] 18/2/2023 10:11

wm2020 -

Owners’ equity decreased by £5.3 billion, 13%, to £36.5
billion for year 2022, driven by share repurchase, ordinary and paid-in
equity dividends paid, partially offset by the attributable
profit for the year.

The owners are paying their own div and buyback from past retained earnings and are out of pocket by the tune of £5.3bln.

Another worrying sign is: Total assets decreased by £61.9 billion, 8%, compared with 31 December 2021... Cash and balances at central banks decreased by £32.9
billion mainly due to net business segment funding outflows driven by an overall market liquidity contraction. Mainly, £28.0 billion, movements in FX swaps


The bank may have made a profit but that was chewed up by liquidity contraction in FX, as well has divs and buyback among other things.

[smurfy2001] 17/2/2023 22:02

SHARES TRADED 102.00m vs 23m average volume.

[smurfy2001] 17/2/2023 17:27

More on the NIM.

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The problem is that 3.2% is exactly what it posted in the fourth quarter of 2022; analysts were penciling in 3.38% for 2023.

It’s surprising that Rose thinks lending margins have maxed out already. Higher rates take a while to feed into revenue because so many borrowers have long-term or fixed-rate debt, which reprices slowly. Adding to the mystery is that Rose’s expected net interest margin in 2023 is based on a steady 4% Bank of England base rate, which means it isn’t just down to expected rate cuts later in the year.

[smurfy2001] 17/2/2023 15:38

Same NIM for 2023 of 3.20% as Barclays?

Seems conservative....?

80% of depositors have less than £5K.

[wm2020] 17/2/2023 15:00

@kogg, the 10p dividend costs approx 1 billion and 800 million for the buyback are both well covered by the 5 billion profit in 2022, dont agree that they are using reserves to fund these.

[wm2020] 17/2/2023 14:55

@kogg, 12.2 billion of the drop relates to the withdrawal of Ulster Bank from the Republic of Ireland.

From the RNS
- Customer deposits decreased by £29.5 billion during 2022 to £450.3 billion, principally reflecting a £14.2 billion reduction in Commercial & Institutional due to an overall market liquidity contraction in the second half of the year and reductions in Corporate and Institutions, particularly non-operational accounts in Financial Institutions and professional services with relatively low margin and funding value, and a £12.2 billion reduction associated with our withdrawal from the Republic of Ireland.

[kogg] 17/2/2023 14:21

smurfy - cash is king, the result of the flight is bank has less cash to start in 2023, £32 billion less. It used its cash reserves to fund the business in 2022, not a terrible thing, but if shareholder equity is the the difference between the business assets and its liabilities then nw is a smaller business goin into 2023. Something to keep an eye on.

[smurfy2001] 17/2/2023 13:37

kogg, deposit migration/flight isn't a bad thing surely?