Sold a few today as they have gone XD |
They have bought too much property recently pushing up interest charges imho |
Interim results are out: |
Grainger possibly a better play on the sector..?. |
What a horrible chart. |
Sizeable trading volumes yesterday, and today.Non-Exec sold £300k+ worth...! At what is somewhat of a weak price. Hmm. |
I wonder if it would make sense for them to convert to a reit ? This is what the closest competitor Grainger is doing and it seems for low cost the conversion means no tax at the company level if all passed through in divs , maybe they need to own more traditional rentals but this should be easy as they are unleveraged and can easily sell some of current assets at a big premium to book ... |
Now if only Duncan would decide to retire to 'tend his roses' and he then asked one of the William Peers folk to take over.
I guess the only way that would happen is if Peers made a bid. It could happen if they are ignored. They would need a few folk from the concert party to come over. I guess they could rely on the Murphy clan.
In actually fact this company should be a 'run off'. Buying tenanted units at the small discount to the vacant possession value makes no sense if there is not much hope of any medium term price inflation. |
However on the plus side, no one in the family appears interested in taking over from the present (and I agree, overpaid) CEO who is now in his 70s so a break up will happen in due course but when is impossible to predict. |
The share price reflects the 'elephant in the room' - residential prices are not going up and have generally not done so for the last few years (a generalisation).
If you analyse this company over the years, quite a percentage of the return comes from price increases.
With the Labour government back on the EPC issue big bills will be coming.
The management are greatly over paid as well.
I sold out circa three years back and will not be buying back in any time soon.
The good think is the supply of 'rent controlled' property might be about to increase with this barking mad Labour government - don't they learn? |
Seems reasonable value as it is at recent lows especially after an interest rate cut
Safe but unexciting and yielding over 5% |
As concise as usual! |
Results are out: |
Another totally boring interim results announcement, which is reassuring for us ultra long term investors. Long term borrowings up by another £9.5m so still buying. Nothing to see here! |
Hi Konrad, I hope all is well. Only holding a small amount of SHC, VTY and BOOT ATM. |
Essential, are you watching the ten year gilt rate? 4.55% right now.
Mountview share price is looking more interesting. |
"Resignation of Auditor" oftend sends shivers. This time it need not! |
Essential, October has a very interesting track record as has my macro hero Stanley Druckenmiller. |
Konrad, if your bearish autumn thesis is to be borne out you have about 6-8 weeks for a downdraft to start. Meanwhile there have been bargains. VTY is Up nearly 90% from last October's Truss plunge low point.
SHC looks value to me longer term, all be it will be hit if wider equity markets turn lower. |
ydderF, I just cannot help but think one day Pears will buy out the family interests and take it private.
I too have bought in and out over the years. I am currently out, however this share price would be a very acceptable entry level.
I think people have missed the consequence of the rolling two year rent re-registration process and result in respect of regulated tenancies. The outcome is the rents track inflation. |
I've held these on and off over the last 40 years and realise I had no good reason to sell each time, but this could only be stated in retrospect. Almost the same argument could be used for the Company disposing of regulated tenancy properties at auction the selling part of the trading activity. I have even bought properties at auction from Mountview (1977-1982) including a property for £17k in London NW6 which I sold a few years later for more than £100k (now worth £2m). Go figure
It's remarkable how so many people don't understand the economics of buying tenanted properties and the value of the assets here (we can only guess intelligently, but much much more than £110 per share, perhaps £200). A kind of semi-open secret and we can all be grateful it has been virtual private company forever, no plundering by private equity or Pears group interests. Can things stay like this - surely not much longer? |
konrad, appreciate the view.
Another down leg in the listed UK commercial REITS looks underway -
tbf it needs to be seen in the context of a pick up in equity market volatility. |
Brasil, I can see quite a large lump of liquidity being pumped out of the system right now.
Folk who I know who have always 'done another deal' or found another loan are plain out of luck right now.
As this coming recession is well flagged the big corporates will not be caught with their pants down.
I can see corporate profits down twenty percent on average next year.
There has been no bankruptcies for over ten years - they are starting now.
As to Mountview, they are well financed and their rents from their regulated tenants will go up with inflation.
It is not going to be nice especially for the over leveraged and poor. |
Konrad
What do see coming? |
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