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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metals Exploration Plc | MTL | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.15 | -2.86% | 5.10 | 09:14:46 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.25 | 5.05 | 5.25 | 5.10 | 5.25 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| MINING |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 27/4/2024 10:48 by mattjos On the High Street in Hungerford, a historic market town about an hour west of Reading, is Nigel Montgomery’s stamp and coin shop. He has traded precious metals for about 50 years, but has never seen a gold rush like this: the price of a troy ounce, the unit used to weigh precious metals that dates to the Middle Ages, hit an all-time high this month, above $2,400. “We’ve never seen so much retail demand as we are seeing at the moment,” says the 67-year-old. “I’ve been through various gold and silver booms since the 1970s — we’re seeing a more sustained, stronger and genuine rally.” Investors have snapped up tax-free capital gains in gold sovereign and Britannia coins to hedge their portfolios against inflation and any escalation of conflict in the Middle East. So much so that Montgomery is continuously having to replenish his stock.But the origins of this gold rush are thousands of miles from Montgomery’s town — and far from the historic global trading centres of London, Zurich and New York — in Beijing and Shanghai. The People’s Bank of China led record gold purchases by central banks in 2022 and 2023, collectively buying above 1,000 tonnes each year, as emerging markets sought to diversify their reserve holdings away from the US dollar, which was weaponised by Washington in sanctions against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. Chinese retail investors have amassed gold as other investments from property to local equities turn sour. Chinese hedge funds and other speculators have also piled in. “This rally has Chinese characteristics written all over it,” says John Reade, chief market strategist at the World Gold Council, an industry lobby group. “Everything leads back to different actors in China.” While punters in Hungerford and at Costco stores across the US go gaga for gold, the western investor has, by and large, sat on the sidelines of gold’s latest rally. Gold-backed exchange traded funds (ETFs) have continued to experience monthly outflows, while bar and coin demand has been abysmal in Germany, typically the world’s third-largest market. Andreas Habluetzel, chief executive of Degussa Goldhandel, Europe’s largest gold dealer, which owns London’s Sharps Pixley, says the cost of living crisis and stubborn inflation is driving customers to sell. “We all want to keep the same lifestyle: sending your kids to good schools and owning two cars. When we talk to the middle-income people they are liquidating as they need money,” he says. That creates a dilemma for the western armchair investor. Gold has rallied some $600 per troy ounce since conflict erupted between Israel and Hamas in October, yet the staggering rise is widely seen by analysts as disproportionate to the gold price’s usual drivers: real rates on US Treasuries, the dollar and ETF flows. “This is not the behaviour of gold. It’s more or less the behaviour of crypto,” says Habluetzel. When the asset is so volatile, should investors rely on it as a haven asset? And if the market’s centre of gravity is shifting to a set of investors in China with a fundamentally different set of concerns to your own, should you bank on backing bullion? From a tactical perspective, gold’s sharp rise could make it poised for a sharp correction, having already fallen about $50 this week, making it a dangerous entry point. But others argue gold has a cohort of buyers waiting in the wings for any dips to pile into gold — including western ETF investors that have not participated yet. Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh says that it is likely that “any profit-taking by early investors would be replaced by investment from those who have so far not participated in the move”. Looking further out, the question for investors is whether they believe the global monetary system is at the early innings of sweeping transformation. That might be a new era of persistent inflation that erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies and great power competition that increases gold’s share of reserve assets at the US dollar’s expense. Max Belmont, portfolio manager of the Gold strategy at First Eagle Investments, an asset manager, says that gold is “sniffing out” mounting concerns over the sustainability of global debt levels. US debt increases by about $1tn every 100 days or so with interest rates at their current levels, while investors fear Europe could struggle to manage debt levels if Donald Trump enters the White House and pushes for Nato defence spending to rise. The IMF warned this month that the US, China, Italy and the UK “critically need to take policy action” on debt. Neither US presidential candidate shows much sign of wanting to rein in spending. Nicky Shiels, precious metals analyst at MKS Pamp, a Swiss refinery and trader, says surging gold prices anticipate a “big regime change the west is going through”, from erosion of US dollar purchasing power, higher-for-longer inflation and a multipolar world. When it comes to US debt, she says the market has grown increasingly convinced that the Fed may cut interest rates even if inflation roars higher in order to reduce the interest payments that the US government is servicing (the Fed is independent of the Treasury). “This is it: two decades of easing monetary policy coming to a head,” she says. On the other hand, emerging market central banks and sovereign wealth led by China, Russia and the Middle East are buying gold after the US sanctioned billions of dollars of Moscow’s reserves held in US bonds. “It’s the dollar losing utility as an asset to store trade surpluses,” says John Hathaway, managing partner of Sprott Inc, a Canadian asset manager specialising in metals. Gold has traditionally tracked real rates of US Treasuries but he adds that “the Fed’s policies may not matter anymore to gold prices” given the new club of buyer’s motivations. And Chinese investors are taking cues from their own central banks’ purchases. “An awful lot of private wealth is going to be running into gold as there’s nothing else to buy: property sucks, equities lose you money, cash in the bank is paying nothing and they can’t get the money offshore,” says Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, an online gold marketplace. But others say geopolitical risks, the dollar’s demise and debt concerns are over-egged. “The world is not nearly as risky as [in] 1980,” says James Steel, chief precious metals analyst at HSBC, when gold hit its inflation-adjusted record high well above $3,000 per troy ounce. For retail investors concerned that they missed riding the wave of frothy gold prices, one option could be gold mining equities. Valuations of the world’s gold producers, led by Newmont and Barrick Gold, have rarely been as heavily discounted in the past 40 years versus the gold price as they are now, according to asset manager Schroders. That has made the gold mining sector’s collective valuation at roughly $300bn no bigger than Home Depot, the US DIY retailer. The theory is that lofty gold prices will feed through to higher margins when gold producers next report earnings, sending share prices shooting up. “It’s a different risk-reward. If gold prices double then you should get a bigger increase in your margin,” says Robert Crayfourd, who manages the Golden Prospect Precious Metals fund at CQS, an asset manager. Jim Luke, fund manager at Schroders, wrote in a recent note that “dismal western sentiment” on gold and poor operational delivery by the sector’s leading companies were behind the low valuations. “It is not hyperbole to say the sector could rally 50 per cent and still look inexpensive,” he says. Gold mining equities face structural challenges from their ESG credentials, as they play little role in the energy transition, rising political risk in cash-strapped developing nations from Mali to Mexico and declining reserves. More troubling, however, is that this gold rally has been driven by the Chinese central bank, retail investors, asset managers and funds for whom western gold mining equities hold little appeal. Investors have been deterred by the sector’s inability to tame cost inflation from vital inputs such as fuel, explosives and cyanide in the past couple of years and overspending during previous booms. Fund managers want to see proof that margins will march higher. “It has taken seven years to get a 100 per cent return on gold when you can do that in bitcoin in a year Jason Todt John McCluskey, chief executive of Alamos Gold, a mid-sized Canadian gold producer, says that the tech-led run for equity markets, with the Dow Jones breaking above 38,000, makes it hard to call when gold producers will get a look in. “‘The party is going full tilt. I think I’ll go home to check the gas is on’ — you’re not going to do that now. ‘I’ll stick it out and put it in these gold funds that haven’t performed well for 10 years’ — you don’t do that,” he says. But, he adds: “When they see the margins then they will buy those equities.” Jason Todt calls himself one of the new breed of “retired gold bugs” who are partying hard. After the global financial crisis, the manager of a car dealership in Missouri spent $100,000 from a property sale on gold. Had the 47-year-old held on to all of his bullion until now, it would be worth $120,000. Instead, Todt earned $1.5mn by selling $65,000 of his gold hoard in 2017 to buy bitcoin and other assets, enabling him to retire early in 2020, meet his Ukrainian wife and travel the world in a sailboat. “It has taken seven years to get a 100 per cent return on gold when you can do that in bitcoin in a year,” he says. Todt’s situation highlights the pull for many investors of potential mega-returns through cryptocurrencies, AI and tech stocks over the pursuit of wealth preservation. Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell, warns that even for those trying to cling on to their wealth, gold often fails to fulfil its “safe haven” reputation because it is volatile and trades sideways or downwards for long periods of time. “It shouldn’t be a big part of your portfolio,” he says. “No more than 5 per cent.” But the wealthy of the world appear to disagree. US funds, family offices and asset managers are increasing gold’s allocation within their portfolios to 10-15 per cent, up from 5-7 per cent, says Habluetzel of Degussa. That is underpinned by gold’s long-run ability to preserve wealth — if bought at the right time. Since 1970, when US President Richard Nixon untethered the dollar from gold, bullion has produced an average return of just below 8 per cent a year, says Peter Clark, a retired fund manager. For Montgomery in Hungerford, gold is a must-have insurance policy for investors to protect themselves against an end to the equity and crypto mania. “If we had world peace and a more stable economy, gold would be steady or go down,” he says. “But the world isn’t a stable place. People have had a really good run on the stock markets and property prices have kept going up. W |
Posted at 19/4/2024 19:24 by mattjos been doing some research on the new tenement areas they have secured .... Wow! they have pulled off a stunning deal, imo.Very significant potential in/around that area. Early doors sample analysis in H1 & then Drill results in H2 could be very very interesting. The more i research, the more i am becoming a committed investor. Had not fully appreciated the potential in this part of the world and that there is already some good exploration data from many years ago that has not been followed up on - presumably interim political scene has not been particularly supportive to the industry but certainly now is. We are now well entrenched with an excellent track-record & this is first push outside of Runruno ... most interesting. |
Posted at 10/4/2024 15:29 by marmalade44 Interactive Investor and Hargreaves are nominee accounts for their retail customers. My shares are part of the Interactive Investor's 4% holding. 70% of the shares are held by three entities - Candy, Edwards and Baker Steel. 30% of shares are held by retail investors. The Financial Times quotez a free float of 693m shares. |
Posted at 10/4/2024 13:23 by johnybigarms There are 5 main holders holding 78% of the shares, Candy 46%, Edwards 19%, Interactive Investor 4% Baker Steel 5% and Hargreaves 4%1 year old info but it will correct still. |
Posted at 06/4/2024 13:44 by sparki2 Yes, all to play for here.Management, in the shape of Darren Boden and his team have got a big green light to execute their exciting expansion plans for the company by their achievement of the award winning safety record and the outstanding financial performance at Runruno.If, as The Aden Sisters predict, we are in the throes of the continuation of this strong Wave C (up-wave) in this bull market for gold the free cash flow generation is just going pile up and pile up into a very big pile!With its £100m market cap, that strong cash flow, the groundswell of excitement about the possible gold and copper grades at the Abra tenement, plus the additional M&A prospects, agile Institutional Investors will want to be aboard this fledgling as the growth story unfolds.Longer term, I for one, will not be betting against Darren Boden achieving his ambition of building MTL, as a regional player, into a $2b company (or was it £2b?) - perfectly happy with either! For the record, this does not actually imply a 100p share price, because some dilution should be expected, (but no problem with that because any dilution would be at significantly higher prices than today's price).My target price for this year is also 10p but exploration success could make this look very cheap indeed.GLAIMHO/DYOR |
Posted at 29/3/2024 17:38 by farnesbarnes Sharescope 28.3.24The gold price has been perking up in recent weeks – is now the time to be looking at the wide array of gold-based funds, especially in this era of monetary inflation powered by big government? This month David also looks at whether the private equity market is improving, plus he shines the spotlight again on London’s very successful handful of Georgian-based investments. Gold ETFs and Funds Gold as an asset class is always a divisive subject. There are many, many gold bears – for much of the last decade I was probably in that camp – alongside a growing, young army of Bitcoin enthusiasts who deride the shiny precious metal as “so old school”. And it’s true that on the bitcoin argument if we superimpose the bitcoin price since Covid against gold, then the cryptocurrency has shot the lights out (with much higher volatility). I also can’t help but think there is a generational shift at work. Many younger investors simply can’t see the appeal of gold and are opting for Bitcoin and its peers as a classic hedge against risk. Amongst the wider bears, there’s also a sense of quiet disappointment. We’ve just emerged on the other side of a sustained inflationary surge and yet gold is only up 11% over the last two years and 26% over the last three years. Those positive returns aren’t to be sniffed at but they are hardly the gains promised by some gold bugs. And yet gold has also remained remarkably stable in price and has only broken past $2100 an ounce in the last few weeks. Over the medium term, it is one of the most stable asset classes of the recent past although it is worth noting that over the last few months, the FTSE ALL share index has actually displayed lower levels of volatility. It’s also worth noting that this price rise has happened despite evidence of significant outflows at the fund levels. Ever since the SEC legalised bitcoin tracker structures, there have been very heavy flows into bitcoin ETFs, whereas for gold funds it’s the reverse. According to the World Gold Council (WGC) at the beginning of March, there had been significant outflows of assets in gold funds, a trend that’s been true for the last nine months. By contrast gold purchases by central banks have remained impressive. The WGC reported at the end of January that “Central bank demand, a key driver of gold in recent years, maintained its momentum in Q4 as a further 229t was added to global official gold reserves. This lifted annual (net) demand to 1,037t, just short of the record set in 2022 of 1,082t. Global official sector gold reserves are now estimated to total 36,700t. Two successive years of over 1,000t of buying is a testament to the recent strength in central bank demand for gold. Central banks have been consistent net buyers on an annual basis since 2010”. So, the report card for gold is, I would suggest, mixed. Gold has lost some of its popularity to bitcoin and private investors are less than enthusiastic at the funds flow level. But pricing has remained stable and the price has been breaking through key support levels, helped along by strong institutional buying of the precious metal, especially by central banks. What might happen next? On one level, the prognosis isn’t positive. Bitcoin continues to grab popular attention, and inflation rates are ebbing away again, removing some support for gold. Equity volatility is also reasonably low, and there’s no sign of an imminent recession. Crucially the dollar remains strong, based on a basket of trade-weighted currencies, which is usually a headwind for gold. On the positive side, lower interest rates might be helpful to gold – gold tends to underperform in environments where interest rates are rising. There’s also the ever-present chance that geopolitics and especially the US General Election might trip up the equity bulls and push up volatility. I would add another crucial, possible driver – monetary inflation propelled by burgeoning government deficits. It seems to me – and many other observers, including The Economist magazine – that one of the big stories of the coming decade is the problematic fiscal position of governments in the US and the UK. Debt levels are already high, deficits wide, and demands for more government spending insatiable. As I’ve frequently mentioned, even those of us who hold Keynes in high regard are slightly troubled by this development. Deficit spending makes sense in a downturn, but running a massive deficit even during a strong economy is not something the much-lauded Cambridge economist would have approved. Yet that’s what we have in much of the Western world – and if we must build up our defence capability, that deficit could go even higher while an ageing population will also intensify the pressure to spend more. I’m not one minute making the argument that this means we will trip into a crisis because, if nothing else, the example of Japan shows us that you can run a massive deficit and still boast a stable fiscal position – it just forces central banks to get ever more involved with buying their own government’s bonds. However, that also implies that increasing monetary inflation and the asset class implications of this shift are worth considering. The obvious asset to consider is gold, a classic hedge against some forms of inflation. One of my favourite strategists Michael Howell at Cross Border Capital has run an analysis on this and come out strongly bullish for the shiny, precious metal, based on a global liquidity perspective. Here’s an executive summary from a recent report which I think sums it up nicely: “The problem is debt. Higher gold and crypto prices may already be spelling out a warning. New debts must be financed, and old debts serviced and re-financed. Global Liquidity (a.k.a. monetary inflation) needs to keep pace. The US debt/ GDP ratio is slated to test 250% by 2050. Public debts can always be financed: the debate concerns at what price? Assuming Global Liquidity rises pari passu, the outlook for monetary inflation hedges looks compellingly attractive.” I’ve listed his main points below, all of which seem eminently reasonable to this observer: The trend rise in the future US public debt/ GDP ratio can be arithmetically justified. Assuming a starting point of 100% debt/ GDP ratio, future relative debt growth depends positively on the size of the primary fiscal deficit plus the average interest rate on debt and negatively on underlying GDP growth.ยท Fiscal deficits of a whopping 7-8% of GDP look set to rumble on over the 2025-34 period. These deficits must be funded, by definition. They can be funded through issuing short-term government liabilities, such as Treasury bills and Fed debt purchases, or through longer-term coupon issuance. They can also be funded domestically or internationally. Whereas the overall Fed balance sheet is slated to double in size over the next decade, the liquidity-creating components could actually triple. In other words, Fed liquidity, which currently fuels money markets to the tune of US$3 trillion annually, looks set to climb rapidly to US$9 trillion. With something like US$350 trillion of debt outstanding Worldwide, an of average 5-year maturity, around US$70 trillion must be rolled over each year. This requires balance sheet liquidity across the financial sector. More financial sector liquidity whether provided directly by the Fed or indirectly via more Treasury bill issuance and bank loans are key sources of monetary inflation. Monetary inflation is not necessarily the same thing as high street inflation, but it is a component alongside cost inflation. Investors need to hedge against monetary inflation. Historically, the best hedges have been gold, residential real estate and (assuming not too rapid inflation) equities. The worst hedge is bonds My own sense is that if gold’s positive upward momentum continues, we could see $2500 tested at some point over the next 12 to 24 months, especially if there is an uptick in geopolitical uncertainty. A sudden unexpected economic slowdown in the US, by contrast, could unnerve investors, and push gold prices lower. |
Posted at 07/3/2024 11:24 by gary hindsight I don't know if it is just me feeling this but it seems the share price moves up on much lower buying volume than before. There were days when large quantities could be bought without shifting the price but less so recently. Leads me to think that the free float (which is really only around 35%) is being held quite tightly by investors. This circa 4p is providing a solid base and with gold on the up this means more free cash flow for March for repaying the debt. I think any increase in debt repayment vs expectations will also spur the price on further. However we did see grades drop off in Q4 last year. Still sticking with target of 5p by year end but increasingly thinking this may be conservative if free float remains tight |
Posted at 19/1/2024 14:49 by the count of monte_cristo Have you ever looked at CLA? Also Philippines focused, listed on the LSE and seemingly hidden to investors with zero interest. They rebuffed a takeover offer from Silvercorp last year. Have massive long life copper gold projects. Anyway, if anyone wants to research I have set up a new bb. |
Posted at 18/1/2024 22:01 by ih_836195 Good Evening all Metals Exploration Long Term Holders and last year new investors.I will NOT be selling any of my 12,146.000 shares in Mtl to a consortium of 3 highly aggressive multimillionaire sharks namely NC his brother and Edwards. No intention of selling out at a miserable pittance of 4 to 7.4 pence in the next few weeks. VIVA METALS EXPLORATION and our great CEO Darren !! |
Posted at 11/1/2024 10:46 by jonnyreggae Good job Bowden with turning the mine around. Poor job Bowden on Investor Relations. Been waiting 2 years for a strategy update. Does this company have a future beyond Runruno LOM? We need to know! Seems insiders are the only ones who do know and you are being paid a fat salary for keeping small investors in the dark. |
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