Nahl Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 10/1/2019 11:35

I'm fine with treats if freecashflow recovers as expected!

[touche] 10/1/2019 11:19

*treating. Re-rating

[touche] 10/1/2019 10:55

Should be the base in now. Fully expect treating when benefits of new business model kick in. Executed perfectly so far.

[lazygun] 15/10/2018 12:59

Dividend seems to be panning out as I’d estimated back in July March/July

Still think it could drop as low as 80/90p...

L.

[mister md] 11/10/2018 08:24

How right you were (unfortunately) ;)

[rcturner2] 01/10/2018 10:09

Not surprised by the fall here after those results. I think this will go under £1.

[topvest] 18/9/2018 20:34

Should lead to more value retained if they can make it work successfully. I'm happy to hold, particularly with Chris Mills having been buying.

[loglorry1] 18/9/2018 14:50

Presentation here

[kop202] 18/9/2018 14:30

The bots have arrivedMarket manipulation now full on

[loglorry1] 18/9/2018 13:23

The average length of a case is around 2 years. If you start to process them yourselves instead of selling leads to them your receivables will balloon. Once the pipe is full though it should get back into equilibrium as cases settle at the rate they are being fed into the ABS.

[rcturner2] 18/9/2018 13:21

The receivables total is greater than the 6 months revenue.

[rcturner2] 18/9/2018 13:19

A receivable is an invoice that has not been paid. It is not a question of them "putting up money" it means they have billed the client and not been paid.

[aleman] 18/9/2018 12:20

A massive increase in receivables was the plan. How do you fund small claims without putting up money? It could pay off handsomely, though. A £12m rise in total liabilities over the last 12 months has been more than balanced by a £16m rise in receivables. That sounds like good business. (Do we expect bad debt from mostly small insurance payouts? I would not expect much. Not complying with courts is not good for business.)

Interestingly, adjusted operating cashflow only fell from £6.5m to £6.4m despite funding the setting up of 2 ABSs. Presumably that could increase significantly when they start paying out properly. With operating cashflow still on track for £14m in a depressed year, the market cap of £54m looks very cheap. Similarly goes for an 8% dividend. I grant there is still significant execution risk but there looks less now than a year ago after these results and comments about how ABS1 is doing. I would not preclude more trouble with ongoing legislation but they can't change too much and throw courts into turmoil.

"For 2018, the board's expectation on earnings remains unchanged"

[keith95] 18/9/2018 12:09

"Rather than presuming, why don't you read the available documents and find out for sure? "

Quite.

ADVFN trolls is one reason I tend to keep away from this web site.

[massimoj] 18/9/2018 12:05

Rather than presuming, why don't you read the available documents and find out for sure? No, they do not invoice monthly. For current JV ABS, profits are recognised at admission of liability and then cash follows 3-6 months later. Also worth remembering that these are not normal receivables. The debtors are not individuals or small businesses, they are generally massive insurance companies and the payments are mandated by a court order so defaulting on them is a bigger deal than not paying an invoice.

[keith95] 18/9/2018 12:04

"Under ABS they would either invoice monthly or on completion I presume."

... why not go verify rather than assume.


NAH are not in the business of invoicing via ebay for a pair of used trainers ....

.. courts give people reasonable but set times to settle.



:)

[joan of arc] 18/9/2018 11:30

Under ABS they would either invoice monthly or on completion I presume. In either case receivables still seems like a large number on which they would need to keep a close eye. Also with ABS they would be more exposed to bad debt of which there was notably no mention.

[keith95] 18/9/2018 11:11

The wholly owned ABS looks good, results in line ....... projected earnings in line .... dividend as promised.

Some idiot talking about receivables .... hardly a surprise given the move to the ABS relationship .... and different mix of cases - more than happy with results.

That said - NHS usually falls on results ... the £3,000 sales at around 120 late yesterday afternoon were mine .... looking forward to buying them back ... in £3,000 lots but with more shares.

GLA.

;)

[riverman77] 18/9/2018 10:35

The loss of a major panel provider can only be expected under the new model and I wouldn't view as a negative. NAH will want to keep the most profitable cases in-house so I can understand why a third party legal firm would lose interest.

[wjccghcc] 18/9/2018 09:52

I don't disagree loglorry1, it just depends on how long it takes to get there and what bumps they hit on the way.

[loglorry1] 18/9/2018 09:16

While true WJCCGHCC I think this is all part of the turn around plan. It is worth baring in mind just how enormous future cash flows will be if/when they execute their plan.

See this for more info

[rcturner2] 18/9/2018 09:12

Massive increase in receivables has got to be a worry.

[wjccghcc] 18/9/2018 09:10

finncap have downgraded forecasts for 2019 and 2020 by 11% because of the major panel provider exiting the panel.

[mister md] 14/9/2018 16:28

slowly edging up again ...

[professor x] 12/9/2018 11:03

We may hover around the 80sma so gain some strength. Once that's passed onto 140:


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