Ms Share Discussion Threads

[battlebus2] 03/9/2023 13:25

Great research as ever Norbert 🙏

[norbert colon] 03/9/2023 08:38

“The Navy’s proposed FY2024 budget requests $32.8 billion in shipbuilding funding for, among other things, the procurement of nine new ships, including one Columbia (SSBN-826) class ballistic missile submarine, two Virginia (SSN-774) class attack submarines, two Arleigh Burke (DDG-51) class destroyers, two Constellation (FFG-62) class frigates, one AS(X) submarine tender, and one John Lewis (TAO-205) class oiler.

The Navy’s proposed FY2024 budget also proposes retiring 11 ships, including two relatively young Littoral Combat Ships (LCSs).

The Navy’s FY2024 five year (FY2024-FY2028) shipbuilding plan includes a total of 55 ships, or an average of 11 per year. Given a 35-year average surface life for Navy ships (a planning factor that assumes that all Navy ships would be kept in service to the end of their expected service lives), an average shipbuilding rate of 11 ships per year, if sustained for 35 years, would increase the size of the Navy to 385 ships over a 35-year period (i.e., by the 2060s)”

hxxps://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/RL32665.pdf

If we assumed say 5 of those 11 ships per annum (2-3 of whihc would be DDG51’s) were to be fitted with the Mk38 Mod4 totalling 8 mounts that would be around £20m of sales to the US Navy.

What this doesn’t account for is the 47 Flight IIA DDG’s that it seems will likely be upgraded to the Mk38 Mod4 over time and hence could account for very decent annual sales to MSI alone.

To get to £300m mcap Group valuation (£20/share) would hence require a lot more than just buoyant sales to this customer despite it being fantastic news when it arrives.

But, with the Royal Navy T26’s soon coming along and other potential big programmes for the Malaysian, Philippine and/or Indonesian Navy there will be point in the coming years when combined, maritime sales could be significant.

Couple this with the land based VSHORAD sales where already we have £75m of orders and I’d be disappointed not to see the shares at £10+ in the medium term.

[johndoe23] 03/9/2023 08:27

From where have you heard £20?!

[norbert colon] 03/9/2023 07:31

This will certainly be the outcome of many years of MSI mgt courting the US Navy and demonstrating their capability against very stiff international competition from larger players.


You really do have to give them a lot of credit.


There are going to be 2-3 new DDG51 (Flight III) destroyers per year so that’s circa $20m per annum alone (2 mounts per vessel at $3.25m unit cost) just for one vessel class for a subsidiary turning over around £30m per annum previously.

[westofengland] 03/9/2023 07:17

Yes, the shares can be volatile as there are few sellers.
Having attended the AGM, the Directors are very much on rhe ball, vibrant and excited about all sspects of the business.
The speed at which the US Navy has signed the contract shows the vigour of the MSI team. This contract would not have been agreed without numerous face to face meetings with the client.

In today's world where everyonw wants overnight success, we should pay tribute to businesses like MSI who play the long game yet are swift to meet client requirements.

[andrew97] 02/9/2023 17:02

The free float is only around 5m shares, hence exaggerated movements on limited volume (both ways). Directors control >50% of shares and have been with MSI for a geological time period. The Directors are all well in their dotage (except one). To an outsider their baby is ugly (defence, fork truck arms and marketing design) but they have raised it. I see the defence division becoming very significant especially when they get the US contract plus potential others. What a way for these guys to sail into the sunset. £20 I hear.

[norbert colon] 02/9/2023 08:45

Yep the contract news here for production orders will be multi-decade but starting with the DDG51 Arleigh Burke class so it will be numerous contracts of varying sizes over time.

[cockerhoop] 02/9/2023 07:26

From memory the US NAVSEA budget documents had around $30m per year for each 2023 & 2024. Initially fitted to the DDG 51's.

[yasrub] 01/9/2023 21:36

Is there any indication what the potential value could be of the production and supply contract?

[norbert colon] 01/9/2023 21:19

Important to note that there is only one manufacturer of the Mk38 Mod4

[cjohn] 01/9/2023 17:46

Excuse my naivety as a non-engineer, but what possible advantage could there
be for the US navy to have MSI maintaining the 30mm guns of another manufacturer? (I can't believe cost differences could be a deciding point.)

Surely this means FOR SURE the manufacturing contract will be awarded to MSI very shortly.

[sundance13] 01/9/2023 17:27

Think I'm finally in profit with MSI, only taken a year!

[battlebus2] 01/9/2023 16:52

Indeed, looks increasingly likely now 🤞

[norbert colon] 01/9/2023 14:08

Yes very encouraging - well done mgt for pulling off a great achievement. Bigger prize yet to come and seemingly closer now.

[johndoe23] 01/9/2023 14:06

Great news

[norbert colon] 17/8/2023 18:26

https://militaryleak.com/2023/08/17/msi-ds-introduces-terrahawk-paladin-mobile-and-deployable-vshorad/?amp=1

[harry_david] 17/8/2023 17:10

Holding well today despite general sell-off. Advfn uotes them down when price of transactions increased

[gleach23] 16/8/2023 19:25

6k buy from yesterday reported late today which explains yesterday's move up.

Shows how sensitive the share price is to any volume.

[cockerhoop] 02/8/2023 17:05

YASRUB,

The £54m land based contract announced within the Finals was clearly material but not specifically RNS'd. I intend to ask the company what guidelines they use regards what to RNS and what not to. RNS'g the £24m contract in December but not the £54m one doesn't appear (on the surface) to be consistent.

I'd suspected an additional contract had been signed from following some of MSI's partners so it does have the potential to create a false market.

[cockerhoop] 02/8/2023 16:58

I would expect the Mod38 Mod4 to be announced separately - announcements were made from the DOD when awarding Mk Mod3 contracts to BAE (for example 17th Dec 2021) but I can't see any contract award for the 7 or 8 cannons delivered for evaluation - unless i'm looking in the wrong place?

[yasrub] 02/8/2023 16:54

I am aware that RNS releases are not a regular activity for MSI! and no problem there, but to my mind the contracts being attained and potential ones if coming to fruition due to significance should be updated via RNS. It's a good problem to have MSI does seem to be thriving in this environment.

[illiswilgig] 02/8/2023 16:35

MSI not known for RNS releases?

In this case the recent results contained the statement 'We have been invited to visit the US to continue commercial negotiations.'

The board is probably of the opinion that just about covers it?

To be fair. The budget for the mark38 mod4 is not included in the shipbuilding contracts - it's a seperate budget line. The award of the ship-building contracts raises my confidence that the first commercial contract for Mark38 mod4 will be announced soon, but its not chicken counting time yet?

Perhaps they are hoping to announce at the AGM? The price action this afternoon is on very low volume, not sure it means anything but what do I know. Nothing clearly?


cheers