kooba - Yours is the worse case scenario. Nobody ever does business with them again. |
kooba - "or get some meaningful commercial sales"
That's what they said in the interims.
RNS 27/03/2024
"The opportunity ahead
o Successfully transitioned from a speculative R&D first mover to a financially underpinned, organic growth focused Company, surrounded by a validated and enforceable IP moat
o Core sensing and display markets are forecast to experience rapid growth over the next five years - forecast CAGR of over 40% in sensing[1] (cameras and imagers) and c. 20% in display[2]
o Adoption of QD technology in mobile phones for sensors and small screen micro-LEDs for display should lead to a step change in addressable markets for Nanoco" |
"Along with the £19 million cash balance another £7 million of revenue is expected between now and July 2025."So on this point they have a £7m cost base and strip out that £6m and only £1.125m projected gross revenue from the Asian r&d work...that £19m goes to sub £13m by July 2025 unless they slash costs or get some meaningful commercial sales..they have had 1 very small commercial order in over 20 years ..so thats a long shot.Main hope is a bid ..imo. |
£6m of that £7m is relating to non cash accounting around the Samsung settlement for one thing ..so not cash item.The big difference between july and now is that in July they said revenues from gen 1 materials ( that they thought would grow to £8-9m a year ) were delayed ..but that the gen 2 work continued unaffected.Now everything is cancelled..prospect of any gen 1 sales and the whole gen 2 project. If you don't see a significance to that and the financial implications then probably not worth engaging . |
 P whiteThings have rather changed for the significant worse since the July update probably best to use up to date numbers in making comments.They likely have £19m cash left and falling...there is little of buyback left to do , probably a few hundred grand now..so not going to make a difference. Funny though that after the first warning folks took the fact they continued the buyback as a positive...well not so much.The interview with the cfo released end of June says the cost base is £7m...they are now forecasting just the Asian r&d revenues for current year to July 2025 of £1.125m..so that will do little to offset that cost.For those interested in the levels of revenue they were predicting look at the interview end of June this year.https://www.edisongroup.com/research/sensing-the-opportunity/33734/It all makes painful watching that a few weeks and months later they never saw what was coming at all and based all the spending and projections on the unbinding comment that " there would be more orders"Spectacularly naïve..especially for a company that made exactly the same mistakes with Apple. |
PWhite73
Putting things into perspective.
Nanoco is f@@ked!
There's no commercial deals for at least 2 years and that 'unnaned' Asian customer might just walk off or who knows doesn't even exist.
Core IP is aging fast and rapidly maturing.
The cost base is unsustainable and cash is being burnt through at a frightening pace and much faster than originally forecast.
The mgt team are incompetent lacking commercial experience and good business judgement.
While investor relations is in tatters after BT and the Board stitched up retail investors in favour of LOAM and RG over the Samsung settlement..Hence support for a future cash placement is likely to be very limited and especially so without any commercial deals in the pipeline. |
I concur with Peel Hunt - there is no business here and cash needs to be preserved. I think holders will now agree they ought to have given a chance to TH and Co since it was clear post settlement that BT and Co would simply spend the remaining cash to no good effect. That has proven to be the case.
All spend needs to be curbed from this point. The Co needs to find a different business direction rather than spending the remaining sums held on salaries and chasing hopeless dreams. |
In the year end trading update the company had already notified of the contract loss.
RNS 02/07/2024 - "Following customer dialogue, the Group no longer expects to receive a further production order for its validated first generation sensing products during FY24."
However the company is still continuing with its share buyback programme.
RNS 02/07/2024 - "The Group remains committed to completing the return of capital through its £3.0m broker managed share buy back programme with £1.3m having been returned to date."
If there was any question of a cash crisis looming, potentially leading to insolvency the share buyback programme would have been the first to be jettisoned. That they are still cancelling their shares shows confidence for the foreseeable future. |
Proactive Investors - Broker Peel Hunt (LON:PEEL) didn’t mince words following news that Nanoco Group PLC (LON:NANON) lost an important customer of its materials used in infrared sensing applications
In a bleak assessment, Peel Hunt analysts said: “With this strategic shift, Nanoco’s chances of commercialisation fall to zero in 2025, resulting in the company expecting revenues to be 25% below consensus, and shifting down from a low starting point for the outer years.
“This means all hopes for a scaled commercial production project lie with its one Asian customer, with whom Nanoco continues to work well.
“However, the company does not expect production volumes until the medium term, and even then, the volumes are uncertain.”
Peel Hunt reckons there is “potential for Nanoco to be used in a reverse takeover”. |
how can a company that had $90million in cash about 18months ago now have a market cap of only £18million? |
Re revenue..the revenue was forecast to be £9.5m ..then take the 25% off..then realise that £6m of the £7.125m revenue is an accounting entry for the Samsung settlement where all the cash has already been received. You then look at the expected cash burn rate before the latest warning of £4,5m and adjust for the loss of projected future revenues as well as losing the r&d contract and that cash burn is likely significantly higher ..say £6m per year...with little in the way of short term opportunities to mitigate that cost base.The company likely has less than £19m left in the bank right now and is getting close to using up the committed cash for the share buyback. The strategy they have geared costs up on and invested in the FAB ..buying used equipment from STM is money is in tatters.So with that burn rate without significant cost cuts or miraculous orders popping up the company would be down to £13m by end current FY. There are 200m shares in.Main hope is it gets taken out before the money goes completely!On the subject of money we were told the company got $90m from the settlement..that is £75m ..they had returned about £33m to shareholders. They retained £20m at the end of July.They paid £5m to the loan holders ..they spent £2m on the FAB ( i guess, $500k for the kit itself apparently).So £75m less that £62m accounted for ..We had cash in the bank at the time of settlement ..raised from shareholders june 2022 and would have accrued some decent interest when holding most of the cash on account pre distribution and obviously on the retained cash.Cash is going down fast already! |
The fall is well overdone. The termination with the European partner will lead to a fall of revenue of 25% to year end July 2025 that's all. Revenues to July 2025 are expected to be £9.5m. The reduction in the number of shares is important for the payment of any dividends and the value of the company were it subject to a takeover.
Yes there has been crass incompetence in the past and even that's a gross underestimation but the fall is well overdone given the cash pile and IP prospects.
The share price is being manipulated down so the purchase of its own shares are cheaper. The share price will recover when the £3m buyback is complete, new management is announced and an update on the second generation sensing materials with their Asian partner. This is without the announcement of any new contracts. |
At this price it is in bargain territory |
Looks like the bottom has fallen out of this one inspite of the consent buy backs. |
Thanks goldry - getting forgetful in me old age 😂 |
Neil, in The Young Ones |
PPE - I can’t recall who used to say it often in a sitcom a few years ago - anyone remember ? |
PPE - Bummer... |
No credible CEO given there are few around with relevant industry background and commercial experience would want to touch Nanoco in its current state with a 10 foot barge pole! |
They need an entrepreneur who has ideas how to utilize unique qualities of Nano CFQD' without relying on external contracts...There own products... |
How will this sinking ship ever attract a competent, top drawer new CEO?Not likely to happen? |
Millwallfan
"Oh dear. Oh dear oh dear oh dear. Oh dear oh dear oh dear oh dear."
Wouldn't that be a 'herd' of dears..🫣 |
Timing is everything in terms of getting social media right ..so if anyone feels like donating..https://x.com/nanocotech/status/1829544768696692909?s=61&t=s79RLRddG_Gfl7VpUZvZpQ |
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