Mpac Share Discussion Threads

[richjp] 20/7/2019 14:56

Evil Knievel has been bullish on this again and said that when the property development issue is resolved he can see it easily going to 250P.

I think they have for sometime being trying to sell off a site for development, possibly in High Wycombe but had been refused planning permission. I think over a year ago they were sounding positive about getting planning permission with a new proposal but I have not heard much since unless I missed something.

Does anyone know what is happening in that regard?

[cf456] 19/7/2019 15:09

Equity Development note very bullish too:

"the business is literally flying with FY19 results anticipated to be “significantly above market expectations"

"we suspect that a big chunk of this incremental revenue is coming from the ‘economically resilient’ healthcare sector. Here there are multi-year upselling opportunities"

"Consequently, due to the strong H1 and encouraging outlook, we have raised our valuation from 245p to 260p/share – underpinned by excellent visibility for H2’19, based on YTD revenues, orderbook flow-through and normal repeat service business."

[cf456] 19/7/2019 14:57

"I feel that shares have strong potential to surpass my previous target price of 225p as more investors cotton on to the strong earnings upgrade momentum that is unfolding. In fact, I have upgraded my target price to 250p. I am not the only one as Panmure have raised their target this morning from 259p to 300p and Equity Development have upgraded their target from 245p to 260p. Strong buy."

[castleford tiger] 16/7/2019 21:58

As trade grew then more money tied up in debtors?

[alan@bj] 16/7/2019 20:00

Thanks Gary

[gary1966] 16/7/2019 19:12

Alan,

Net cash per the accounts at 31st Dec was £27m and they have spent £15m on the acquisition so leaves £12m. In reality they probably increased cash between Jan-Apr prior to the acquisition.

Gary

[castleford tiger] 16/7/2019 17:02

Gary

I took the figure from the note.

See above

cheers tiger

[alan@bj] 16/7/2019 16:48

Where did you get the figure of £12m from Gary? Not saying you're wrong, just querying it.

Simon Thompson's article says:- "After taking into account the £15m cash consideration paid for Lambert in May, analyst Paul Hill at Equity Development believes that Mpac will end this year with net cash of £9.5m, a sum worth 47p a share based on 20.17m shares in issue.

This means that not only are Mpac’s shares trading on a miserly current year price/earnings (PE) ratio of 8, and on a cash-adjusted basis the PE ratio is only 6. That’s an incredibly low earnings multiple to pay for a company that is on course to lift EPS by 42 per cent from 23.6p in 2019 to 33.7p in 2021 based on Mpac delivering £7.7m of pre-tax profit on revenues of £101m in 2021, according to analyst Sanjay Jha at Panmure. In fact, Mpac’s forward PE ratio for 2019 is half the UK engineering sector average."

[gary1966] 16/7/2019 16:22

CT,

They had £12m cash after the acquisition based on the year end accounts and so why do you think they will be cash outflow this year to bring down to £9m? Trading significantly ahead, cost synergies, surely cash will grow this year.

Anyway nice to see a great rise after a day out.

GLA

[paleje] 16/7/2019 13:42

Strong buy from ST, he's moved target to 250, Edison 260, Panmure 300.



250 still sounds cheap to me with their cash and pipeline and relative safety from brexit related fx worries most earnings coming from the US.

[castleford tiger] 16/7/2019 11:16

very close to 200p now
tiger

[momentum1] 16/7/2019 10:25

When does he publish?

[hamsterdam] 16/7/2019 10:20

Simon Thompson - Investors Chronicle

[momentum1] 16/7/2019 10:05

Who is ST?

[paleje] 16/7/2019 09:38

ST has been a supporter of these so expect a column from him over the coming days.

[castleford tiger] 16/7/2019 08:24

cash is forecast to be about 9m

agree 300p is fair value
tiger

[gary1966] 16/7/2019 08:03

ED are behind the curve hugely then. EPS will be 20p plus this year with end of year cash around £14m I suspect. These are worth well north of £3 on any metric. Market will cotton on, we just have to be patient.

[edmonda] 16/7/2019 07:52

Agreed - looks a terrific H1 with this trend set to continue on the back of a strong order book.

Equity Development research now out, with upgrades for both forecasts and fair value/share at 260p (up from 245p).

Full note here:

[gary1966] 16/7/2019 07:08

Can’t ask for a more bullish TU than that, well done the team at MPAC. Looking forward to seeing the numbers in 7 weeks.

[broadwood] 16/7/2019 07:05

Significantly ahead - that's nice.

[capercaillie] 16/7/2019 07:01

Welcome statement

[cjohn] 03/7/2019 09:44

Hi Castleford Tiger,


Yes, we still have to make the annual payments.


If the actuarial calculation was dated as at June 2019, rather than as at June 2018, the déficit on a technical provision basis would be significantly smaller.



We are in surplus on the Ias 19 basis for calculating the déficit.

[gary1966] 21/6/2019 11:02

Dilip40,

Underlying Profit/EPS of £1.4m and 4.5p. Mkt cap just under £33m and cash at last year end of £27m. Chunk of that cash spent on Lambert Automation acquisition which is immediately materially earnings enhancing. Order book for both businesses at record levels. Trading this year off to good start. All in all very cheap given that even after the acquisition, cash probably represents half the market cap.

[dilip40] 21/6/2019 10:41

co made loss 2018 -30p eps any forecasts for 2019 2020