Mercia Asset Management Share Discussion Threads

[turbocharge] 04/11/2019 15:12

My hunch is that the share price has some way to go yet, possibly into the mid 30's in the short term. Will not not hazard to predict the medium/long term prospect - will leave that to the more research-savvy folk on here.

[chimers] 04/11/2019 11:16

Wouldnt this make a very tasty buyout for Draper Esprit?

[chimers] 04/11/2019 11:13

Another day of Horse Trading.
I wonder when they will see fit to tell us what's going on?
It's good to get this out of the way now though.
Results due Dec? could really set this on fire along with the subsequent write ups.

[metis20] 04/11/2019 07:18

Large off books trades Nov 1 -

[brad_k] 03/11/2019 09:32

There were 11 sells of > 1.6m shares on Friday, plus a 17.5m trade at mid price at midday, approximately 60m shares in total. I would assume most of this is institutional trading (is that unreasonable?), so the positive I would take from that is there is institutional interest in taking MERC shares at these levels.
Beyond that we don't know very much ... do Invesco intend to keep selling? are the new IIs interested in MERC as an investment or just as a short term trading gain?
The one thing we do know is that Link Fund need to offload their 60m over the next three months, so let's hope they made some progress towards that on Friday and that they continue next week.

[chimers] 02/11/2019 21:14

If Merc did buy say 30m shares would they cancel them?

[p1nkfish] 02/11/2019 21:07

In theory yes & a decent summary.
Suppression due to forced sellers.

[chimers] 02/11/2019 20:25

So Invesco now own exactly 59,113,333 shares = to 19.48% as of 31/10/2019
As per RNS of 1/11/2019

Any shares sold on the 1st Nov are not included in this position which is dated as the 31st of the 10th.

We may or may not get more RNS re Invesco correct?

Meantime, the Link Fund (woodford) stated it holds 19.99% (60,630,350 shares) on the 15th of Oct and so far that position has not changed in as much as there has been no further RNS from them correct?

On Fri I have it as 46,498,603 shares were sold but this figure will likely not be accurate but will be in the ballpark.

Is it expected that both entities will be selling the lot or will Invesco perhaps keep some ? or is that an unknown?

Overall the way I see it is that out of a combined 107'128'953 between the pair of them perhaps about 67m remain?

At the rate they sold them on Fri and with only about 4m on the buy side by retail
it seems clear that someone picked up about 40m-46m on Fri but have yet to RNS it yes?

So the remaining 67m could be snapped up just as quickly yes?

In other words this is just maneuvers by forced sellers and the reason the price did not tank on Fri.

If thats roughly the case then once all done and dusted the shares should bounce right up to previous highs at least?

[metis20] 02/11/2019 13:02

See post 317 and 320 - c40mn changed hands around noon yesterday - that is c 12% of the shares in issue. Interesting to see who sold and who bought.

See post 324

"Once the winding up of the Fund begins on 17 January 2020, the Fund will move to an orderly realisation of its assets."

Does this mean that shares held in LFEIF may not be sold until 17 January 2020 at the earliest?

(20% of MERC were transferred to Link on 15th October.)

Edit - I have emailed Link to ask if equity disposal from the LFEIF is permitted in the 3 months leading up to 17 January 2020 - the starting date for the winding up of the LFEIF.

(I used the email address at the end of the question and answer file - )

[kenmitch] 02/11/2019 12:54

Simon Thompson has an excellent record, albeit it with the occasional disaster like not spotting fake Chinese Comapnies Naibu and Camkids. He does tend to focus heavily on balance sheets and hence can miss other obvious warning signs, like clear evidence that Naibu’s shops didn’t even exist! But his overall record with bargain priced shares is superb.

Institutions/other funds not buying could be because they don’t know much if anything about MERC. Also as Woodford found to his cost,buying big stakes in AIM shares and unquoted shares can be a BIG problem when needing/wanting to sell. As for Invesco .....that’s where Woodford made his name and key Manager there Barnett has also done badly and so investors are wanting out of his funds too.

Best to go by what MERC themselves say and their results and other updates than wonder why other big investors are not buying. Their last results look impressive and Simon Thompson could well be right in thinking the shares a steal at 23p.

AND perhaps look out for Simon Thompson updates. He is a prolific writer and though many Investors Chronicle tips are bytheir young and inexperienced writers, Simon Thompson is a class act and I subscribe to Investors Chronicle online mainly for his input.

fwiw.....I bought some as soon as reading his article.

[chimers] 02/11/2019 12:14

If as Simon Thompson says this is a screaming buy and it is dripping in cash why don't other instis buy these large stakes that are being sold?

Are they all to dim? or is there another reason?

Whi is Invesco dumping?

Woodford's stake has to be sold there is no choice in the matter for them but why Invesco?

Also, why does another insti not buy Woodford's old stake?
Was everything he had bought that bad?

Surely instis would be cherry-picking the good stuff out of his pile of dross?
Or was there no good stuff in amongst it all?


Simon Thompson made it 100% clear that this company is the strongest and best buy you could possibly ever find perhaps in a lifetime.
He said all this and a lot more in the podcast.
So why don't other instis agree with him and grab these large packets of shares.

He suggests the company itself would be mad not to buy them all up with their cash pile and cancel them this boosting the value of the remaining shares.
But it does not look likely as there has been no RNS.

Overall Simon Thompson has stated this is quite possibly the best opportunity at these prices in existence in the history of mankind he more or less implies this to the excitable puppy Hughman.

So is Thompson a complete cretin or is it the instis and the company directors?

[metis20] 02/11/2019 09:52

So equity in WEIF was transferred to LFEIF around 15 October 2019.

A letter dated October 15 was sent to shareholders re the winding up of LFEIF.



An extract -

"Once the winding up of the Fund begins on 17 January 2020, the Fund will move to an orderly realisation of its assets."

Does this mean that shares held in LFEIF may not be sold until 17 January 2020 at the earliest?

Presumably not because for example 6.96% of BUR were transferred to Link on 15th October and the LFEIF holding reduced to 4.96% of BUR on 22nd October -

[metis20] 02/11/2019 08:14

thanks rambutan2

For the MERC shares that were in WEIF for eg see "long reports - final" via the link



MERC appears on p30

That gives the end of 2017 holding (60,090,350) - almost the same as the number transferred to Link recently (60,630,350)

[wan] 02/11/2019 05:45

From my post 265 when Invesco reduced from 29.50% to 28.98%.

"It is perhaps notable that if Mercia did repurchase (cancel) the ex WIM shares, that that would take Invesco over 30% and trigger a mandatory offer for Mercia. By my calculations, that reduction (by Invesco) is still not enough for Merc to use their full authority (to repurchase circa 30m shares), but Invesco's reduction may 'accommodate' a decent slug to be purchased, which would still send a message to the market and as Brad_K asks above; the situation may present an opportunity that's a good result for both management and investors."
(END)

The maximum amount of shares that Mercia could currently repurchase is 10% i.e. just over 30m shares (according to special resolution 8 in the AGM notice), which would be around half of the Woodford holding.

So, it now remains to be seen if Mercia will step into the market and give additional support to the fact that there is indeed a substantial disconnect between the market pricing of Mercia’s equity and the substantial intrinsic value in Mercia’s asset management business, directly held investment portfolio and cash holdings.

[rambutan2] 01/11/2019 20:35

None were in WPCT. They were all in WEIF and Link has given the job of shifting them. Looks like Invesco decided to jump in ahead of the imminent dump, presumably fearing that they'd struggle to get rid of any afterwards.

[metis20] 01/11/2019 20:20

60m were moved to Link on 15 October. Were they all in the Patient Capital Trust?

Invesco sold about 30m between 22 and 31 October and still have about 60m.

37.8m changed hands at noon today. Interesting to see where those went.

Today's volume was c54m.

[rambutan2] 01/11/2019 20:00

Seller was Invesco...

[turbocharge] 01/11/2019 12:55

No problems selling @ 27p currently...

[brad_k] 01/11/2019 12:49

That looks like 40m or so shares "sold" around 12:30 so hopefully Link Fund Solutions offloading to some new holders. I suppose it could be Invesco offloading a chunk which would be rather less positive. All should be revealed by early next week if not before.

[p1nkfish] 01/11/2019 12:28

Good luck everyone. Will be glad to see this not disappoint and management prove their wrth to achieve their approx 50p options.

[weatherman] 01/11/2019 11:00

When I bought some more yesterday, I was offered less than the stated mid price - so it would look like a sell. Due to stock overhang.

[turbocharge] 01/11/2019 10:57

ADFN again showing most of the buys as sells....

[wan] 31/10/2019 13:57

As discussed previously, it would be nice to see Mercia's management step into the market with a purchase, which would send a strong signal (the authority is in place).