Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[wbjunior] 18/10/2007 16:32

lol, all the bullish indicators in the world, but no one wants to buy???

Perhaps after results they will, or perhaps not, what do you think?

On a post card to the "Holders of over three years association"..............lol of to snooker have a good evening.................wbj

[momentos] 18/10/2007 16:28

Sharecrazy have some interesting major holder data (at the bottom)

[momentos] 18/10/2007 16:07

BTW iii's "Technical Insight" has the following, all gibberish to me tbh!
The tide is turning!


EVENTS:

16 Oct 2007 Momentum Short-Term Bullish 112.40 n/a
16 Oct 2007 Commodity Channel Index Short-Term Bearish 112.40 n/a
16 Oct 2007 Fast Stochastic Short-Term Bullish 112.40 n/a
12 Oct 2007 Relative Strength Index (RSI)W Intermediate-Term Bullish 111.05 n/a
04 Oct 2007 Short-term KST Short-Term Bullish 113.00 n/a
28 Sep 2007 Commodity Channel IndexW Other 112.00 n/a
03 Sep 2007 Double Moving Average Crossover (50-day 200-day) Intermediate-Term Bearish 125.75 n/a
10 Aug 2007 Price Crosses Moving Average (50-week)W Long-Term Bearish 131.50 n/a
02 Aug 2007 Price Crosses Moving Average (200-day) Long-Term Bearish 144.93 n/a
27 Jul 2007 Williams %RW Short-Term Bearish 148.00 n/a
22 Jun 2007 Intermediate-term KST Intermediate-Term Bearish 186.00 n/a

[momentos] 18/10/2007 15:44

These are AFAIK known Analyst Estimates:

Dont know if KBC Peel Hunt still cover.

CURRENT YEAR:

Shore Capital / Hardman

2007 Revenue: 72.5m / 71.1m
2007 Pre Tax: 8.0m / 7.8m
2007 EPS Est: 19.6p / 19.8p
2007 Divi: 4.3p / 4.0p

Note: If you can trust idigtallook trends, Shore upped from 66m sales about a month ago. Hardman also increased from their Feb 2007 (ex 25m Greenmark) Est of 42.2m / 15.7 EPS.

NEXT YEAR:

Shore Capital / Hardman

2008 Revenue: 82.9m / 81.2m
2008 Pre Tax: 10.6m / 10.4m
2008 EPS Est: 26.1p / 26.3p
2008 Divi: 5.0p / 4.3p

Note: No prior Hardman forecast. Shore cap forecast increased slightly (1m) recently.

SO as you can see this share is hugely overvalued!!

[wbjunior] 18/10/2007 15:08

The problem is that for comparison the last Interim figures published are always compared with the latest Interim figures and although no YSL, clean this time investors may disregard this and anything below the 10.2 eps achieved last time may be seen as no growth..........................wbj
Thats how fickle the market seems or perhaps I'm getting a bit frustrated with the low company value.

[momentos] 18/10/2007 14:49

BTW HArdman comment:

"The primary driver of this increase has been the aggressive wholesale buying of YSL prior to Marchpole ceasing to manufacture its YSL diffusion line. We had been forecasting YSL sales of £43m – circa 70% over the prior year's sales. It now appears that YSL sales were significantly higher than this, perhaps as high as £60m."

So if UK income was 72m in 2006/7, that means at least 12m comes from elsewhere. Perhaps my estimates are too low. Not sure how much of Spring/Summer 2007 Ungaro booked into 2007 H2, perhaps there was quite a bit.

It seems unlikely that they could manage to sell through YSL to 60m, effectively 1.5 extra years worth of stock?! Cant see it with current distribution practice.

[momentos] 18/10/2007 14:45

They dont give interims...! As you have indicated, halving the full year is not correct. Marchpole H2 is traditionally the stronger half.

[eagle eye3] 18/10/2007 13:30

winter range is more expensive by far, I know 1 factory that dose not make a summer range as it is too cheap. If you want to guess the interim's go look at Hardmans report, it cannot be far out

[momentos] 18/10/2007 12:41

lol.

Would say re my UK figures, I really dont have a clue! They have a full year turnover of 72m excluding Greenmark to fall down from. I am giving them only 12m for the half year. Could be way out.

[deanroberthunt] 18/10/2007 12:37

oops sorry, looks like me maths is as bad as Marchpoles's admin.

FY £6m at 10x = 60MCAP....more like it!!!

[momentos] 18/10/2007 12:32

DRH those are my INTERIM not full year figures!!

[deanroberthunt] 18/10/2007 12:31

if we're forecasting around £3 pbt, then the market seem to have got this right with 30m MCAP, 10x earnings....unless the forward statement/figures are impressive.

rgs

[momentos] 18/10/2007 12:21

Half by half Historics.

SEP 02: 6.1M
MAR 03: 9.9M
SEP 03: 8.0M
>29 Jan 04 JCC Acquisition
MAR 04: 12.0 M
>08 Sep 04 Ungaro Licence
SEP 04: 15.7M
MAR 05: 15.8M
SEP 05: 14.9M
>01 Jan 06 Moda America Acquisition
MAR 06: 23.4M
>21 Aug 06 Homebody Acquisition
SEP 06: 38.6M
>01 JAN 07 Greenmark Acquisition
MAR 07: 51.9M

Admin Expenses 2005:6.9m 2006:9.1m 2007: 14.9m
Distrib Costs 2005: 3.1m 2006:2.2m 2007: 4.2m
Finance Costs 2005: 0.25m 2006:0.54m 2007: 1.73m

THe thing I cant get a handle on is the UK bounce from Mar 06 to Mar 07. UK revenues FY 2006 were 28.5m vs 2007 of 75.2m. Even if we knock off 3m for Greenmark, I am at a loss to explain the increase from 28.5m to 72m - 43.5m all in. By my reckonings YSL was 25m annually with a 10m bounce, primarily in the six months to Mar 2007 (booked as delivered).

So where does the extra 33m come from, did YSL really increase HY sales to nearly 25m from less than 15m?

[wbjunior] 18/10/2007 11:32

Good analysis and I don't think you will be far out momentos
cheers......wbj

[qackers] 18/10/2007 10:20

egm

19-20 Berners Street, London, W1T 3LW on 20th November at 10am

[wbjunior] 18/10/2007 09:34

So 7.5+12+20(10+30/2)= 39.5 turnover, compared with 38.6 last year then?

I will be very pleased with that momentos, should at least equal 10.2 eps if I have interpreted your figures correctly.

Anyone else have any forecast figures for the coming interim's

regards........wbj

[momentos] 18/10/2007 09:07

Not so hard.....

Those figures should be exclusive of YSL bounce. H2 by subtraction was:

* Turnover up to #51.9 million (2005:#23.5 million)
* Operating profit #5.1 million (2005: #3.8 million)
* Profit before tax #4.3 million (2005: #3.5 million)

* EPS of 12.8 pence per share (2005: restated 8.7 pence, restated for 1
for 5 share consolidation)

3.2m H2 turnover is from Greenmark, otherwise we can see a "bounce" of about 10m. As can be seen the bounce was at the expense of reduced margins as H1 / H2 profits were similar.

A bounce free half without Greenmark was about 38m sales. 14.5m Annual sales last year non UK. So say about "normal" half year UK sales is 30m. How much of this is YSL?

Anyway we should ens up with

min 7.5m Overseas (Moda JCC) increasing rapidly.
c 12m Greenmark if holding as is.

+ UK Sales Apparel, anything from 10m to 30m!! No idea... As for margins, depends on scalability of costs base.

[wbjunior] 18/10/2007 08:42

Sept 2006 Interim Figures
Financial and Operational Highlights


* Turnover up to #38.6 million (2005:#14.9 million)

* Operating profit #5.0 million (2005: #1.2 million)

* Profit before tax #4.0 million (2005: #1.0 million)

* EPS of 10.2 pence per share (2005: restated 2.3 pence, restated for 1
for 5 share consolidation)
Any guestimates how Sept 2007 will compare to the previous year?
Hard act to follow imo.........................regards wbj

[marben100] 17/10/2007 20:04

Last year, interims were on 15th Nov. No date set yet for this year.

[eagle eye3] 17/10/2007 19:21

is that before or after the interim results

[qackers] 17/10/2007 17:09

Thanks. Phoned Marchpole and left a message. If they get back to me I will post the details here

[wbjunior] 17/10/2007 17:03

Just back in and I see no change of direction, another day tomorrow untouched...............have a good evening..............wbj
PS If anyone can post the circular it would be appreciated, like Quakers my holding is in Nominee accounts. Qackers interim results due around the 14th of Nov and divi close to 2p