Mortgage Advice Bureau (... Share Discussion Threads

[rndm355] 04/12/2022 00:52

thoughts on the profit warning on YouTube:



summary: still like the company, dislike the acquisition.

[sbb1x] 02/12/2022 16:26

Still creeping higher with nice buys still coming in, be in tge 600s next week. Enjoy your weekend.

[chapchip] 02/12/2022 09:44

yes i think you are right

missed the boat yesterday first thing at 440p

[sbb1x] 02/12/2022 09:40

Reckon this goes back to 720s

[investoroilandgas] 01/12/2022 11:18

Excellent post 74tom, I'm with you on this one, wait & see.
I worked in the UK mortgage market for nearly 30 years, BBR hit 15% early 90's.
It will be interesting to see how MAB navigates the headwinds.

[sbb1x] 01/12/2022 11:00

Slowly movung higher

[74tom] 01/12/2022 10:29

Still watching here, the problem I have is that they dropped £72m on Fluent Money last March which wiped out their cash balance + put them in a net debt position.

Unrestricted Cash at 30/06 was £57.4m, the £72.7m for Fluent went out in July leaving them in a net debt position of £15.3m. The interim dividend of 13.4p was paid in November at a cost of £7.4m and you'd assume that this would wipe out most of the FCF in H2 (H1 FCF was £10.9m).

In the current environment I'm not a fan of any company that has recently moved into a net debt position and is paying a material dividend - it simply doesn't make sense.

Will wait until the next results to see how they are looking financially, given the outlook statement and prospect of flat YoY performance I don't see this moving materially higher anytime soon.

[chapchip] 01/12/2022 09:51

yes, although MAB probably better to weather it than most

very well run, well placed to pick up AR's that are currently DA, so numbers could increase a bit.

some of the lesser performing brokers will leave as no business incoming, the bigger firms with back books will still be ok.

if you are an adviser baased in an estate agency or one that has only set up in last few years will struggle for next 12-18 months i suspect

[investoroilandgas] 01/12/2022 09:41

"The trend is your friend", tough times ahead in the UK property / mortgage markets imo.
One for the watchlist.

[chapchip] 01/12/2022 09:32

it had bounced back up....but todays fall is purely in relation to the trading Update

probably overly cautious, but demand has fallen off a cliff.

of i was employed in estate agency environment right now i would be very concerned......

£2.8m write off for bad investment doesnt help

[kemche] 01/12/2022 09:26

Not far enough.

[chapchip] 27/10/2022 10:55

probably fell too far

[miss womble] 27/10/2022 09:58

What’s going on?

[74tom] 10/10/2022 13:43

I mean the valuation was outrageous, at £14 on a forecast 2022 EPS of 42.1p it was trading on a PE of 33x.

I note in their recent interims they reported a 14p EPS for the half to 30/06, given current events in the mortgage market I'd be very surprised if they even match this in H2, so you're looking at 28p for the full year.

So at the current 540p it's still trading at a minimum of 20x earnings. That to me is still far too rich if we are facing a prolonged market slow down.

I'd say there could still be at least 50% downside from here before MAB1 could be considered fair value.

[chapchip] 10/10/2022 07:30

looks like Liontrust have unloaded 11m shares plus market sentiment of how housing market may be affected by the current interest rate turmoil.

£14 to sub £6 in 10 months is not good

[judyelliot] 09/10/2022 10:55

why has this share price reversed direction in recent months, when on the results it seems to be expanding and doing pretty well?

[chapchip] 19/5/2022 08:25

km18...wrong thread for the pub outfit

[km18] 18/5/2022 13:23

Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) posted Interims this morning. The business has bounced back from COVID, posting like-for-like sales growth of 1.0% over the first half versus FY 2019 (pre Covid-19) and has seen encouraging like-for-like sales growth of 3.8% versus FY 2019 through the second quarter. Total revenue was £1,159m, operating profit £121m, profit before tax £57m and basic EPS 7.7p. Net debt reduced to £1,253m (HY 2021 £1,472m), excluding £483m of IFRS 16 lease liabilities (HY 2021 £541m). Sales recovery is ongoing, cost headwinds are a challenge, management are pushing forward with capital investment plans which are delivering strong sales uplifts. Valuation looks pretty attractive with forward PE ratio under 10, profitability ratios are decent for the sector, operating margin should return to double digits. Share price is in a 15 month correction which appears to be extending. There is no rush to buy yet, but there are plenty of positives. M&B is a share to monitor for now....

...from WealthOracleAM

[km18] 22/2/2022 18:15

...from last year...

Mortgage Advice Bureau published its H1 interims earlier this week and they were impressive. Revenues grew 46% versus H1 20 to £92.4m, and they were up 52% versus H1 2019. Statutory profit before tax was up 77% on the year to £10.8m, basic EPS was up 63% to 16.5p. An interim dividend of 13.4p was reinstated. Growth has continued post reporting period as well. Numbers of advisers are up to 1800 and a 49% stake in Evolve FS Ltd, a leading specialist new build mortgage broker has been acquired. The company is delivering solid and very profitable growth – RoE 50% and RoCE 42.5%. Unsurprisingly valuation is not cheap, forward PE ratio at 27 is bottom quartile for the sector. PS ratio is mid-range at  around 3.6. Share price is currently in a pull-back, around 20% below early August peak. With valuation where it is and a share price correction underway there is no rush to buy MAB1 just yet. But the business is solid and should be worth owning at some point in the next 6-12 months. Monitor for now....

...from WealthOracleAM

[gsbmba99] 02/6/2021 15:46

I tend to skew heavily towards tech and healthcare so I haven't got BLV but know many who do and can see the attractions. Dorian and Louise at BLV are doing a good job of executing (as is TPFG though they aren't a MAB1 client, I don't think, and I don't know them as well). I think people tend not to investigate the impact of the differential operating/ownership structure of some of the estate agency companies thinking they're all the same. There's a huge difference between BLV/TPFG as franchisors of estate agency brands relative to being an actual estate agency. The focus on lettings over sales is also a key attraction.

[spann_703] 02/6/2021 15:29

Agreed, gsbmba99. I wonder how many investors [like myself] own shares in both companies. They both exhibit similarly-good quality metrics - I think BLV still looks decent value too, despite the recent appreciation in share price.

[gsbmba99] 02/6/2021 15:20

Belvoir, MAB1's largest customer, is acquiring the Nottingham Mortgage Services Limited unit from Nottingham Building Society. The Nottingham Building Society is entering into a 10 year agreement with MAB to provide mortgage and protection advice, through Belvoir as an appointed representative of MAB, to its members via its branch network and over the phone. From the finnCap BLV note this morning: "The Nottingham currently has 50,000 18-39-year-old Lifetime ISA savers (which is expected to increase to 100,000 within a few years) the majority of whom are highly likely to need a mortgage for the first time in the future. If these potential new clients convert over a three to five year period (which would likely be from 2024) this could represent a significant increase on the 12,000 mortgages Belvoir arranged in 2020." Sounds like a good outcome for BLV and MAB1.