Morses Club Share Discussion Threads

[bostik17] 23/3/2021 12:17

That’s what Warren Buffett would suggest!

[its the oxman] 23/3/2021 11:37

Is now the time to buy while others are fearful. Wish I knew?

[smithie6] 23/3/2021 11:20

the sector is having a good day, many/most sector shares are up

don't be too slow to "consider" buying in this price dip

;-)

[smithie6] 23/3/2021 09:36

"the FCA don't like these players"

well, the FCA are the people that set the rules to be complied with & for doing any inspections/checks to ensure compliance

so, for the problems at Amigo, PCF etc, imo the FCA is partly to blame

they were & are FCA regulated/approved companies !! & not some unregulated companies operating from Nigeria using phishing e-mails !

the FCA has been useless for decades & all the Govt. ever does is change its name every X years rather than fix it. (the 'city' doesn't want the FCA to have more teeth/powers & sadly the Govt. always listens to that)

One case, the London & Capital ponzi scheme scam, £230 million, & 75% of investors' money appears to have gone. Yet the FCA was warned in 2015-2016 about it being a scam by IFAs & the FCA didn't act until late 2019 !!. They registered the warning but gave it a low priority setting. Instead they could have phoned the co. & asked them to visit the FCA & defend themselves against them the allegations & then freeze their assets after no acceptable defence provided; instead the FCA did nothing & allowed that ponzi scheme to continue to operate, in the UK ! You couldn't make it up !

(were the RBoS & Nat. West declared as insolvent, arguably because the FCA allowed too much gearing)

[bostik17] 23/3/2021 08:48

Hi Smithie. Don’t disagree with the outward facing messages. However I’ve followed FS and the regulator for long enough to realise they pull lots of strings behind the scenes which is less than obvious. The FCA’s standpoint on this market is changing, rightly or wrongly because there is nowhere else for people to go, and they don’t like these players. I’m happy to be proven wrong because there needs to be competition but I don’t hold a lot of hope for their prospects

[smithie6] 22/3/2021 22:56

Bostik

FCA
see post 1054
...FCA position wrt the Schemes of Arrangement being put to a vote by Amigo & PFG (any more ?!) is already public

(if the Schemes get >75% votes for approval it appears that it becomes (I think) legally 'acceptable/appliable', & won't need the FCA's best wishes to be applied !

while yes all "other" FCA rules/regs. stay in place I assume & the FCAs power to enforce if they wish (ok, FCA don't have a reputation of enforcing anything !)

the numerous risks to the turnover and new lending of Amigo & PFG are very real I think. (who knows, maybe they are prohibited from new lending until after their scheme vote & clarification of being financially stable. As I understand it if the votes fail then Amigo is bust, IFG I don't know; with that % risk if I was the FCA I don't think I'd let those 2 cos. do new lending.

If so then many more applications to MCL.

[ultimatewarrior] 22/3/2021 20:30

Interesting to see where this goes over next few days bostik - must be a bounce at some stage we hope lol

[bostik17] 22/3/2021 18:36

I simply don’t see the FCA being happy with giving authorisation to Amigo for whatever the new business is when they have messed up so badly and then in effect propose to walk away from it. Think of it this way, should the next business fail and there’s a shortfall on its customers again that would be really bad news for the regulator and they have no reason to put themselves in that position. Too many other similar businesses have been allowed to go to the wall in recent times and it’s not in the FCA’s interest to do anything different

[ultimatewarrior] 22/3/2021 16:40

To further put this decline in perspective I wouldn't take much more of a morse drop and amigo rise for amigo with all its issues to be worth more that morses

[ultimatewarrior] 22/3/2021 16:38

Fair enough smithie but morses is again the biggest faller in the sector and the percentage drop doesn't seem to be getting any smaller

[smithie6] 22/3/2021 16:03

Bostik
regulator & Amigo & PCF &...

...their 'schemes of arrangement' being put to their clients with outstanding complaints

The FCA has already said that they don't (& can't) give their blessing to these schemes of A. since payment is reduced from 100% ( but maybe that is only because of ambulance chasers inflating the claims)

but the FCA I think has no subsequent voice, if a scheme is voted thru as approved,
>75% vote.
(of unresolved complainees or ??)

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I'm hoping that MCL will get more enquiries & clients since the competition having the FCA looking over their shoulder or even questioning any new loans until after the votes for their schemes take place
..since there is clearly doubt about whether the others are a going concern or not
..if they lose the scheme votes then I think they have big problems

[ultimatewarrior] 22/3/2021 15:52

Bostik you have any idea what the point of the bot doing the small buys sells on thisLiterally baffled that there's someone in London on 100k plus a year trading a 60 million cap Surely there isn't any profit in that

[bostik17] 22/3/2021 15:48

It’s also about the viewpoint of the regulator. Both organisations are proposing schemes whereby they pay out significantly less to consumers on valid claims than would otherwise be - then continue to trade elsewhere. Amigo in particular have incensed their directors to start and build up another business, having done so, and get paid royally for it. I can’t imagine the fallout for the regulator if they countenanced that.

[ultimatewarrior] 22/3/2021 15:48

Next question within next day is if 50p will hold. Key area on chart

[smithie6] 22/3/2021 15:34

'if' the advfn numbers are correct then

MCL - cap. value. 70M. EV 94M.
cap. value is 74% of EV

IPF- cap. value of 220M ; EV 632M
cap. value is 35% of EV

PFG- cap. value of 502M; EV 1700M
cap. value is 30% of EV

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in terms of assets wrt debt (the difference between the cap value & the EV is influenced a lot by debt MCL is the lowest risk & most solid share out of these 3, by miles.

(For IPF the difference comes from its debt pile)


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note that with a cap. value of 70 million many funds will see MCL as too small to invest in, even if its accounts are much lower risk than IPF or PFG.
The bigger companies have the advantage/disadvantage of being international. (one of them closed one overseas subsidiary, Finland, so being international is no g'tee of success).

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MCL has about 50 million nett cash I think I recall.
The experience, customer lists, agent network, profit etc etc is only valued at 20 million. imo there is decent downside protection, but I'd rather it went up & not down !

[smithie6] 22/3/2021 15:30

well, if you don't like Morse
feel free to go & buy IPF or Amigo or Provident instead.

( but dont forget that Morse is mostly lending out mostly its own money (86% of it)
while IPF is lending out someone else's money, & paying 9.75% for that money.
If they trip up they are screwed, or their financial/profit numbers are screwed.
Whereas MCL has solid books.

Take yer pick.

[ultimatewarrior] 22/3/2021 14:56

Both provident and amigo having blue days - weakening the argument it's about the claims and raising the fact it's morses specific

[bostik17] 22/3/2021 14:48

Yes consider also that his previous job was at Brighthouse. You would think he would be uber sensitive to complaints if they were spiralling like those seen elsewhere. They will no doubt be seeing more because that’s how the CMCs work but as things stand it would seem wrong to tar everyone with the same brush

[smithie6] 22/3/2021 14:20

recalling the RNS of 26th Feb.

that a director paid 65.77p for shares

"Morses Club PLC ("Morses Club" or the "Company"), an established provider of non-standard financial services, announces that on 25 February 2021, Graeme Campbell, its Chief Financial Officer, purchased 40,000 ordinary shares of 1 pence each in the Company ("Ordinary shares") at a price of 65.77p."

to go back to 65.77p would be a 24% rise. ;-)

[smithie6] 22/3/2021 13:50

oops
my mistake

(PFG fell from ~250p to ~200p
20% fall from 250p.)

[ultimatewarrior] 22/3/2021 12:31

Not to dispute your numbers but 75p - 54 p mcl isn't 15%, it's actually 30% from its intra day highDrop (75-54)/75p = 30%

[smithie6] 22/3/2021 12:27

PFG & MCL both down by 15% imo (updated , 20%. PFG went from ~250 to ~200p)

but the companies are different
& also the share price graph
MCL had a big run up in price

(imo the fall in the MCL share price is over done)

[ultimatewarrior] 22/3/2021 12:21

Pfg has already recovered some of its drop Oddly the weaker since the pfg news is morses, on a percentage basis

[smithie6] 22/3/2021 12:19

....sector has had cases of bad news
...so it's no surprise that the price is weak.

but the company RNSs are OK

risk/reward, and for me this share with its nett cash & loan book per share then this price looks good imo if one take's a 3-6 month view, while what it does in the coming hours is difficult to say

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various blue chips are having a bad day today
Easyjet, Rolls Royce, IAG as plane travel seems to be getting bad news.

& the Turkish lira has dived by 17%
& BBVA bank shares have seen a noticeable fall

When the economy is re-opened in X weeks/months then mkts should be much happier, & share prices; but if buy "then" & not now then one assumes that share prices will be higher.

[bostik17] 22/3/2021 12:13

There was one recently, I believe it was a simple case they came out of the AIM market, but you would have thought things would have moved on. Can’t see the sense in it. Even NSF’s broker, (who would naturally be cynical just for convenience sake!)has a higher target price. You would hope that any positive outlook on the digital side will give it a fillip but who knows as I can’t explain current state of play