Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[kneath] 01/6/2007 11:05

Lex1000 / Marben et al - Thanks for the useful info. After trading 15-16 months now it appears that my problem is not having a plan for each stock, but pretty much winging it. Result - in profit, but can see where I could have done so much better. Also, my portfolio is enormous - as some sort of hedging thing. Need a plan - and need to reduce no of holdings. Will do both! Thanks all! Staying with MPH tho!

[marben100] 01/6/2007 10:54

Thanks for your kind words Lex - completely agree with you further comments re gambling.

Worth reiterating: at current share price '07 consensus P/E forecast 9.0; '08 8.5 against luxury goods peers > 16 PLUS scope for '07 forecasts to be beaten and '08 upgrades. As you say, given good results, a doubling of the share price from here is quite plausible.

We're going to need to be up bright and early on 28th June because the results will be complicated, with the addition of the Moda and Greenmark businesses and the "last knockings" of YSL leading to a sales boost. Making previous year comparisons and future projections will be tricky. I hope MPH provides a good segmental analysis in the prelims and we don't have to wait for the annual report to get to the nitty-gritty.

Cheers,

Mark

[foxking] 01/6/2007 10:46

Hopefully the start of a gradual rise up to results

[lex1000] 01/6/2007 10:25

MPH retraced from highs of 190p-193p.Peeps buying the dips.As posted good value to be had here.Believe MPH potentially better prospects than my o/t growth and income share.Personally would be buyer and not seller down here.Initial target price 200p-250p.Results may confirm 300p-400p expectations are not unreasonable.aimvho.dyor

[lex1000] 01/6/2007 10:17

Marben100,your post and points well written and explained.

Triggered saying "Grass seems greener on the other side."

There are dangers in overtrading leading to poorer returns,risk of picking duds and missing out on better profits.

Feel that it is important to mention one other risk hinted at above that is of "Gambling." Investing and trading can be form of gambling and if not careful become "addictive." Possible to become addicted on adrenaline rush becoming emotional on fear & greed.This has lead to many a downful even of highly intellegent persons.

I cannot improve on your post.Very useful advice,concisely made and worthy of saving for reference.aimvho

[marben100] 01/6/2007 08:56

Kneath,

I think you will find that attempting to trade the "retracements" simply isn't worth the hassle and the broker commissions/spreads etc. When do you buy? When do you sell? Whilst TA tools can help, they are very much a black art and an imperfect science, in my experience - generating many false signals as well as correct ones.

I spent over a year trading short-term and whilst I made a small profit doing this (and my spread betting provider a larger one on the spreads), results seem much better by just picking stocks that appear undervalued and staying with them, either until you're proved wrong by the company's results/news, or until the market cottons on and the share price reflects the company's value.

It is always useful to have some spare firepower. In the case of RCG, for example (now a similar size holding to MPH for me), I used the recent "retracement" to top up at 99p, when the shares seemed crazily cheap to me.

What some people do (and I dabble in this myself) is to maintain a trading position in a stock, as well as a core holding. If you're experimenting, you might want to try this and compare the profits (over the long run) of the trading positions with the core holdings. That way you'll find out what works best for YOU, which is what counts.

A couple of further tips: whatever you do, it is vital to have a clear plan (preferably written down) and stick to it. You can only find what REALLY works over quite a long time period. I found that I was doing fantastically well in my shorter term trading for a few months and then gave back most of my profits when the market unexpectedly corrected. You need to invest and trade for several years before you really find out what works [I have been investing for over 20 years].

Cheers,

Mark

[sensei10] 01/6/2007 08:53

What's the PLUS market - excuse my ignorance?

[wbjunior] 01/6/2007 08:48

buys on plus market sensei10........................wbj

[foxking] 01/6/2007 08:48

Sensel

On the PLUS market

[sensei10] 01/6/2007 08:43

Good post lex. When did Dan De Lion buy because no trades on my screen.?

[lex1000] 01/6/2007 08:39

Dan de lion,see you fullfilling golden rule taking advantage to buy on weakness ;o)

[lex1000] 01/6/2007 08:34

Good morning Kneath,was referring to CCT as o/t in my post.Depending on entry price CCT risen between 176%-491% hence profit taking.RCG special circumstances,reasons negative sentiment which has bounced off 200 day SMA with avengence + news.The others do not follow.Know where you are coming from.Guess a case of looking stock by stock basis and deciding personal strategy.using CCT as an example it is (now) known that a number long termers sold when (their) target price was hit some selling 180p upwards.

Back to MPH what I am saying is that do not think share price has run ahead of itself.If we take 100p as average buying price 80% gain compared to 176%-491%.Do not pretend to fully understand the markets,have very basic knowledge of charts sufficient as a guide and to get by.Suffice to say stocks never go up or down in a straight line.Other intricites and technicals at work.On average takes 5 years to know thyself and markets.Case sometimes of no rights or wrongs and no harm in banking profits.Timing is everything of course.

Marchpole does require patience.Taken 2004 'till now to get back to 36p-37p old money.Inevitably some stale bulls have sold up to take original capital out.Invested know the company and the belief that stock is undervalued.Therefore cushion of safety.Rely on others to do the number crunching for me which produces £3-£4.To my mind MPH worth at least 250p and 40p old money gives you 200p.

MPH was way oversold on YSL and negative sentiment.No allowances for sell through of YSL and what has been built is an exciting almost new business.I'm impressed,positive sentiment and quite rightly re-ratings back to fair value.We're not there yet and value should out.Invest in stock continue produce year on year growth and income.Time to sell before companies go ex-growth.Way to early for MPH share price holding well for good reasons methinks.aimvho.dyor.

[dan de lion] 01/6/2007 08:09

Picked up another 5,000 @ £1.81.

[sensei10] 01/6/2007 07:59

Buy and hold is not always the best strategy. If the share falls below support levels then you could conisder selling. You can always buy back in if it turns around.

[kneath] 01/6/2007 07:56

Morning lex1000 : Only reason for my particular concern regarding this issue is that as a buy and holder (long-term) of such stocks as CCT, RCG, WNG, MNS etc I have seen retraces of some significance. I think also I need to look at what I consider to be long-term relative to the gains the stocks have made. i.e. with such significant gains in these maybe such retracements should be expected as 'part 0f the program. Only more experience will tell! Sorry o/t guys, no ramping, merely factual. If I had ramped these stocks in the last 3 months I would expect anyone to 'send the boys 'round' - as well as more medication!

[lex1000] 01/6/2007 07:41

Good morning everyone.

[lex1000] 31/5/2007 20:43

Kneath,you can always consider top slicing by 50% banking profits holding remaining 50%.Option of either buy back cheaper and or higher.o/t stock in which both have a shared interest had risen 176% to 491% depending on entry price.In 'hindsight' can see reasons for profit taking subsequent fall in shareprice combined with technical gap to fill on chart & double bottom.Plus aspect of questionable article in the SUN.Upside 44% approx to broker target price.

Marchpole think is much different to o/t.Positive sentiment.As yet to rise to fair value,more re-ratings to follow.So share price has not run ahead of itself trading imo at a discount to true value.Slipped back from intra highs 190p-193p.

As yet no pre-results rise.May actually see MPH rising on results day even if we see rise.There are those who feel target of £3 to £4 reflects true value.I beleive a few surprises are in store short term and going forward and patience will be well rewarded.

MPH is trading at a discount to its peers.It is my opinion that MPH worth at least 50p old money which translates to 250p.Need to regain mid point of 187.5p on way to test 200p.

Decided on buy and hold strategy and therefore will not be selling MPH anytime soon.Great opportunity to buy current dips.Good Luck.aimvho.dyor.

[jason8466] 31/5/2007 14:38

I have to agree with lex.

[lex1000] 31/5/2007 11:01

Kneath,all depends on personal investment style,horizons and how you are with timing.What shares trade at and are truly worth two different things.Profit taking and short term fluctuations all part of the game.Irrespective,good shares,strong companies can & do go on to record higher highs.fwiw happen to think MPH undervalued,year on year growth & income potential and scope surprises to the upside.MPH has transformed itself as a company.Waiting for numbers for peeps to get their teeth into.Plenty of Funds money in MPH.Uptrend intact.Bullish and long term hold.aimvho.dyor.



free stock charts from www.advfn.com

[sensei10] 31/5/2007 09:47

The smart money sells into thr pre-results rise in share price Kneath. Take a look at CEY. If people stopped falling in love with their stocks they would have sold between 47 and 50p before the latest RNS.

IMO this will rise strongly leading up to the results which I think will be very good.

[kneath] 31/5/2007 09:34

Guys any advice? I'm sick of being in stocks which produce great results and then drop 5-7% on results day. I've heard the 'buy on rumour, sell on the news' thing, but is this what many experienced investors do? You can bet if I did it, the price would soar! Any advice? TIA

[jamesjoel] 31/5/2007 09:19

RNS Number:4969X
Marchpole Holdings PLC
31 May 2007



Marchpole Holdings plc

Notification of Results



Marchpole Holdings plc will announce its preliminary results for the 12 months
ended 31 March 2007 on Thursday 28th June 2007.


- ends -


Enquiries:


David Rydell/Emma Kent/Amy Rajendran
Bell Pottinger Corporate & Financial 0207 861 3232

[foxking] 30/5/2007 22:21

WBJ-Thanks

[jason8466] 30/5/2007 18:18

Thankyou Marben.