Mining Minerals & Metals Share Discussion Threads

[willyworm] 08/10/2007 13:23

Funny thing is I thought that 18 months ago...

[bongo bwana] 08/10/2007 13:13

Agreed Robbi.

Im not sure its the time to top up but any such decision will prove to be the correct one on an 18month outlook IMHO.

[robbi123] 08/10/2007 11:55

800k imo, drilling will prove it up through the year, next year's will be 2-3mil:)

tempted to have a small top up, what do u think BB?

[bongo bwana] 08/10/2007 11:31

I would be euphoric at a JORC of 2m ounces.

[tonudiki] 08/10/2007 10:50

So, what's peoples views on the size of the resource estimate for Komana West?

I guessed at 2 million ozs. over 18 months ago, so that would do very nicely :-)

[maniac3] 08/10/2007 10:25

Quite optimistic!

[tsmith2] 03/10/2007 09:02

I am going for 13p by month end

resource update sometime next week..?

[tsmith2] 01/10/2007 11:32

For those getting a bit restless, it'll be well worth the wait

within a couple of weeks we should have drilling recommencing on KOmana and other drill targets and also an initial resource estimate

[maniac3] 01/10/2007 10:43

thanks for posting tsmith.

[tsmith2] 29/9/2007 16:47

POG - need we say anything more, this drilling season should be a very rewarding one for all shareholder.




* At Market Close
In Overdrive to $1,000 Gold
Interview with John Hathaway, Senior Managing Director,
Portfolio Manager, Toqueville Asset Management
By SANDRA WARD

AS FAR BACK AS LAST OCTOBER, John Hathaway believed gold's breakaway performance from other commodities signaled rough times ahead for financial assets. That proved true -- and that's the kind of insight that has led the Manhattan-based Hathaway's $1.1 billion Tocqueville Gold Fund (ticker: TGLDX) to its own breakaway performance. The fund is up nearly 12% this year, versus 9% for the Standard & Poor's 500 and 17% for the XAU, the Philadelphia Exchange's Gold and Silver sector index, which has benefited from an overweight position in copper-producer Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). That follows on the heels of last year's 39% and average annual returns the past five years of 27%, versus 14% for the S&P and 20% for the XAU.


We ain't seen nothing yet if he's right about gold heading higher. Hathaway spoke with us from Colorado, where he was attending the industry-sponsored Denver Gold Forum.

Barron's: Is gold finally getting some respect?

Hathaway: There is a lot more interest, but I am not sure respect. It is still a marginal space for most investors.

What's driven the price to nearly a 30-year high?

It's associated with the liquidity squeeze and the Fed rate cuts. I was in Ireland recently, and the papers were full of news on Northern Rock, the big mortgage provider in the U.K. that essentially had a bank run. To some extent, injections of liquidity make currencies, whether the pound or euro or dollar, suspect. One obvious response is to go to gold.

A recent article in the Economist mentioned a study that concluded gold hasn't been a reliable hedge against risk or inflation. What do you make of that?

Gold has been among the best-performing asset classes since 1999, when it bottomed out. Also, gold is forward-looking. In the last several years, it has discounted a widening of credit spreads and a shift in the market to a more risk-averse posture and lower asset valuations.

But gold, as you point out, has also risen during a time of rising stock and bond markets.

There have been an anomalous couple of years where gold was viewed as a subset of hard assets and hard assets were sought after. We had a period where gold actually tracked very closely with things it normally doesn't. Maybe it is noncorrelated.

I wouldn't try to pigeon-hole gold too much, because if you look at the last four to five weeks, gold has definitely taken off because of concerns about the relaxation of the Fed's monetary policy and the expectation there will be more of that. Of course, we've seen that not just in the gold price, but in the breakdown of the dollar on a trade-weighted basis.

What about the link between a declining dollar and rising gold?

I wouldn't overweight that too much, either, because while the dollar is in a little bit of trouble here and it probably will lose some shelf space as a global reserve currency, at the end of the day, the Europeans don't want the euro/dollar rate to be at 1.50 because they will be out of business. All economies are interdependent on the dollar as an instrument of credit for cross-border trade.

Here you have an asset class that has been outperforming for some time, and yet it is still treated skeptically. What do you make of that?

Gold's bubble lies ahead. It has got a long way to inflate. So much about gold has very little to do with gold. It is more about capital-markets psychology. If we are entering a period of difficult markets, which was averted from happening earlier because the Fed pulled this 1% short-term money stunt and bought us a few more years, it is going to change psychology, and that will open the door for more people thinking about gold. What was needed to put gold in overdrive was the scent of fear.

What gets us to the magic number of a $1,000 an ounce?

I don't think it will take much. Let's not forget, in 1980 dollars, gold is less than half of its nominal price today.

The disparity between the amount of paper that has been created since 1980 and the amount of gold that has been produced since then is just enormous. The ratio of financial assets to physical gold is at the low end of a historical range. If you were to mark all the gold to market that has ever been mined, which is a very conservative approach, and then take the valuation of all the global stock markets and all the global bond markets, gold represents about 3%, compared with a figure in the mid-20% range in 1980, which was the top of the bull market in gold and the beginning of the bull market in financial assets.

Gold is a good value, certainly, at these prices, just based on the considerations we've discussed. Even if you don't think worst-case outcomes are in the cards, gold is still rare and hard to find, and believe me, these companies are having the toughest times trying to maintain production, much less build it.

Why are they having such a tough time? Because it is so expensive to produce?

There are a lot of reasons, but one is the environmental movement is so much more active and effective today. I would say the industry in general is 99% compliant with best practices and first-world standards in terms of environmental compliance. They are very responsible. But, for example, there is a project, a big new mine in Romania which could use the investment, that is being held up because of environmental opposition. That's a big, big constraint, and there are a lot of mining permits being withheld because a lot of these countries, who would like the investment, are afraid to look bad in the eyes of the global environmental movement.

What else is contributing to production problems?

Another factor is the cost of building a mine has gone up dramatically. The Fed would like to think there is no inflation, but the cost of building a mine is up by roughly 50% in the last five years. You would think if your product price went up by 100% in a five-year period, which it basically has, that the companies would be rolling in cash. But returns on equity are low. Newmont Mining's return on equity is less than 2% in the latest 12 months. Gold Fields' is 8%. Randgold Resources' is about 11%.

A third factor is that some of the locales where gold is being found are not all that hospitable to private enterprises. Most noteworthy is Venezuela. Its president, Hugo Chavez, has a certain cultural and ideological view that is gaining influence in other South American countries, such as Bolivia and Ecuador and Peru. The risk premiums are going up for putting a lot of money into places that are otherwise geologically very attractive. Russia has great geology, but it is dicey in terms of its rule of law and the sanctity of contracts.

What, then, is attractive about these stocks?

Only one thing, and that is if the gold price goes up a lot, they go almost overnight from being mediocre businesses to being really great businesses for a while. The potential for a reversal of fortune is enormous.

How high does the gold price have to go before it results in meaningful change at these companies?

We are in the area: The $700s or maybe $800.

Interview -- Part II











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[spaceparallax] 28/9/2007 09:37

An upbeat report that confirms the significant potential within the Company portfolio - I particularly look forward to seeing the definition creep towards production.

[valentine] 28/9/2007 08:19

I will if our other interest pays off shortly. A little stretched otherwise

[robbi123] 28/9/2007 08:16

happy enough with Mali and Ghana for now BB:) are you tempted to add?

[bongo bwana] 28/9/2007 08:13

GEX was not the instigator of the JV talks on Ghana. It has been pursued by an ardent admirer of its very promising and highly prospective assets at Asheba. This pursit has been over almost a couple of years and it would be another jewell to add to GEX's crown.

Not much to say about Uganda at the moment!

[robbi123] 28/9/2007 08:01

In talks with a JV for the Ghana prospect too. Good set of results imo, roll on October.

[davenic] 28/9/2007 08:01

Nice reading :-)

[valentine] 28/9/2007 07:10

Glencar Half-yearly report


Half-yearly report
Glencar Mining plc Interim Statement for the six months ended 30 June 2007Glencar Mining plc ("Glencar" or the "Company"), the AIM and IEX
listed company with gold exploration interests in Africa, today
announces its results for the six months ended 30 June 2007.
Highlights from the Chairman's statement:
* Reduced loss for the period ended 30 June 2007 of US$279,993 (six
months to 30 June 2006 US$(781,312));
* Cash balances of US$4.68 million: funds adequate to carry out all
planned exploration activities during the next field season in
Mali;
* Considerable success in Malian exploration programmes and an
independent resource study on the Komana West deposit is expected
shortly from SRK Consulting;
* Total of 12,500 metres of reverse circulation and diamond
drilling has been completed at Komana West;
* Exploration drilling carried out on the Badogo-Malikila target on
the Solona licence and on four of the targets in the Sankarani
Project, a joint venture with a subsidiary of Gold Fields
Limited;
Chairman's Statement.
We have seen considerable success in our Malian exploration programmes during the period under review, especially at the Komana West Project. We are expecting to receive an independent resource study on the Komana West deposit from SRK Consulting shortly.
Drilling continued at Komana West for almost all of the 2006/07 field
season, the onset of rains in early June bringing a suspension to
drilling activities until October 2007. A total of 12,500 metres of
reverse circulation and diamond drilling had been completed on the
property at that time.
Exploration drilling was also carried out on the Badogo-Malikila
target on the Solona licence and also on four of the targets in the
Sankarani Project, a joint venture with a subsidiary of Gold Fields
Limited. Discussions are taking place with a potential partner who
has expressed interest in participating in the further exploration of
the Asheba Licence in Ghana.
MALIGlencar holds five licences in Mali, West Africa, all of which are
being actively explored for gold mineralization. Two of the
licences, the Komana and Solona licences ( together referred to as
"The Yanfolila Project") are held by Glencar's 95% owned Malian
subsidiary company Glencar Mali s.a.r.l. Three of the licences are
held by another Glencar subsidiary, Sankarani Resources s.a.r.l. in
which the Gold Fields subsidiary is earning an interest through
exploration expenditures of up to US$12 million. These three licences
are collectively referred to as "The Sankarani Project".
Mali is a country with a well established, successful gold mining
industry. The country ranks third amongst the gold producing
countries of Africa, after South Africa and Ghana. It has a stable,
democratically elected government which is firmly supportive of the
mining industry.
The Yanfolila ProjectThe Yanfolila Project comprises the Komana and Solona licences in
which Glencar has a 95% interest. The Komana licence includes the
very exciting Komana West prospect, where some 12,500 metres of
reverse circulation and diamond drilling has already been completed
by Glencar. The Komana West deposit is contained within a north -
south trending structure and has been shown to have a strike length
of at least 1,100 metres, with clear potential for both strike and
depth extensions. The gold mineralization is contained within
sheared metasediments and quartz veins and is often of high grade.The mineralization is closely associated spacially with felsic
porphyry intrusive rocks, which are often highly altered.
A resource study is currently being completed by the independent
consultants, SRK Consultants and its delivery is expected shortly.
The next field programme will commence in October, after the end of
the rainy season. The programme will involve intensive drilling at
the Komana West deposit and also on other exploration targets on both
the Komana and Solona licences. At Komana West, the drilling will be
designed to increase the resource base through additional drilling
at depth and along strike, and also to increase confidence levels
within the resource through infill drilling on closer centres. The
deposit has been intersected in the deepest drillholes yet drilled,
so that we have strong expectations of increasing the resource at
depth with the deeper drillholes planned for the next phase of
drilling.
Some seven kilometres to the east of Komana West, the Komana East
target has been drilled by the previous licencees, Randgold
Resources Limited, who were then in joint venture with North
Limited. Following this drilling, the Randgold/North joint venture
estimated an unclassified, non JORC compliant resource of 280,000
ounces of gold for the Komana East deposit. We plan to drill on
this target during the coming field season and we believe that our
experience with the Komana West deposit will assist in more
accurately determining the full potential of the Komana East deposit.
There are also at least three additional exploration targets located
up to nine kilometres along strike to the south from Komana West and
it is also planned to drill these targets during the coming season.RAB drilling will also be carried out to the north of the Komana West
deposit to test for the northerly extension of the mineralisation
along the continuation of the Komana Shear Zone.
The Solona licence lies adjacent and to the east of the Komana
licence and contains a number of drill targets defined during our
recent exploration programmes, especially those at Badogo-Malikila,
Faliko and Niechilela. These targets, all of which have been the
subject of artisanal working, show anomalous coincident geochemistry
and geophysics and have been further defined by rock sampling and
geological mapping. Initial RAB drilling programmes are planned for
each target during the coming field season and any mineralization
encountered will be followed up with reverse circulation drilling.The Sankarani ProjectThe Sankarani Project comprises three licences, at Bokoro, Sanioumale
and Farasaba.These three licences are the subject of a Framework Agreement signed
with a subsidiary of Gold Fields Limited, (Gold Fields"), the world's
third largest gold producer. Under the terms of that agreement, the
Gold Fields subsidiary, may earn a 65% interest in the licences
through exploration expenditures of US$12 million. To date, just
over US$2.5 million has been spent on exploration and Gold Fields has
now earned a 25% interest in the project.
We have completed a total of 12,574 metres of reverse circulation and
diamond drilling on seven targets within the Sankarani Project. Two
of these targets in particular, Kabaya South on the Farasaba Licence
and Sanankoro on the Bokoro Licence have yielded encouraging results
and further, follow up drilling is planned for each of these
targets. The best intersection at Kabaya South was 43 metres at 1.7
grams/tonne (including 19 metres at 3.93 grams/tonne gold), while at
Sanankoro, the best result was 21 metres grading 1.12 grams/tonne
gold.
The field programme for the coming field season is currently being
finalised and as well as additional drilling programmes, it is likely
to involve a significant aeromagnetic survey over a large portion of
the Sankarani Project area.
GHANADuring the period under review, we have devoted most of our
management and financial resources to our Malian exploration
activities. The very prospective Asheba Project in Ghana, however,
has yielded positive results from drilling carried out within the
Atinasi-Tanaya area of the licence. Consequently, we are in
discussions with an interested party in relation to a joint venture
on the Asheba Project and we hope to have concluded such discussions
before year end.
In accordance with the Ghanaian licencing regulations, approximately
50% of the original licence area of 45 square kilometres has been
relinquished as part of the recently completed licence renewal
process.
UGANDAWith respect to our Makina Project in southeast Uganda, we are
awaiting the review of the results of the recently flown aeromagnetic
survey by the Ugandan authorities before deciding on the next stage
of exploration in this area. We are hopeful that this survey will
assist in the interpretation of the structural features of the area,
which in turn will assist us in delineating targets for follow up
work.
FINANCIALThe Company's unaudited profit and loss account, appended below, for
the period ended 30 June 2007, shows a loss of US$279,993 compared
to a loss of US$781,312 for the same period last year. The reduction
in loss is accounted for primarily by the absence of any Directors'
share option grants during the period under review. Increased
salaries and pension contributions and a weaker US Dollar were the
main factors in the increase in administrative expenses in US$
terms. Significantly increased exploration expenditures in Mali
account for the increase in intangible assets showing in the balance
sheet, also appended below. At 30 June 2007, we had a healthy cash
balance of US$4.7 million following a successful placing of 22.6
million new shares in April 2007. These funds are adequate to carry
out all planned exploration activities during the next field season
in Mali.
OUTLOOKThe very active drilling programmes carried out in Mali over the last
six months or so will be continued through to the end of the next
field season in Mali in June 2008. The most intensive activity will
be at Komana West, where the drill programmes are aimed at increasing
the resource there, both at depth and along strike, and also
improving the confidence levels within the existing resource base.Other exploration targets such as those at Komana East and at Kama,
nine kilometres south of Komana West will also be drilled. Any
success encountered in the planned drilling programme at Komana East,
seven kilometres east of the Komana West deposit, would obviously
have implications for the ultimate development of an orebody in the
area, since trucking of ore from one area to the other would be quite
feasible.
We are looking forward to another exciting drilling season and we
hope to be able to continue to report positive progress towards a
significant commercial discovery in Mali.
For further information, please contact:
Glencar Mining plc
Hugh McCullough, Managing Director
Tel: [phone]
e-mail: [e-mail] PR
Rachel Watchorn
Tel: [phone]
e-mail: [e-mail] Communications
Maxine Barnes/Nick Rome
Tel: [phone]
e-mail: [e-mail]

[valentine] 28/9/2007 07:08

"We are looking forward to another exciting drilling season and we
hope to be able to continue to report positive progress towards a
significant commercial discovery in Mali".


Half yearly report out see RNS

[bongo bwana] 27/9/2007 16:16

They are very welcome but those blue beards should be prepared to pay - starting at 15p would be grand.

But no one other than GF or Barrick are getting mine - no matter how long it takes. Unless of course Hugh Mc ever decides to take GEX private - then he can have mine for a negotiated price.

But in the meantime Im going to be adding at every opportunity.

Robbi, smokin drills means funds are consumed but GEX have comfortable funding for the forseeable future. My timeframe for corporate action would be around the time that they have to consider their options on the commencement of a more extensive drilling programme at Solona because, before then, Komana's fate may well have been decided. Let me know what you think GEX's options will be at that time, please.

Komana is pretty much sorted despite much more work needing to be done there.
Its time for us investors to think of the longer term future for GEX (part 2).

[bongo bwana] 27/9/2007 14:36

It is VERY EARLY days yet.

The JORC will be a milestone and may get GEX noticed a little better.

Much more significant news down the boreholes.

Much more significant corporate news perhaps in GEX's corporate DNA.

[ed 123] 27/9/2007 13:45

Yes, it's coming close. I'm not expecting anything miraculous. It won't be the final picture, of course, just a snap shot. Plenty more drilling to come and further updates, as and when. However it will be an important milestone and one which may get GEX noticed.

[valentine] 27/9/2007 13:36

Mid-Oct?..that's two weeks away...well from Monday it is.