Mortgage Advice Bureau (... Share Discussion Threads

[alphabeta4] 20/5/2016 09:20

Notice the builders are up on Brexit fears receding but hasn't yet filtered through here. Looking very cheap on a high yield (prospective now over 6%!)

[alphabeta4] 06/5/2016 21:16

Just gone ex div so 9.5p there.

[xtrmntr] 06/5/2016 19:32

Why does this share keep bombing at close?

[alphabeta4] 04/5/2016 10:24

Nationwide HPI out today:



It has some interesting commentary around the activity prior to the B2L changes on 1/4. There was a big leap in transactions and mortgage lending up 42%, which must have helped MAB1. They note that there were also a big jump in cash buyers which they then kind of skim over, IMHO this will provide a second round effect in enabling sellers of two bed homes (making up a significant part of the B2L market) to trade up which will be felt further down the line and help prop up volumes post the changes.

[paleje] 28/4/2016 09:21

IC ran part1 of an article last weekend on 'best 100 small caps', MAB was one of them:-

Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB1) has enjoyed a stratospheric rise in share price during the past 12 months. Since floating on the junior market in 2014, the mortgage broker has benefited from the growing popularity of intermediaries, which are taking market share from banks and building societies.
Data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) predicts that UK gross new mortgage lending will grow at 8 per cent and 10 per cent in 2016 and 2017 respectively. To take advantage of this, management hopes to continue growing its network of advisers, the majority of which operate under the MAB brand, even further. The group has got off to a good start so far this year, adding 54 advisers. Management says investing in technology will continue to be an important part of driving growth this year, particularly in generating new leads for its adviser network.
Analysts at Canaccord Genuity upgraded their earnings forecasts for this year and are expecting adjusted EPS of 18.8p, representing a
13 per cent increase on last year. Plus the shares offer good income, with a forecast yield of 4.8 per cent this year. Buy. EP

[someuwin] 27/4/2016 20:03

Looks like a few massive trades late morning...



Resulting in the highest daily volume ever - by far.

[edale] 27/4/2016 19:51

Confused by the volume of shares traded today. The placing was for approx 7.5 million shares which should give a total of 15 million traded i.e. 7.5M sold and 7.5M bought. Actually the volume traded was much higher at 26Million. Can anyone enlighten me ??

[cfro] 27/4/2016 16:34

In my experience the market normally indicates where the placing is. The price has been floating around 360p for most of the day.

Not holding these currently because the only things that put me off are the wide spread and high volatility. Especially intra-day.

[alphabeta4] 27/4/2016 13:38

No worries John, I think it is also because if it had much of a drop from here the prospective dividend would be above 7% due to the low capex nature of the business.

[saucepan] 27/4/2016 13:23

I have just spotted the result of the book-build and confirmation of the 360p price. They got that away quickly.I suspect that means there is further institutional interest in accumulation here. I have now added, too, at 359.9p.

[johnv] 27/4/2016 12:24

Alpha, picked them up from digital look, if they're wrong I stand corrected. I couldn't understand why you guys are so interested in a 12% growth company on a pe of 18.

[alphabeta4] 27/4/2016 12:20

Result - just managed to double my holding at the placing price. Pretty unusual - I think PIs forget / don't understand sometimes that selling large blocks will create a discount but also acts as a price floor (and the institutional investors would have done some decent research too before committing to buy).

[alphabeta4] 27/4/2016 10:12

Don't know where you're getting those figures from John - consensus Morning Star forecast 18.8p eps 2016, 22.4 eps 2017 so almost bang on 20% and a peg of 0.85 (even stronger if you adjust the pe for the cash on balance sheet).

[maramara] 27/4/2016 10:03

Was going to buy yesterday but the spread was big so decided to wait till today. i am not good at this investing malarky so expected the price to have gone up again today is the price of 360 good or would you wait to see what happens.

[johnv] 27/4/2016 09:33

Not a shareholder here, looking at the forecasts we got 19.3 this year rising from 17.2p last year, growth of 12%. giving a prospective p/e of 18.8.
P/E 18.8 for growth of 12%....

[edale] 27/4/2016 08:47

Fully agree A4, a few sellers this am have brought the price down but should only be a short term effect after yesterday's rally. It will be interesting to see what price the placing shares go through at.

[alphabeta4] 27/4/2016 07:59

Pretty happy with today's news - it will be good to boarden the institutional base and removes some of the risk of Peter having excessive shareholder power.
A similar thing happened at ACSO recently off shares that had also risen significantly (which I guess is only fair as us private investors also top slice from time to time). It was well received and oversubscribed leading to a further c10% gain in the share price post placing. Here's hoping :)

[alphabeta4] 20/4/2016 14:22

Interesting chapchip - what made you choose them?

Thanks for the welcome Saucepan - I'm sure I've seen your name before, we must have one or two similar holdings!

[chapchip] 20/4/2016 13:43

I ve just joined the MAB network as I m a mortgage broker.

very slick set up, expanding at a rapid rate of knots......they have strategic investments in many ancillary services, like solicitor panels, 2nd charge and bridging, specialist niche financing like bridging, very big in new build sector.

[saucepan] 20/4/2016 13:13

Welcome Alphabeta4 :-)

[alphabeta4] 20/4/2016 11:38

By the way I thought this could have an interesting implication for short term mortgage application numbers and gross lending:

[alphabeta4] 20/4/2016 11:36

Finally took the plunge buying a small position at £3.95. Whilst I would have loved the February price I suspect this was a case of selling out by stale bulls who had enjoyed the significant rise over the past year.

I like how the nature of the business means that almost all the profits are able to be returned to shareholders resulting in a high dividend and am encouraged the founder retains a 36% share helping align his interests with shareholders (albeit I would like this share to drop a little over time from institutional placings to prevent him being too dominant a holder).

Linked to this I personally think the forecasts are too conservative. Profits seem largely correlated to adviser numbers and gross mortgage lending. From 1/1 to 18/3 adviser numbers grew by 54 from 790 to 844, so a run rate of over 30% and already up 7% on the year end. It wouldn't be difficult for this to rise by just over 20% (especially given 2015 was 25%) and for gross mortgage lending to rise by 8% in line with the CML forecast(I would suspect this is mostly house price inflation which still seems intact along with a small rise in approvals) for 30% profit growth against what looks to be a forecast of 20%.

Then there's the cash on the balance sheet leading to a forward adjusted PE of around 16 (even on the Canaccord forecasts). This feels very undemanding for a growth share with this sort of track record and paying this sort of dividend. I could easily see this on £4.50-£5 in the next few months for a 10%+ capital return and healthy dividends (plus the special) in the meantime.

All IMO but I would be interested to hear others forecasts and how they are deriving them.

[alphabeta4] 15/4/2016 16:38

This share's price movement is weird - why did it drop so much from the end of December on a string of above expectation statements?

[modform] 07/4/2016 13:25

Yes saucepan , how resilient this is, glad to hold