Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[pricemilne5] 29/6/2007 16:50

fozzie,
I will ditto that, i am so damn annoyed with myself.... hey ho, such is life!

[fozzie] 29/6/2007 16:41

well i have made my mind up today. I will NEVER hold a share on results day again. Paper loss today of £1600 on MPH. Still believe in the company and am sure it will rise way past recent highs over the next year or two but..... If i had sold a share the day before results and then bought back a day or two after i reckon i would be 10k richer over the last 3 years. It always happens, i am just annoyd with myself for not formulating this strategy sooner! Onwards and upwards wbj. Have a good weekend all. Foz.

[wbjunior] 29/6/2007 16:13

I would say this is the bottom at a guess and time to bounce back, have a good weekend everyone and enjoy the good things in life......................wbj

[lex1000] 29/6/2007 15:29

Posted buys 14:31 & 14:35 not showing either advfn or PLUS? Only 64 shares bought here advfn remainder 108,110 all sells.

[lex1000] 29/6/2007 15:26

MPH biggest faller on my monitor.sp almost back to where first bought.Game of snakes and ladders.

[wynmck] 29/6/2007 15:21

Wonder if we'll get a tip in the Sunday's-
this price will look a bargain Monday if we do..

[wbjunior] 29/6/2007 15:15

Did someone say tic up earlier...............lol
You can now buy the company for 11% less than yesterday morning, what a bargain ?

[corrientes] 29/6/2007 15:11

You're always going to get a cloudy picture when a company morphs, but I'll be very happy if much of the sales effort goes into the Far East where the money and good margins are now headed. That'll really make the company.

[lord buffett] 29/6/2007 15:05

I have some sympathy for the company in terms of what and how they state certain figures and the level of detail they choose to give (or not).

Last year and this/next year are challenging but very exciting times for Marchpole and it really comes down to whether you believe in the management's ability to grow the company into what could be quite a sizeable fashion/luxury goods empire within the next couple of years.

My money's now on Michael Morris and his colleagues to do this. (I also like the fact he personally has a lot to gain/lose on the outcome.)

[wbjunior] 29/6/2007 14:54

Guys have to agree with comments from both directions, smoke and mirrors come to mind. If you look at the cost of sales margin it has gone through the roof
50.2% Mar05 finals, 52.4% interims06, 58.57% Mar06 finals, 66.52% interims07 and finally 70.1% Mar07 finals. A return to 60% levels would have added 2.5 million to pre tax profits, I believe that a lot of the start up costs have been lumped in here to enable a return to average margins come the interims. I have contacted John Harris with a few points of contention regarding the figures and I await his reply..............................keep smiling short term set back the business is moving forward imo....................wbj

[lex1000] 29/6/2007 14:53

Lord Buffett,hopefully stops the rot! Tick up^

[dramatis] 29/6/2007 14:35

...i'm grateful also :-)

[lord buffett] 29/6/2007 14:31

Well I've just bought some, so my thanks to yesterday's and today's sellers, "without whom it wouldn't have been possible", as they say.

[petec] 29/6/2007 13:58

The point is that they failed to give any break down of figures between brands, so one has to suspect the worse.

As for the forward looking statement, in essence it says very little. What I would want are hard statements on profits. After all the current year is nearly 3 months old, they should have a good idea of what's going on. So something like 'sales on continuing brands are up/down x%', or just 'for the first three months overall trading met management expectations', or 'forward orders for autumn/winter are x% above/below last year' etc.

[smarm] 29/6/2007 13:56

Marben - there are also a lot of things that could derail MPH, like the 0.5% hike in interest rates that's coming our way.

Will luxury brands be immune to the squeeze? Maybe so, maybe not but with the market weak it doesn't seem a good time to be exposed to such risks.

I have no current position in MPH.

S

[marben100] 29/6/2007 13:47

and one would suspect that the profits for that quarter would be similar to each quarter in the 1st half, i.e. 2m.

Don't think that's a valid assumption at all. The business is highly seasonal, without knowing quarterly figures, it's impossible to judge what happened in each quarter and why.

That leaves little profit in the post YSL 4th quarter. There was nothing in the statement to suggest otherwise.

How could they say the following, unless they expected to make an increasing profit?

Together we look forward to harnessing the core strengths of the Company and to delivering enhanced shareholder value over the coming years.

[petec] 29/6/2007 13:37

Well I have to say that I've dumped all of mine (and I had over 60,000). My concerns were:
1) Fair value correction. This has already been discussed, and I agree with those that say it is a fudge.
2) The affect of losing YSL is far from clear. Profit at the interim was 4m, profit at the year end was just over 6m (taking off fudge), so that means 2m for the 2nd half. They had YSL for the first three months of the second half, and one would suspect that the profits for that quarter would be similar to each quarter in the 1st half, i.e. 2m. That leaves little profit in the post YSL 4th quarter. There was nothing in the statement to suggest otherwise.

[marben100] 29/6/2007 13:32

LB,

Agree completely. MM & team are not being given credit for a fantastic job done. Every reason to expect a bright future.

Cheers,

Mark

[meadow50] 29/6/2007 13:29

The accounts are acceptable history.The new Lee Cooper deal could work out very well and we've yet to hear the news of the menswear acquisition...could be good..or bad.The company is at an interesting crossroads imo and has weathered the YSL storm very well.I'll buy some more soon if they go to 150p..

[gorilla36] 29/6/2007 13:21

cosnova - while I understand your point re herding. I sold out today at -3p down rather than -12p saving myself £5,500. The ultimate aim of this business is to make, not lose money....and rule number one is preservation of capital. Good luck to all holders.

[marben100] 29/6/2007 13:14

Yortis,

Fair point, agreed. The £8.05m refers to pre-tax profit. I calculate the adjusted figure to be £6.19m, so 25% below that forecast. I'm still satisfied that we have value here but clearly the market remains nervous.

Cheers,

Mark

[lord buffett] 29/6/2007 13:08

It's always tricky trying to handle large one-off transitions, but I think MPH have done an extremely good job, all things considered.

People were [temporarily] worried at the last results about the huge cashflows taking place at the time, but that's all been straightened out now.

The large backlog of YSL at lower margins is now out of the way, clearing the way for higher margin Ungaro (etc) sales from now on.

I think the future's very bright for Marchpole as it turns from being a single UK-focussed licensee to a global multi-brand owner, with more brands being added to the stable.

Certainly no one could argue about the potential going forward!

[cosnova] 29/6/2007 13:04

Looks more like herding instints coming to bear