Mortgage Advice Bureau (... Share Discussion Threads

[saucepan] 27/4/2016 12:23

I have just spotted the result of the book-build and confirmation of the 360p price. They got that away quickly.I suspect that means there is further institutional interest in accumulation here. I have now added, too, at 359.9p.

[johnv] 27/4/2016 11:24

Alpha, picked them up from digital look, if they're wrong I stand corrected. I couldn't understand why you guys are so interested in a 12% growth company on a pe of 18.

[alphabeta4] 27/4/2016 11:20

Result - just managed to double my holding at the placing price. Pretty unusual - I think PIs forget / don't understand sometimes that selling large blocks will create a discount but also acts as a price floor (and the institutional investors would have done some decent research too before committing to buy).

[alphabeta4] 27/4/2016 09:12

Don't know where you're getting those figures from John - consensus Morning Star forecast 18.8p eps 2016, 22.4 eps 2017 so almost bang on 20% and a peg of 0.85 (even stronger if you adjust the pe for the cash on balance sheet).

[maramara] 27/4/2016 09:03

Was going to buy yesterday but the spread was big so decided to wait till today. i am not good at this investing malarky so expected the price to have gone up again today is the price of 360 good or would you wait to see what happens.

[johnv] 27/4/2016 08:33

Not a shareholder here, looking at the forecasts we got 19.3 this year rising from 17.2p last year, growth of 12%. giving a prospective p/e of 18.8.
P/E 18.8 for growth of 12%....

[edale] 27/4/2016 07:47

Fully agree A4, a few sellers this am have brought the price down but should only be a short term effect after yesterday's rally. It will be interesting to see what price the placing shares go through at.

[alphabeta4] 27/4/2016 06:59

Pretty happy with today's news - it will be good to boarden the institutional base and removes some of the risk of Peter having excessive shareholder power.
A similar thing happened at ACSO recently off shares that had also risen significantly (which I guess is only fair as us private investors also top slice from time to time). It was well received and oversubscribed leading to a further c10% gain in the share price post placing. Here's hoping :)

[alphabeta4] 20/4/2016 13:22

Interesting chapchip - what made you choose them?

Thanks for the welcome Saucepan - I'm sure I've seen your name before, we must have one or two similar holdings!

[chapchip] 20/4/2016 12:43

I ve just joined the MAB network as I m a mortgage broker.

very slick set up, expanding at a rapid rate of knots......they have strategic investments in many ancillary services, like solicitor panels, 2nd charge and bridging, specialist niche financing like bridging, very big in new build sector.

[saucepan] 20/4/2016 12:13

Welcome Alphabeta4 :-)

[alphabeta4] 20/4/2016 10:38

By the way I thought this could have an interesting implication for short term mortgage application numbers and gross lending:

[alphabeta4] 20/4/2016 10:36

Finally took the plunge buying a small position at £3.95. Whilst I would have loved the February price I suspect this was a case of selling out by stale bulls who had enjoyed the significant rise over the past year.

I like how the nature of the business means that almost all the profits are able to be returned to shareholders resulting in a high dividend and am encouraged the founder retains a 36% share helping align his interests with shareholders (albeit I would like this share to drop a little over time from institutional placings to prevent him being too dominant a holder).

Linked to this I personally think the forecasts are too conservative. Profits seem largely correlated to adviser numbers and gross mortgage lending. From 1/1 to 18/3 adviser numbers grew by 54 from 790 to 844, so a run rate of over 30% and already up 7% on the year end. It wouldn't be difficult for this to rise by just over 20% (especially given 2015 was 25%) and for gross mortgage lending to rise by 8% in line with the CML forecast(I would suspect this is mostly house price inflation which still seems intact along with a small rise in approvals) for 30% profit growth against what looks to be a forecast of 20%.

Then there's the cash on the balance sheet leading to a forward adjusted PE of around 16 (even on the Canaccord forecasts). This feels very undemanding for a growth share with this sort of track record and paying this sort of dividend. I could easily see this on £4.50-£5 in the next few months for a 10%+ capital return and healthy dividends (plus the special) in the meantime.

All IMO but I would be interested to hear others forecasts and how they are deriving them.

[alphabeta4] 15/4/2016 15:38

This share's price movement is weird - why did it drop so much from the end of December on a string of above expectation statements?

[modform] 07/4/2016 12:25

Yes saucepan , how resilient this is, glad to hold

[saucepan] 04/4/2016 14:15

Patience being rewarded: a nice breakout developing here.

[bellymonster] 22/3/2016 14:25

Cracking results yet no movement at all.

[edale] 14/3/2016 20:37

Results next week Tuesday 22nd. Pre-close statement indicated results would be good so may see further share price increases in the next few days in anticipation.

[saucepan] 14/3/2016 16:46

Director Lucy Tilley has bought 92 shares. She must be confident!

Nice to see a move on the back of it. Perhaps someone else could buy 92 shares?

[cfro] 01/2/2016 10:18

On the move today.

[cfro] 21/1/2016 14:28

Opened a new position here today. Very good statement imo.

[shammytime] 21/1/2016 09:50

Very quiet here this morning considering they are ahead of expectations.

[shammytime] 21/1/2016 08:27

Incredible update. This should be above 350p on the back of that update.