Metals Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 29/2/2024 13:02

Mkt Cap is still particularly cheap given the FCF this will be throwing off after April when the Debt is clear

[mattjos] 29/2/2024 12:56

looks to be breaking out & up past the recent January highs

[mattjos] 26/2/2024 19:56

July 2018 was last time the price closed at this level

[ragpicker] 26/2/2024 12:06

Looks promising !

[mattjos] 25/2/2024 16:57

Sometimes look at charts in LOG format. in that format, MTL shows the price just now bursting out through a downtrend that has persisted since July 2007

[farnesbarnes] 23/2/2024 14:46

That's before gold gets it's shuffle on to 2300 USD/oz.

[mattjos] 23/2/2024 12:14

Arguably the 'bowl' shape that has been printed on the chart since October 2021 is actually a long-term Cup & Handle chart Pattern.
There was a prior uptrend that originated back at the start of 2019.
The Cup is approximately from 1p to 3p ie. a depth of 2p
Once we can finally break this 3p line of resistance, I believe we can realsitically look at a move towards 5p.
The fundamentals would seem to support such a price target as we achieve debt-free status in the next few weeks.
Thereafter, the cash pile will rapidly build and so to will the newsflow from exploration on the new acquisitions - these should contkinue to underpin a rising mkt cap.

[pyemckay] 23/2/2024 10:55

another day of volume and another nice rise.

[urchin1] 22/2/2024 14:31

Good to see an 11% increase!May it continue!

[mattjos] 19/2/2024 19:05

Folk like Darren Bowden do not just grow on trees. a very rare breed.
He said how loyal he is to the business and the owners & how he wants/intends to grow the business & that the key equity owners are backing him in that ambition.
The current price is much too low for anyone to consider equity-financed M&A so it' crack on as we are, clear the debt, get drilling on the new leases, develop this new tolling operation with local artisan miners & keep eyes & ears open for new opportunities.

[gary hindsight] 19/2/2024 18:50

I agree with mattjos I don't see the correlation of the debt repayment leading to a change of the board, unless I am missing something. According to the interview Darren was effectively headhunted by nick candy with whom he said he has an excellent relationship. What would be the benefit of changing the board after getting them to debt free. Surely they would stick with him to realise the ambition of turning this into a £2bln company. What's the option, appoint another ceo or other board members when they have one they trust who has delivered on the initial target? Am I missing something here?

[mattjos] 19/2/2024 11:02

Achieving Debt-Free will be such a notable achievement for the company ... a stunning turnaround by Darren Bowden and the team.
In the interview he certainly comes across as a man on a mission & I see no reason why the majority equity owners will not continue to back him and the team.

[marmalade44] 19/2/2024 10:08

The boardroom became a better place upon completion of the debt restructuring when independant board members could be appointed and the board could now act independently of the two largest shareholders.

The revolving credit facility has a term of 10 years from the date that the debt is repaid. This runs past the current life of mine so the two largest shareholders obviously were happy to be involved with the long term future of the company when this was being discussed four years ago.

[holism] 19/2/2024 08:32

marmalade decisions on most things were all about repayment of debt not the future of the company in my view. I think the board room will be a better place after all debt repaid. Lets see how this develops, not long to go.

[marmalade44] 18/2/2024 18:39

The debt holders wanted a debt for equity swap deal done when they bought the company's debt. The board said no.

What level of influence do you think they have other than the approx 68% voting rights?

[holism] 18/2/2024 18:03

The mez debt holders have a position of influence which will disappear when its repaid. That I think will be good news and free up decision making for the benefit of ordinary shareholders. Lets see what happens when the debt is repaid.

[sparki2] 16/2/2024 12:02

Yes, I also think this is an outstanding opportunity - Daren is a highly experienced operator in the sector; he and his team have demonstrated very clearly their capacity and ability to deliver the goods by the way in which they have turned Runruno around from the dire situation it was in, which had threatened the very future of MTL.I think it is on the cards we will be debt free by the end of March, then the cash pile will start to accumulate quickly. This cash generation in the last few years of mine life at Runruno will provide a very strong platform upon which to execute the expansion plans which have been well explained by DB.Nick Candy clearly recognises the potential to build upon the recovery that has been achieved by Boden and his team with the opportunity this has now created of developing MTL into a major player in the Philippines and in the larger region. It feels like the strong cash position will easily satisfy current plans so there will be no need for any low-ball dilution of the equity - I'm not expecting any dilution below around 8p per share (market cap of c. £168m).As the significance of the development plan gains growing recognition and milestones are achieved the current market cap of around £55m could look like it was a real snip.AIMO/DYOR and GLA

[mattjos] 15/2/2024 16:38

same as Gary .. dont agree with send part of your post holism.
Darren was quite clear with the scale of their ambition in that interview

[gary hindsight] 15/2/2024 15:18

I agree to your point that from a debt perspective they have done well and to be fair without them the company would have gone bust. However I don't agree with the second part of your post on a number of counts. Nick Candy as largest shareholder deals in big numbers and whilst the debt has given a decent return for him surely the real prize will be the realisation of the statement made by Darren in that interview that he sees with acquisition and prospects a $2bn company that's a serious ambition and. £1 share price. Who knows if that's really achievable and in what time frame but so far he has done a massive job in getting to where we are now. So then I don't understand why you implying the board change would be positive if it meant losing the guy who got us out of the mess it was in with a significant ambition to grow the company

[holism] 15/2/2024 14:58

Spark I would add a couple of riders. In my view the mezanine shareholders have had one thing in mind and that was to get their money back and they have done well first of all by buying the bank debt at a substantial discount and negotiating with themselves a handsome interest rate on the mez debt. Remember though they invested a great deal as ordinary shareholders. I don't think they have any interest in the future of the company.And that leads me to the view if there is surplus cash a dividend will be announced. After that the board will changed. That could be good news.Any body agree with that?

[sparki2] 12/2/2024 02:27

It is going to be very interesting what hope value is placed on the shares given managements successful track record and the plans it has laid for the future - particularly with copper coming into the mix when it is becoming such a highly prized metal.

[senn1] 10/2/2024 09:11

They will after debt is paid be having at least 10 to 15 mill cash being made each quarter so 40 mill eoy

A conservative PE of 10 take some spend off imho 10 to 15p summer tbis year

[marmalade44] 09/2/2024 17:01

As they are using all free cash to pay down the debt, when the debt is cleared the EV will be the market cap as there will be zero debt and zero cash.

As no one will know what the share price will be when this happens, no one will be able to give you an actual figure.

I hope this answers your question.

[holism] 09/2/2024 15:29

All good points above. Time will tell. What will the enterprise value be after all debt repaid? I am not sure the market will give too much value to blue sky at the moment.

[mattjos] 08/2/2024 21:03

Thank for the video link swanvesta ... excellent interview. He is very articulate and focussed.
Debt-free status 1 month later than I had anticipated but otherwise, pretty much everything an investor could wish to hear.
He indicated the current valuation less than the dividend expected to be paid out were they simply to wind up the business in four years time and distribute out all the money. This is clearly not going to linger below 5p for too much longer this year.