Mortgage Advice Bureau (... Share Discussion Threads

[gsbmba99] 22/1/2018 09:42

The borrowers refinancing expiring deals with another lender is included in the UKFI (CML) market estimates. What isn't included is borrowers who refinance with the same lender. This market has been opening up to MAB representatives, as highlighted in the FY16 full year results, and is worth about £90bn. More remortgaging has offset lower transactions from home movers. MAB should still be able to grow at the rate of adviser growth if overall mortgage market "pretty much flat" assuming no adverse change in mix or margins.

[caterham88] 22/1/2018 09:27

The overall mortgage market forecast to be pretty much flat, but with many borrowers on fixed interest deals that will expire, won't the demand for MAB's services be pretty positive?

[gsbmba99] 22/1/2018 08:06

Trading update out. FY17 revenue of £109m, +17% YoY driven by 14% increase in avg advisers. Total advisers +13% to 1,078 at period end. 3% increase in revenue per adviser. PBT in line with expectations.

[gsbmba99] 16/1/2018 08:11

Trading update apparently on 22 Jan

[gsbmba99] 11/1/2018 18:57

Wasn't familiar with the fund. Turns out it's run by Rosemary Banyard who co-managed or worked together with Andy Brough at Schroders. They had a pretty stellar track record, I think. From the November fund fact sheet: "New investments have included Mortgage Advice Bureau, which is building a technology based platform in the UK mortgage broking market. The business has many characteristics I like, including being a highly scaleable platform in a regulated industry, achieving very high returns on equity, showing discipline in capital allocation, having a conservative balance sheet and having significant director ownership. A UK B2B market share of around 4% offers plenty of room for growth and the company is also beginning to expand overseas."

[caterham88] 11/1/2018 15:31

Today's Share magazine mentions MAB1 as being a recent purchase by CFP SDL Free Spirit fund.

[gsbmba99] 10/1/2018 09:57

Nice find, edale. ( [...] ) This link has a video interview with Peter Brodnicki. The technology improvement comments match comments from chapchips further upthread. The recent multiple expansion suggests market coming around to viewing this as a franchise/platform/infrastructure play with attractive, virtually cap-ex free growth prospects. If Brodnicki suggests margins could expand over time (not clear whether that's at the AR or MAB1 level), all the better.

[edale] 09/1/2018 18:10

Worth a read :-

hxxp://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/189727/mortgage-advice-bureau-chief-says-technological-shake-up-will-create-opportunities-189727.html

[gsbmba99] 28/12/2017 11:12

CML have released Nov gross mortgage lending estimate ( ) (bottom of page in Nov 17 spreadsheet) but there's no press release I can find. Anyway, Nov 17 estimate is £23.1bn, +9.2% on £21.2bn in Nov 16. 2H to date is £115.2bn, +9.6% on £105.1bn in Jul-Nov 16. An unchanged Dec 17 figure (£20bn) would give us £255.8bn for the year (+4.4%) and £135.2bn for 2H (+8.1%). Seems pretty healthy all things considered.

[gsbmba99] 18/12/2017 13:39

Latest set of CML forecasts for gross mortgage lending were released a couple of days ago ( ). 2017 - £255bn up from £248bn. 2018 - £260bn up from £252bn. 2019 - newly estimated at £271bn. "We are slightly more optimistic about the next two years than we were a year ago. We expect more first-time buyers over the next two years, helped in part by competitive mortgage rates and government housing schemes. Home movers numbers have recovered a little in 2017, but look set to remain flat over 2018 and 2019, as they have benefitted less from government support and have been largely left to fend for themselves. The number of home owners re-mortgaging with a new lender has grown strongly in 2017, and our expectation is for this to continue over the medium term."

[chapchip] 12/12/2017 09:44

hi

sorry I don t know anything about that.......assume MAB will pay for it

[gsbmba99] 12/12/2017 09:14

Sounds good. Do you have a view on the proposed direct to consumer advertising campaign which is scheduled to begin next year? Do you know who's paying for it? Which medium (TV?)?

[chapchip] 12/12/2017 08:48

theres lots of reasons to be cheerful within MAB.....

new processes internally and with lenders next year should reduce time spent on a data entry for applications, new protection process should increase penetration, the product switch market will continue to grow

advisers should be more productive per man hour going forward as technology reduces the paperwork

[gsbmba99] 12/12/2017 08:30

Belvoir Lettings provided an update on their acquisition of Brook, a MAB affiliate. Brook's net written business (net commission after deduction of MAB1 share?) for October and November was £570k (£285k/month or £3.42m/year annualised) which is +57% on last year or +40% on the average of January to late July when it was acquired. Thus far they are covering 66% of the 39 Newton Fallowell offices (their sales focused brand). Three new mortgage advisers in training and further recruitment planned. Mortgage offering to be rolled out to other sales-focused Belvoir and Northwood offices starting in January. Probably not material to MAB1 (guessing about 3% of advisers) but encouraging progress nonetheless.

[gsbmba99] 27/11/2017 09:01

CML October 17 gross mortgage lending estimate is £23.1bn +13.5% on Oct 16. 2H17 is £91.7bn or +9.3% on Jul-Oct 16. Showing good YoY growth in second half.

[gsbmba99] 27/10/2017 07:46

CML September 17 gross mortgage lending estimate is £21.4bn +4.5% on Sep last year and -11.6% on August 17. 2H17 is £68.6bn or +7.9% on Jul-Sep 16. Reasonably healthy year on year 2H gains.

[gsbmba99] 20/10/2017 15:32

Chapchip - do you know whether The Property Franchise Group is a MAB affiliate? Just looking at the possible combination of BLV and TPFG and thinking that, if TPFG is not already a MAB affiliate, this could be good news for MAB if the existing BLV management team run the combined entity.

[gsbmba99] 26/9/2017 16:38

August CML number is £24.2bn. I have that as +9.7% YoY and +5.2% MoM. 2H YTD (ie Jul + Aug) is £47.2bn or +9.5% on last year.
Company results looked good. Still a fair amount to do in 2H. They need about £60m of revenue which would represent about 20% growth on 2H last year. They're entering 2H with 13% more advisers than last year and the first 2 months of 2H are up nearly double digits year on year. It's feeling a bit more achievable but fingers crossed the year on year momentum is maintained for the duration of the year. At the EPS level, the outlook is brighter as they only need 2% more EPS than 2H last year to hit consensus. 1H operating profit margin improved 40bps on last year and 2H normally has a much better margin than 1H.

[gsbmba99] 24/8/2017 13:35

CML have changed their reporting format ( ). They're only giving a Jul 17 total of £23.0bn with no prior month or prior year comparison. So, assuming the Jun 17 estimate didn't change, I have YTD 17 at £141.7bn as against £141.2bn in 2016 so we've now recovered the prior year BTL deficit and are showing ever so modest growth. I have Jul 17 at +9.2% on Jul 16 (£21.1bn). Commentary still sounds a bit cautious: "First-time buyers and remortgage activity on the part of homeowners have been the drivers for lending for some time now. While we see this continuing over the short term, we anticipate the pace of growth to slow somewhat over the second half of this year, dampened by a potentially more challenging economic outlook."

[chapchip] 28/7/2017 16:19

yes but I think H2 always tend to be busier and H1 affected by the slow down from Nov and Dec the previous year, so Jan & Feb bankings can often be slower, so H1 sometimes really only a 4 month period, whereas H2 includes business written in the tradional busy March, April May as most deals have 3 months lead in

[gsbmba99] 25/7/2017 06:44

Trading update out. 1H17 revenue of £49m, +15% on last year. Total advisers 1008, +6% on 31 Dec. Current trading in line. Full year consensus looks to be about £109.4m for revenue which means they need £60.4m in 2H17 or +21.4% on 2H16. Entering 2H17 with 13% more advisers than started 2H16. Mortgage lending normally second half weighted. 2H as percentage of full year CML numbers has been 57.4% in 2013, 50.7% in 2014, 56% in 2015 and 51.2% in 2016 (which itself was skewed by the 1H BTL frenzy). 2H CML lending was £91.4bn in 2013, £99.6bn in 2014, £123.1bn in 2015 and £126.3bn in 2016. Looks like there is some work to be done in 2H.

[gsbmba99] 20/7/2017 14:11

CML gross mortgage lending numbers are out ( Jun 17 estimate is £22.1bn +9% on May 17 (revised up from £20.1bn to £20.3bn) and +3% on Jun 16. YTD gross mortgage lending is £118.7bn which is -1.2% on £120.1bn in Jan-Jun 16. Commentary sounds a bit cautious "Given that the economy and housing market are closely linked, this has contributed to the activity plateau since the start of the year. Looking ahead, housing market activity is likely to reflect economic conditions – a deterioration would likely dampen first-time buyer numbers and homeowners remortgaging – the factors that have supported lending recently." Next update 24 Aug

[gsbmba99] 20/7/2017 09:13

Trading update 25 Jul as per financial calendar (

[edale] 20/7/2017 08:48

We had a trading statement at the end of July last year so possibly will get something next week.

[gsbmba99] 17/7/2017 16:09

The good news is that Belvoir will need more than 32 people at Brook. That's a good point about the BTL remortgage since Belvoir will have a relationship with the property owner for lettings. I hadn't thought of that.