Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[verulamium] 03/10/2007 12:21

momentos - I sold out of these after seeing how much Ungaro stuff was half price on the Debenham sale rails, and haven't regretted the decision. I know that it's Debenhams who take the hit, but it must affect next year's orders. The very people who buy Marchpole's "aspirational" stuff are the ones who'll be most affected by the credit crunch, so the UK and US may be problematic for a couple of years at least.

You may deride the oil sector, but there are oil/gas producers on prospective P/Es of less than 10 - I haven't got the exact figures to hand, but I think DGO and VPC would probably fit the bill. I call that value.

Marchpole have done a great job of diversifying out of the UK, and all seems to be going well, but I can't be the only one happy to sit on the sidelines until there are some numbers to confirm matters.

[marben100] 03/10/2007 12:08

momentos et al,

I know (only too well!) how frustrating it can be holding these. However, as has been the case for a long time, one big factor that's holding the share price back IMHO is fear of post-YSL performance. If the interims show this fear to be unfounded (as statements to date have been promising), I'll be amazed if the share price doesn't react accordingly.

Mind you, that wouldn't be the first time I've been amazed :0).

Only a few weeks to go now till the interims. Might get a run up in anticipation - that's why I decided to top up now.

Cheers,

Mark

[wbjunior] 03/10/2007 12:07

lol good to have you back momentos, missed your humour...................wbj

[dan de lion] 03/10/2007 11:31

As everybody knows, MPH are going to do better next year, so therefore we should be on an eps of at least 15 in anticipation that it will improve markedly next year, that means that the market is saying that MPH will only achieve an eps of 7.5p or less this year.

[marben100] 03/10/2007 11:30

Well, at these levels I just couldn't resist a little top-up.

Right. I'll be demanding a seat in the Directors' box at the next meet MPH are sponsoring :0)

[taffee] 03/10/2007 11:29

I have the nms at 5000 and mm sales can be shown as 'o' trades

[momentos] 03/10/2007 10:57

Not sure about that....

NMS is 3000 shares, these are generally marked as Ordinary or T trades. DOnt disagree with the MMs abilities to manipulate, sometimes all buys are clocked through Plus, sells here giving a distorted picture.

Lots of selling about though and unless distressed I would be surprised to see funds going at this point (old 22p) as they mostly bought in higher.

[taffee] 03/10/2007 10:48

nope its actually market makers.....they are allowed to disguise their sells legally but it has to be the nms

All manipulation.....

[momentos] 03/10/2007 10:16

Until those 5k drops stop happening we are going to stay at a depressed price. Wonder who it is offloading, Mrs Morris?!

2 Today, 5 yesterday, plenty of others through September. We have an overhang.

[wbjunior] 03/10/2007 09:26

Finance Director JH retired from Marchpole on Friday and still no announcement of his replacement, must be soon surely........................wbj

[marben100] 02/10/2007 23:25

Great stuff momentos! Delighted to see MPH seem to be moving Greenmark up-market, with Boclet's input, straightaway. Might be time for me to top up again...

[momentos] 02/10/2007 18:34

(or english via google)

[momentos] 02/10/2007 18:19

"I was afraid that death would not be long to come for me when I saw his sickening knee-high boots with subtle heels. Those boots are the absolute, undisputed must-have footwear for next season!!!"

Hmmm, who'll be making them then! Sound high margin stuff too...

[momentos] 02/10/2007 18:17

It should also be noted that profit warnings / problems should be visible to the company LONG in advance of them happening.

From what I can remember from YSL for example, the Autumn/Winter collection is finished off in January. Shown Feb/March, with orders coming in from then.

Orders are of course just orders. They are booked at the point/date of DELIVERY I believe, not at the earlier point. Thus the H1 results to be booked are substantially formed from a pipeline of business known about back in March/April plus any sellthrough.

As such if they were going to miss they would (and we should) have known about it by now. AGM statement:

"Sales of Emanuel Ungaro and Ungaro Homme in Europe, including the UK, are encouraging and in line with our expectations and demand for the new Emanuel Ungaro first line, designed by Franck Boclet, has exceeded our expectations."

Of course the only problem with this statement (and other bits of the statement) are what is not said - ie whats happening in the US!

[momentos] 02/10/2007 18:07

BTW the Franck BOclet (Marchpole employee) reviews in the summer were excellent, try dogging a few out.

[wbjunior] 02/10/2007 17:56

Welcome back dan, sorry the price is not better ...............................................wbj

[wbjunior] 02/10/2007 17:56

MARCHPOLE Hardman September update
HOLDINGS
There have been several
announcements from fashion
brand management company,
Marchpole Holdings, over the
last two months. Sales of
Marchpole's Ungaro Homme
and Emanuel Ungaro brands
continue to gain traction with
a new five year agreement
being entered into whereby
Colombian menswear
retailer, Textron SA, is to
distribute the brands through
its 28 retail stores in South
America. The first half of the
2007 financial year has
started in line with
expectations and the
company's forward order
books have been building as
anticipated. Sales of
Marchpole's JCC brand are
on the increase and royalty
income for JCC is more than
double that earned in the
prior year. The only negative
with regard to brand sales lies with Moda America with the
retail market in North
America remaining tough.
On the management side
John Harrison has resigned
from his position as Group
Finance Director. We
believe that Marchpole's
shares are considerably
undervalued – our last
valuation of the company's
shares was for more than
double the current share
price. Marchpole's
management seems to agree
and last month the company
purchased for cancellation
55,000 ordinary shares.

Marchpole MPH Price p. 163.0
Full List General Retailers Cap £m 44.2
Y/E March Sales £m Declared Pre- Adjusted Adjusted p/e ratio Divi p. Yield
tax Profit £m Profit £m eps p. %
2006A 38.4 4.5 4.0 9.5 17.2 3.5 2.1%
2007A 90.5 8.3 6.2 16.6 9.8 4.0 2.5%
2008E 71.1 7.8 7.8 19.8 8.2 4.0 2.5%
2009E 81.2 10.4 10.4 26.3 6.2 4.3 2.6%

Regards..........wbj

[dan de lion] 02/10/2007 16:55

Well, Hardmans September report puts MPH as "considerably under valued".

[eagle eye3] 02/10/2007 14:51

hardmans update was late enough to have winter sales included, MM stated at AGM expect to meet expectations, What else can be said

[momentos] 02/10/2007 14:23

Anyway, times can't be too tight as Mr Morris seems to be slinging some money onto the old horse racing (again)

Shame I didnt pick this up in time to have a bet!

[momentos] 02/10/2007 14:19

H1 just ended so visibility on whether they are likely to miss / hit expectations should be available now / soon.

The only trouble is that Marchpole do seem to shuffle the money a bit to reach their final figures so if they are short of expectations for H1 it may be hidden in the (audit not required) accounts rather than given in a profit warning.

That said, 1m (equiv nearly 4p eps) was taken out last year to aid the Michael Morris in-the-longterm-retirement fund and nothing near that amount is likely this year. And the JCC perfume revenues come onstream from 1/2008. Otherwise there is no reason to believe they should miss.

Even though I cant see Ungaro in Macys any more, I would expect this to be pushing on: they have Franck Boclet ex Smalto who had a top top reputation before he moved to Marchpole.