Mpac Share Discussion Threads

[eezymunny] 18/7/2018 09:54

If you use the actuarial valuation for the massive pension fund net assets go negative. Hardly an "asset situation". It seems current business barely able, or unable, to fund agreed pension deficit contributions. Saying 150p is "far too low" may well be "far too optimistic". The pension fund may render MPAC worthless IMO. Only time will tell ("Valuations are extremely sensitive to a number of factors outside the control of the Group").

"The UK scheme was subject to a formal triennial actuarial valuation as at 30 June 2015, which completed on 1 August 2017. The funding valuation of the Group's UK defined benefit scheme showed a funding level of 83% of liabilities, which represented a deficit of £70.0m (30 June 2012: £53.0m) with an estimated recovery period of 14 years from 30 June 2015. The assumptions underlying the assessment of the liabilities reflected the goal of the Trustees and Company to de-risk the Fund. The solvency position of the scheme at that date, which reflects the scheme's position if it was wound up, showed a funding level of 67%. Valuations are extremely sensitive to a number of factors outside the control of the Group, including discount rates. The level of deficit funding is currently £1.8m per annum, increasing by 2.1% per annum with an estimated recovery period of 14 years from 30 June 2015

[castleford tiger] 18/7/2018 09:31

Simon
Whilst I agree they have to utilise that cash in a profitable way.

Tiger

[gersemi] 18/7/2018 08:56

Simon Thompson will get crucified today. The IC's already started removing yesterday's 'selling' remarks in the comments section beneath Thompson's article.

We all, at times, get our calls wrong but for the IC to edit (read remove) the comments section beneath their articles isn't cricket

[simon cawkwell] 18/7/2018 08:51

Given that MPAC is an asset situation 150p is far too low. I paid 144p.

[otemple3] 18/7/2018 08:49

Tbf shares mag said take profits (c.50%) in may. ST tipping yesterday was not good timing.....Miss is big and the fact that they have missed by 50% but not bothered to update the market or lower broker expectations until a few weeks after the period end shows complete lack of financial control.

[davr0s] 18/7/2018 08:35

Yeah looks like the ex chairman and FD did see it coming. It's been ramped by Simon Thompson, shares mag, Melor and all the value investors in recent weeks which is never a good signal in my experience

[castleford tiger] 18/7/2018 08:26

yes bang on.
My issue is they must have seen this coming?

To disappointed the market right now is to get hammered.

Probably better they did not hype it up so much.

Anyway its done so we sit and wait now

Tiger

[davr0s] 18/7/2018 08:26

What did they make last year - circa £4m profit so that's a big miss. -40% is fairly normal for a miss on that scale. I lucked out and sold 2days and am not remotely interested in buying them back

[pro_s2009] 18/7/2018 08:09

Refer to post 77.




.

[spob] 18/7/2018 08:09

bought some more at 120p

crazy mark down

[castleford tiger] 18/7/2018 08:07

whats it opened at?

[edmonda] 18/7/2018 08:07

Yes - trading update from MPAC Group warns of cost over-runs and softening business climate, but CEO says 'fundamentals remain strong.'

Research note with new forecasts and fair value published and freely available here:

[xajorkith] 18/7/2018 08:06

Agree spob - huge over reaction as is the way in the current market unfortunately.

[spob] 18/7/2018 08:04

Yes but they have 148p per share in cash

[xajorkith] 18/7/2018 07:22

Wishing they hadn't had one now - very disappointing update.

[xajorkith] 03/7/2018 15:02

Didn't have one in 2015 or 2016 & released by most companies post H1 end, so next couple of weeks maybe.

Remains excellent value even if in line.

[mfhmfh] 03/7/2018 11:54

no half year trading update (was on 27th June last year).

[broadwood] 22/6/2018 07:29

Welcome news re finance director appointment.

[xajorkith] 21/6/2018 18:25

Nice to see a decent bounce here today.

An absolute bargain below 200p on an ex-cash basis.

[castleford tiger] 21/5/2018 22:26

Take profits and invest where?
Run the winners
Tiger

[richjp] 21/5/2018 09:54

Just to balance my previous post, the Shares magazine item was requoted in the current edition of MoneyWeek. It ends by saying that the shares no longer look significantly discounted, take profits and move on.

I would say that a take profits recommendation is not the same as saying that it is a strong sell, therefore I am staying in.

[richjp] 18/5/2018 14:37

ST's comments are in the IC today. I browsed it in the W H Smith reference library.

His views are much in line with my last post although obviously more comprehensive. He sees the recent share price setback as a buying opportunity and said that his unchanged forecast for the share price of 250P was "conservative".

[richjp] 14/5/2018 14:31

I will look forward to hear what ST has to say.

To lose the chairman and the FD is obviously a bit disconcerting. We know that they are sitting on a huge cash pile and I think a lot of the expectation in the share price has been due to the fact that people are anticipating what they will do with it. The former chairman and FD would presumably have been heavily involved in discussions concerning potential acquisitions, so the resignations may delay things somewhat.

I think the opportunity has not gone away but just been deferred for a while. The financials remain the same.

[spob] 14/5/2018 12:18

Simon Thompson

[smallcapinvestor1] 14/5/2018 12:17

Tipped just now??