Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[lex1000] 27/6/2007 14:30

marben100,excellent post.

[marben100] 27/6/2007 14:14

Hi Polzeath,

I think my own strategy is longer term than yours. Personally - and this is entirely a personal experience - I have had much more success holding shares longer term (i.e. until "value is outed" or my view of the fundamentals is proven wrong) as opposed to trading short term. I don't much care what happens to the share price tomorrow (except to the extent indicated below). What I do care about is the results and outlook. If, after those, I'm satisfied that the shares are still cheap then I'll continue to hold. I have enough MPH, so will not be looking to top up (even if the price falls despite good results).

I WOULD top up if the results were good but the price fell so much that my holding was no longer large (seems unlikely). Similarly I'd start topslicing if the price exploded but the results were no better than I'm expecting (possible). I'd also consider selling if I didn't like the look of the results and the price hadn't fallen too far already (also possible).

My shares were bought 15 and 21 months ago at prices around 100p (taking account of the share consolidation). I don't mind holding for another couple of years, if necessary, before value is outed. The rate of return I've experienced so far will do nicely if it continues :0).

Best,

Mark

[lex1000] 27/6/2007 14:03

Just to put my head on the block before the event.Prediction: MPH up on results and remain up on grounds valuation and future growth.Increase % dividend a bonus if it happens.Others may say share price drifts lower and ends red tomorrow.I say cheap.Time will tell.Holding views and reading of charts my be biased and could be wrong. Therefore DYOR.aimvho.

[lex1000] 27/6/2007 13:10

wbj,it was until edited.Back up to 186p! lol

[wbjunior] 27/6/2007 13:09

lex thats better......................lol roll on tomorrow will be up early to digest before the open............................wbj

[lex1000] 27/6/2007 13:07

20k @ 186p on advfn appears to be a buy from early morning.That's my interpretation based of bid to offer prices?

[lex1000] 27/6/2007 11:16

Healthy to have debate and mix of views.Predictions exactly that. Up to holders and investors to decide upon entry,holding short medium long and exit strategies.Inevitably there is profit taking.MPH is trading near to resistance of mid point (between 175p and 200p)@ 187.5p and have psycological 200p up above.Most profit takers out at these levels.Would expect some profit taking @ 200p.

As I see it; glory of MPH is that share price has not raced away ahead of itself or in a straight line.MPH undervalued and is trading at a discount.Provides margin of safety,low risk and high reward.MPH share price has held firm during several market wobbles.Bought some at these levels,am holding and good value methinks.IF trading at sector average MPH=425p against current 186.5p. aimvho.dyor.

Link to latest newsletter from Hardman,June 2007,for those who have not seen it.

[slong] 27/6/2007 11:06

A carbon copy of CCT then ! I always get caught out trying to decide whether to take profits and hope the share price drops in the short term, or just hold long term for the eventual profit, taking divs along the way. I guarentee if I sell out for a profit tomorrow the share price wont drop and it will be a steady increase, if I hold on, we will see the decline ala CCT.

[polzeath] 27/6/2007 10:46

We'll find out tomorrow. I have done the minimum of research on MPH so serious holders pls disregard this post. But just to put my neck on the block before the event, I predict good results tomorrow and encouraging outlook going forward, YSL firmly put to bed, MMs mark up the SP, a few buys see MPH offer possibly even nudging close to 195-200p, then the sells kick in mid-morning, share price dips to end the day down, followed by gentle decline for a couple of months.

Just having a laugh ;-)

[dan de lion] 27/6/2007 10:23

MPH already have three months trading under their belt for this year, so they will have a very good idea where this year is going, a good strong statement of this will be a great help.

[jamesjoel] 27/6/2007 10:08

Plus Markets

Trade Date Trade Time Price Volume Type Consideration (p) Conditions
27/06/2007 09:05:41 185.15 2614 O 483982.10
27/06/2007 08:35:49 187.55 5000 O 937750.00
27/06/2007 08:34:45 187.25 10000 O 1872500.00
27/06/2007 08:28:32 187.25 1500 O 280875.00
27/06/2007 08:26:54 187.25 559 O 104672.75
27/06/2007 08:22:52 187.95 3500 O 657825.00
27/06/2007 08:15:40 186.50 3000 O 559500.00
27/06/2007 08:15:18 185.05 329 O 60881.45
27/06/2007 08:02:00 186.20 1000 O 186200.00
27/06/2007 08:00:23 186.00 10000 O 1860000.00

[sensei10] 27/6/2007 09:25

lex, I agree with your earlier post.

[rivaldo] 27/6/2007 08:52

Since you asked Polzeath (!), I have to say I think MPH bears no relation to FDP at all - pretty liquid as opposed to very illiquid, a very low P/E as opposed to a high P/E, completely different sectors and therefore ratings....

MPH have issued a plain and simple Notice of Results RNS, so we can be pretty sure that results will be roughly in line at worst and much better at best. Even if "merely" in line, with all the deals/acquisitions and assuming the outlook is bullish the P/E should be so low and the advance over last year so marked that further re-ratings should be in store.

That's not to say that the market on the day might not be down and thus the reaction muted. But all things being equal and results being as good as expected, there could be a lot more to come. I'm glad I held on here, and congrats also to wbj and others who did too.

[daverw] 27/6/2007 08:51

Good morning all, good luck to all holders tomorrow.
Looks like all the buys are on Plus this am.
Regards

[lex1000] 27/6/2007 08:31

Good morning wbj.
Hoping increasing "paper profits" will more than pay for your holiday wbj.regards lex ;o)

[fozzie] 27/6/2007 08:31

Hopefully we wont need any 'luck' wbj! Looking forward to some eye catching results and some very positive noises about the future of the company.

[wbjunior] 27/6/2007 08:28

Morning lex
Blue skies ahead I think, just in time for my holidays, good luck everyone for tomorrow................................wbj

[lex1000] 27/6/2007 08:23

Sensei10,MPH has not risen in a straight line.The chart is not overbought.Consolidation periods have meant that stale bulls in from the 37p days down to 13p have had plenty of opportunities to sell on way up.New and medium to long term investors holding.sp trading at a discount.Value here.aimvho.

[lex1000] 27/6/2007 08:07

Polzeath,no fear here.Know and understand what i've invested in.MPH is undervalued and due re-rating.Simple as that.Low risk,high reward is my view.I believe MPH to be worth all of 300p,however,will settle for 220p-250p short term.Investors share.Holding long term.aimvho.dyor.

[sensei10] 27/6/2007 08:03

polzeath - I haven't seen a rush to buy so far so cannot see a huge sell off following the results.

[polzeath] 27/6/2007 08:02

lex - medium term holders should have nothing to fear from a strong set of results (which is why I wasn't fazed by FDP dropping on good news!) All I'm saying is...the oddest things can happen when a few shorter term holders take profits...I had a good look at MPH and liked what I saw, just have a personal aversion for the sector and had no funds at the time anyway. Part of the problem is the MPH finals come at this time of year, when even good stocks bite the doldrums dust, look at BDI falling in the last weeks on a very confident AGM statement. Good luck you fashionistas ;-)

[lex1000] 27/6/2007 07:56

fwiw market can mark up MPH fast and furious .Obviously shares do go up and down.My take is that MPH is undervalued and re-ratings should follow.

[dan de lion] 27/6/2007 07:55

P/E of 20 would do me!

[lex1000] 27/6/2007 07:55

Polzeath,as you are aware I am a holder of MPH as well as o/t in which we both have an interest.

Believe that there is more potential value in MPH than o/t,have an understanding of how MPH is traded and an idea about values.

Like CCT which fell on Star Wars debacle MPH taken down due loss of YSL license i.e negative sentiment.

IF comparing the two CCT=£2.29 v MPH=£3.25 and if MPH trading on sector average=£4.25p.

MPH is a recovery growth,income and value share which like o/t will hold long term until re-rated to fairer value.Strong hold for me.If more cash would be buying more to hold.HOLDING.aimvho.dyor.

[polzeath] 27/6/2007 07:44

We'll have to leave that for the FDP board after this, but my interpretation is that it was much more to do with illiquidity of the stock. It only takes a few thousand shares (say, £10k worth) to be bought or sold and FDP often pops up or down by nearly 2%. Ask Riv for a second opinion? ;-)