Mining Minerals & Metals Share Discussion Threads

[stenick] 18/8/2009 11:19

Thanks Willy, but there still seems to be a lot of shares sold that are unaccounted for. Sorry if I am being obtuse.

[bongo bwana] 18/8/2009 11:00

WE could do with Tommy O'Gorman making a bid for GEX now.

Wheres Ur timing Tommy????

[1waving] 18/8/2009 10:39

GF should/will make an announcement on or shortly after the first acceptance date of 4th Sept.

[haydock] 18/8/2009 10:19

Many thanks ww.
We are all learning all the time.This is after all a recommended t/o.

As you say though you would expect to know a little more.

[willyworm2] 18/8/2009 10:11

I think some are getting confused as to how this takeover should be reported.

The offer is conditional on a number of factors. As a result, GF do not buy the shares from you at the moment if you simply tell your broker to accept the offer. You can sell them into the market and then GF can buy them, thats different, that would be reported as a change in GF holdings. But normally if you tell your broker to accept the offer then technically GF don't buy them then, they only buy them when the offer becomes unconditional, some time in September.

As a result GF have their own fully paid holdings, which are fully reported and seems to be around 30%. In addition they have commitments from share holders for an amount we don't know- may be 5% may be 30% - but because they don't buy them until they delcare the offer unconditional then they are not reported. Normally, I think, it is common for the buying company to report how many they have committed. So they would say that they own 30% and they jhave further commitments of say 25%, which would give them 55% if they proceed with the offer. The fact that GF have not yet declared the commitments from shareholders makes me think the take up is relatively low, although this could simply be a mtter of time.

But don't simply think that because we haven't had a RNS telling us that they have increased their direct share holding that they don't have commitments for other shares as well.

[stenick] 17/8/2009 16:55

I,m a little perplexed as to where all these shares are going, could it be that GF are selling a few to encourage the Pi's ,and buying back again and thats why there are no holding RNS's???????

[bongo bwana] 17/8/2009 15:36

Ur lil baby has just woken up!

[bongo bwana] 17/8/2009 15:18

Ah now SS...

They sought to capitalise on GEX's need for funding by suggesting a rights issue price at 2-3p and this would have led to unacceptable dilution and an share price stuck in the 2-3p region for a very long time.

Its a pity they did not spell out thier concerns publicly at the AGM or in a statemenrt a couple of weeks prior to the AGM.

[share_shark] 17/8/2009 15:04

Macquarie spotted the probability of the GF bid as early as December 2008 and that is why there were so many negative rumours floating about.


They were our friends and all we did was kick them sideways. Talk about heads in the sand !.

[dr fillip strange] 17/8/2009 14:41

Just been on the phone to the Irish Takeover Panel to clarify something

If the offer isn't accepted by a shareholder and GF acquire 80% or more the offer becomes wholly unconditional, there is a window of time where you can still take up the offer (and get your cash within 14 days), before the cumpulsory purchase of shares kicks in, the settlement of which takes ??

[haydock] 17/8/2009 13:34

At the time we all thought MacQ the villans, when now they may be the saints?
Truth stranger than fiction.

It may well be that they have commissioned their own report from about the time, of the AGM. They were said to be lobbying others & so may have had some positive figures of their own to use, simple rhetoric would not cut the mustard.

A contact with them would be of real value to us at this time.
It will take something to stop at least 50% of the small pi's bolting for the money at the due date.
Don't they need 75% for control though?

[bongo bwana] 17/8/2009 12:06

What I found VERY interesting was

"Venture responded by commissioning a report into the bid by an independent consulting company which valued the independent at between 1066p and 1385p".

I wonder will Macquarie and CDC fund a similar study on GEX's potential? It strikes me that they spotted the probability of a GF bid for GEX early in proceedings and thats why they made the move to get representation on the GEX Board ASAP. I now regret not supporting them.

[1waving] 17/8/2009 11:58

Interesting comparison --- wonder how long GF would be prepared to go as the new drilling season gets closer. Looks like Loeb Arbitrage Management would be looking for an increase in the offer. Looking out for the two biggest institutional shareholders, Macquarie and CDC Group, see what they do.

[haydock] 17/8/2009 11:48

This was a hostile , but it shows the pattern.

Offshore247.com » News » Natural gas » |-| United Kingdom
Centrica extends war with Venture, new date set
Published 14.08.2009 11:04:10 by Patrick McloughlinUK utility and energy giant Centrica - the owner of British Gas - on Friday announced that it is extending the deadline for its hostile bid for London-listed independent and North Sea gas producer Venture Petroleum.

Centrica in July bid $2bn, equvialent to 845 pence a Venture share, and fixed a deadline for August 13.

Venture responded by commissioning a report into the bid by an independent consulting company which valued the independent at between 1066p and 1385p.

But Centrica responded, saying that the report lacked credibility and relied "on overly optimistic assumptions regarding the outlook fo rgas prices."

On Friday Centrica, which also announced it has gotten acceptances for just under 41% of Venture shares, said the new deadline for shareholders to make up their minds to the offer was August 28.

"Centrica Resources further announces that the Offer, which remains subject to the terms and conditions set out or referred to in the offer document posted to Shareholders on 16 July 2009 (the "Offer Document"), is being extended and will remain open for acceptance until the next closing date which will be 1.00 p.m. (London time) on Friday 28 August 2009," the energy group said.
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[haydock] 17/8/2009 11:08

I do not agree, they will keep their nerve & extend.Most small pi's will cave in by the date anyway.
MacQ, are in the mix if Loeb are working for them, that could cause a price change.

It's a situation like that that will put the pressure on the price.
We should be looking for a rise in the quoted price if this situation was to become a reality.There are hints that GF are not in control of the market.

We should get an inkling this week if anything will cause a problem.

[1waving] 17/8/2009 10:31

Whether another bid/deal comes or not the offer is still derisory and without enough acceptances/%age of shares at the first acceptance date on 4th Sept Gold Fields will have to increase their offer.

The move into Mali is strategic and they want 100% of Glencar, not just a major percentage ---- and for that they will have to pay what is needed to shareholders.

Would be good to see them with less than 50% at the first acceptance date. Keeping an eye on Macquarie as a major shareholder.

[bongo bwana] 17/8/2009 09:33

GF certainly need a big 2 weeks but so do any competitor - and lets be frank about it - IF there is a competitor they need to be getting their fingers out and making a gangbuster offer to blow GF out of the water.

And that, I am sad to say is increasingly unlikely.

IMHO

[haydock] 17/8/2009 08:54

The opinion thet GF are not getting there @ 9P would appear to have some validity.
They have to buy from the small pi's & need volume.
MacQ still on the side & there are few other known large blocks.

Patience wait & see, no rush, nothing will be cut & dried until they have control.Still about 30%.They need a big 2 weeks.

[stenick] 17/8/2009 08:32

Who bought the other 2.5mill shares on friday because GF only got 60000??????

[dr fillip strange] 16/8/2009 00:05

wispa I reckon its all above board and legal with the share options, can't see them doing anything else but following their own recommendation and signing them over to GF for 9p.
If nothing materialises by the end of the month I am considering selling in the open market, somehow I don't trust GF or the directors here and may as well lock in profits and move on.. I have a wee stake in VGM which I might add to, probably see you over there

[stenick] 15/8/2009 19:56

Wispa, your ina boat off Cannes?????