Mortgage Advice Bureau (... Share Discussion Threads

[chapchip] 03/8/2018 12:30

trend broken with this drop?

[gsbmba99] 25/7/2018 12:29

The June UK Finance gross mortgage lending spreadsheet was published. Jun 18 was £23.5bn vs £23.0bn last year or +2.1%. YTD through 6 months is £127.0bn vs £120.5bn last year or +5.4% for 1H.

[gsbmba99] 23/7/2018 09:30

There's a new spreadsheet on the UKF website ( ) Total mortgages outstanding and total lending by lender for 2016 and 17. I find it interesting that the total mortgage balance outstanding in 2017 was £1,319.3bn and that total mortgage issuance in 2017 was £249.9bn. If you include product transfer/rate switch of £90-150bn (ie total mortgage issuance £339.9bn-£399.9bn/year), suggests average lifespan of a mortgage about 3.3-3.9 years. The velocity of mortgage turnover is quite high.

[chapchip] 16/7/2018 15:25

yes but don t forget that a lot of it is done by the lenders direct.....and the proc fees paid by most lenders are around half of that of new business

[gsbmba99] 16/7/2018 15:06

About 2:40 in, the lady from Lloyds says the product transfer/rate switch market was £150bn in 2016. If correct, suggests that this market is very significantly larger than the £90bn guesstimate previously used by MAB1. Don't know what our resident experts think of this estimate.
More generally, there are some interesting topics if interested in mortgage advisers, investment platforms and/or SBIZ.

[opodio] 27/6/2018 11:57

SBIZ




courtesy of GHF


Glasshalfull25 Jun '18 - 18:14 - 15 of 20
0 0 0
Snap Mas!
Met the joint CEO duo at Mello 2018 & impressed by them & business...valuation at that juncture stopped me from investing.

However, went back through the Admission Doc & Zeus initiation & decided to pay up.

Why?

* Earnings growth +28% EPS growth estimates this year (10.5p Adj EPS) / +23% in 2019 (12.9p EPS) / +16% in 2020 (15p EPS). PEG 0.75 or thereabouts.

* Growth in compliance - more & more regulation coming on stream. We’ve just had MifID II & GDPR...with SBIZ support services fulfilling this requirement. Organic growth c.5% with cross selling opportunities.

* Breadth of offering - Monthly membership subs from 3,400 firms & in addition many pay for software. Distribution channels to 135 financial institutions, as well as offering investment via Verbatim funds & other discretionary services.

* Strong cashflow - Forecast over next few years. 2018E £3.6m net cash / 2019E £9.5m / 2020E £16.8m

* Strong Recurring Revenues - Sticky customer base with 92% recurring revs. Admission doc indicates non-cyclical. In other words a defensive play in uncertain times.

* Rising Margins - EBIT margin of 20% in 2016 rising to c.21% in 2018 & 22% in 2019.

I also think they’ll add some bolt-on acquisitions from reading through the commentary, which suggested that it will be on an earnings enhancing basis. Also indications of a maiden dividend this year which is forecast to rise materially next year to provide a yield c.2.4% & 2.8% in 2019 & 2020.

Anyway, small investment for the timebeing & will await the forthcoming trading update/ results for H1 with interest.

Kind regards
GHF

[opodio] 27/6/2018 11:56

SBIZ the new MAB


Glasshalfull25 Jun '18 - 18:14 - 15 of 20
0 0 0
Snap Mas!
Met the joint CEO duo at Mello 2018 & impressed by them & business...valuation at that juncture stopped me from investing.

However, went back through the Admission Doc & Zeus initiation & decided to pay up.

Why?

* Earnings growth +28% EPS growth estimates this year (10.5p Adj EPS) / +23% in 2019 (12.9p EPS) / +16% in 2020 (15p EPS). PEG 0.75 or thereabouts.

* Growth in compliance - more & more regulation coming on stream. We’ve just had MifID II & GDPR...with SBIZ support services fulfilling this requirement. Organic growth c.5% with cross selling opportunities.

* Breadth of offering - Monthly membership subs from 3,400 firms & in addition many pay for software. Distribution channels to 135 financial institutions, as well as offering investment via Verbatim funds & other discretionary services.

* Strong cashflow - Forecast over next few years. 2018E £3.6m net cash / 2019E £9.5m / 2020E £16.8m

* Strong Recurring Revenues - Sticky customer base with 92% recurring revs. Admission doc indicates non-cyclical. In other words a defensive play in uncertain times.

* Rising Margins - EBIT margin of 20% in 2016 rising to c.21% in 2018 & 22% in 2019.

I also think they’ll add some bolt-on acquisitions from reading through the commentary, which suggested that it will be on an earnings enhancing basis. Also indications of a maiden dividend this year which is forecast to rise materially next year to provide a yield c.2.4% & 2.8% in 2019 & 2020.

Anyway, small investment for the timebeing & will await the forthcoming trading update/ results for H1 with interest.

Kind regards
GHF

[gsbmba99] 26/6/2018 10:22

The May UK Finance gross mortgage lending spreadsheet was published. May 18 was £22.2bn vs £20.4bn last year or +8.8%. YTD through 5 months it's £103.7bn vs £97.4bn or +6.4%.

[gsbmba99] 29/5/2018 09:58

AGM trading update from BLV. BLV are one of the larger MAB appointed representatives by virtue of their purchase of Brook last year. BLV says trading at Brook is up over 20% compared to last year: "Our 2017 corporate acquisition of Brook Financial Services ("Brook") outperformed the same period last year (when not part of the Group) by over 20%..."

[gsbmba99] 25/5/2018 18:42

The April UK Finance gross mortgage lending spreadsheet was published. Apr 18 was £20.4bn vs £18.0bn last year or +13.3%. YTD through 4 months it's £81.5bn vs £77.0bn or +5.7%.

[gsbmba99] 28/4/2018 07:59

The March UK Finance gross mortgage lending spreadsheet for March is out ( ). Mar 18 was £20.5bn vs £21.0bn last year or -2.26%. I haven't checked but there could be an Easter effect here. YTD through 3 months it's £61.4bn vs £59.0bn or +4.0%.

[chapchip] 05/4/2018 13:00

£700k is a drop in the ocean compared to his overall wealth.

yes he was highly desired based on previous roles/relationships and what he has done at his current employer.

good appointment.

[gsbmba99] 04/4/2018 09:05

Ben Thompson has been appointed MD, a new board level position. He was until today CEO of ULS ( ). Peter Brodnicki is gifting Thompson 113k shares. I can't recall seeing this before. It seems Mr. Thompson is much desired by Peter if he's willing to give up nearly £700k to get him to join. In the last 12 months we have two new proposition directors (mortgages and protection) and a new MD.

[techno20] 26/3/2018 20:00

Think lenders have been reluctant to provide the data as it shows just how much business is being transacted on an execution only, non advised basis. But you are right, UKF are on the case I believe.

[gsbmba99] 26/3/2018 19:43

The results said that we would get confirmation of the size of the product transfer market soon(ish): "The UK Finance industry data on gross mortgage lending currently excludes product switches with the same lender, but we expect UK Finance to confirm the size of the product switching market later on this year." Maybe it's too much to hope that their survey will be amended in future to include additional reporting on this market.

[techno20] 26/3/2018 19:13

Gsb - the CML / UKF no’s are a decent indicator of market conditions IMV, but it’s worth flagging that they don’t tell the whole story as they exclude product transfer business - borrowers moving to another loan with the same lender. Whilst lower margin than purchase or remo transactions, this part of the market is very strong at the moment and MAB’s advisers will be benefiting. Don’t think there are any firm figures on PT’s, but it’s in the region of £100bn of annual borrowing, not in the no’s!

[gsbmba99] 26/3/2018 18:33

Good. I'm glad they're helpful. It's not entirely clear to me how useful gross mortgage lending is as an "indicator". I guess it's a useful barometer and the CML numbers cover 98% or so of the lending market. But, MAB will have already declared the revenue (on exchange of contracts see post from chapchips) by the time it shows up in gross mortgage lending. Revenue is probably also much more sensitive to mix (ie BTL vs rate switch) given the rate differential than it is to general market health.

[edale] 26/3/2018 17:26

Thanks for your input gsb. Generally quiet on this board but I am invested and follow your posts with interest.

[gsbmba99] 26/3/2018 16:05

Feb 18 gross mortgage lending stats are out. £19bn up £0.9bn or 4.9% on £18.104bn last year. YTD through Feb, £40.982bn vs £38.056bn last year, +7.7%. Seems encouraging. Spreadsheet here: