Ms Share Discussion Threads

[darlocst] 23/11/2011 09:53

Impressed and reassured by results. I also expect H2 to be better. If I didn't have a position here already I would be buying.

Back to sleep until Feb now when the IMS will be out.

OT: I wouldn't be touching GNG though. There are plenty of great value UK based companies with international exposure in the current market that don't have the wacking great uncertainties that GNG has or the china risk factor.

[mikepompeyfan] 23/11/2011 09:50

Talk about secretive ! I look for results every day after 7am and have just looked back in today fortunately. Who else releases them at 9 ? Anyway, looks like the 'smoke signals' were read correctly by you rivaldo. Well done. Glad l hopped on board for the ride.

[rivaldo] 23/11/2011 09:42

Cheers paleje - "not so easy" isn't the half of it :o))

The H1 results are actually even better than I expected.

If you add back the £188k amortisation charge, the true adjusted EPS for H1 is 17.7p.

So MSI are certainly on track for 35p+ EPS this year and possibly that 40p EPS.

Then consider that MSI have a £7.7m cash pile against a £58m m/cap. I suspect that the cash pile will strongly improve in H2 with the defence phasing such that it should exceed last year's £9.9m, perhaps by some way.

OT : excellent AGM statement by GNG today. They're the only Chinese quoted company I fully trust, having met the management a few times. On a P/E of 3, huge defensive characteristics, blue chip clients....definitely worth a look imho.

[paleje] 23/11/2011 09:28

Excellent indeed rivaldo, what a slightly secretive gem to tuck away. Spotted early in year via NT and appreciated all the informative posts on here, not so easy to research this outfit.

[rivaldo] 23/11/2011 09:14

Fantastic results - 16.6p EPS in H1, up from 10p, and pretty much up to my optimistic hopes:



Given the defence project phasing I'd still expect 35p+ EPS this year.

Every division is thriving, the outlook is great, the divi is up 50% to 1.5p.

Couldn't ask for more.

[rivaldo] 23/11/2011 07:57

Good post Mr T. Your figures chime perfectly with mine from prior posts where I proposed around 35p and possibly even 40p EPS this year, i.e say 17p-18p in these H1 results. With the US contract perhaps the weighting will be a little more to H2.

Not long until we find out :o)) I'm pretty confident the figures will be good.

[mr. t] 22/11/2011 09:46

Any predictions for the next interim results?

Here's my first guess, based on previous results.

Exceptionals and a changing tax rate slightly distorted last year's EPS, so I've looked at the Turnover and PBT trends. I make the last four halves figures (H1 10, H2 10, H1 11, H2 11) as below:

Sales:
18.1m
22.9m
25.4m
28.9m

PBT (pre Exceptional):
1.2m
2.1m
2.6m
3.7m


If they repeat H2's results of £3.7m pbt and pay the standard 26% rate of tax then MSI would earn about £2.7m after tax. With 18m shares in issue that makes about 15p EPS.

If we assume progress continues steadily and they do £4m pbt in H1 this year then MSI would earn about £3m after tax and 16.5p EPS.

If they do £4.5m pbt in H1 then that would make £3.3m after tax and 18.5p EPS.

If the tax rate is only 20%ish again, then you can add an extra 1.5p or so to those figures.

Given MSI's positive signals in their recent announcement, my guess is that we'll see EPS of about 17p in H1 this year.

What do you think?

[rivaldo] 20/11/2011 07:51

Patricia, is the next letter S?

[rivaldo] 18/11/2011 14:42

You're right - another 1k buy resulted in a 5p rise. Running out of time for the next 15p though....:o))

[mikepompeyfan] 17/11/2011 07:15

well, you only have to buy 1,000 to move the price 5p at the moment. Looks like we could go up 20p today ;-)

[rivaldo] 17/11/2011 06:59

340p or maybe more if 35p-40p EPS is on the cards.

Robbie Burns has started to take an interest again (he already holds MSI):



"Little MS International (LON:MSI) creeps a little higher every day, half year results due next week, I wonder whether they will surprise to the upside? I had another look at them today, they look cheap still and they have a whole heap of cash."

[onlyonestorm] 16/11/2011 17:08

A feel a steady climb to £3.40 after results

DYOR

Stormy

[rivaldo] 16/11/2011 14:53

Mike, MSI never let anyone know when the results are coming out - they seem to like it being a surprise :o))

However, it's normally a nice surprise, and since the results have in the last 4 years been out on the 29th, 27th, 26th and 25th November (not in that order) we can be fairly sure about a rough date for them!

[mikepompeyfan] 16/11/2011 14:40

Rising into interims as expected. Has the date been confirmed yet ?

[rivaldo] 16/11/2011 11:39

Interesting - looks like sales are getting a premium at 275p, well above the quoted 270p.

[rivaldo] 15/11/2011 15:36

Good to see a 1k buy moving the price up 5p :o))

[rivaldo] 15/11/2011 10:25

IMO the interims and finals may well surprise the market on the upside. The director share buying certainly indicates confidence, and previous such buying has been very profitable for the directors to date!

Global-MSI and Forgings should both continue to thrive. As for MSI-Defence, it seems that there's a growing global market for MSI's gun systems on patrol boats/frigates, particularly in Asia and to protect the East African coastline. The US contract may skew things a little, but I'm happy that demand for MSI-Defence will steadily grow.

[mr. t] 14/11/2011 22:01

The business with Shell is most likely filtering through now, just like you say Rivaldo. I can imagine MSI's buyout of Portman's 50% stake in Global MSI last year may also be bringing new opportunities.

Like you, I think the interim results will look very nice.

The question for me is the future. MSI have had a real boom year with the US Navy contracts. Can they follow it with more business, or will revenue plateau?

[rivaldo] 14/11/2011 09:25

Fantastic post Mr.T, brilliant research. I hadn't realised there was an option for the US Navy to increase the value of the contract?

I posted a while ago about Shell's purchase of a large package of additional petrol stations, and I have no doubt that Global-MSI, as the market leader, will have picked up a load more work as a result, which is probably coming through now.

Interims in the next couple of weeks should be excellent imo.

[mr. t] 13/11/2011 15:01

Some news that may be of interest:

1. Global MSI is recruiting. It looks like there are a number of positions, and they say they are all new. A sign of growth?



2. MSI's order to the US Navy seems to be progressing well. The US Navy recently delivered the 6th of 12 (or 15 - I think there's an option to increase) Swiftships to Iraq yesterday, fitted with the MSI International Seahawk DS30M gun:


(see the green writing a third of the way down for the last update on 3rd Nov)

and


There's some more background on the original order:



There's also two other off-shore supply vessels that have just been launched for Iraq, Riverhawk OSVs, which has MSI kit on. See the last section of:



and:

[rivaldo] 08/11/2011 11:33

Moving up prior to the interims - last year's were on 25th November, so not long to wait.

[mikepompeyfan] 29/10/2011 03:53

Patricia, I first heard about them when the naked trader bought them back in June.



I researched them and liked what l saw but did not buy then as the price raced ahead over £3. When l saw the price fall back in August l started accumulating and now have them in my isa. As rivaldo has pointed out, the director buying and confident comments about the performance of all the group's divisions are giving out the right signals to me. They do seem undervalued but l think the large spread and illiquidity make them a share to buy and hold rather than trade. Could become a takeover target too with the relatively small market cap and strong financial position.

[patricia59] 28/10/2011 22:37

Hi mikepompeyfan,
I have noticed you have bought quite a few MSI shares. Can you tell me how you heard about this share, as their are no brokers covering them.

[rivaldo] 28/10/2011 07:51

With almost 31p EPS last year one would hope to see say 35p EPS this year, and with the US contract coming to fruition perhaps as much as 40p EPS if the other divisions continue to prosper.

The dividend is worth noting too - up to 6.5p last year from 4.5p the previous year! Maybe 7p-8p this year?

So MSI could be on a current year P/E of 7.9 and perhaps only 6.9.

A 50% rerating from here to a P/E of 10 to 12 would hardly be out of place.