Melrose Industries Share Discussion Threads

[darrin1471] 15/9/2022 13:27

A lot of volume appears as trades after 16:30
e.g. Monday 12/09
9m shares traded up to 16:30
44m shares traded after 16:30

Is that significant ?

[sliotar] 15/9/2022 12:43

The spin-off would probably mean both new companies out of FTSE 100. That’s another negative to come as the the major index funds will no longer contain them - which has bee a plus for MRO ( although perhaps not much longer if their market capitalisation keeps going south at the current rate.

[roguetraderuk] 15/9/2022 12:37

the highest volumer day of the year was 2 days after the results and shares traded between 124-127. so that area will be a level of resistance for the shares. lossely the lower end of that range was on a central channel line, which sits between an upper and lower channel line. currently this line is at about 126 and the lower line comes in a little under a pound. the upper channel goes back to 2012. however consolidations and issues always muddy waters if running trendlines going back before them. so id look to large volume days to highlight where the shares will find support or resistance in this case.

[roguetraderuk] 15/9/2022 12:29

a quick search

[darrin1471] 15/9/2022 12:27

Trading volume has been high since the half year report reference to the split.
Split is a year away and may lead to a change in the profile of stockholders.
Volumes were high during the share buyback but historically volumes of the last week are high.

[roguetraderuk] 15/9/2022 12:26

ive not looked at the most recent results in detail but i think at the end of 2021 of 5bn orders for auto, a third of this was ev and of higher margin than for ice. if you include hybrid it went to 50%.

[essentialinvestor] 15/9/2022 12:01

Does their auto side offering have as strong a share in the ev segment as in ice?.


I've read about their eDrive product, but have no data on market share etc.

[gettingrichslow] 15/9/2022 11:23

“A bit of a Horlicks” is an understatement! Glad I’ve only got a relatively small investment here now (<£80k) compared to what I had pre-COVID. I guess as soon as Minerve bought in I should have realised that was a massive Sell signal!

[sliotar] 14/9/2022 12:05

Management seems to have made a bit of a Horlicks of their planned spin off announcement. Time for a clawback on their £40 mil bonuses?

[essentialinvestor] 09/9/2022 14:59

rogue, it was around 1.18 when I looked a bit after the open, but could not bring myself to buy - that might be a good sign for holders!.

[essentialinvestor] 09/9/2022 13:31

rogue, thanks for the update, not tempted
back atm myself.

[deutsch4] 09/9/2022 13:21

Who will buy a new car next year? - Now parts thats another thing. Flat batteries on the way?

[roguetraderuk] 09/9/2022 08:04

EI, bought some here at 121

[roguetraderuk] 08/9/2022 21:27

america firmer overnight so pushes things higher but maybe a few bad write ups get read overnight and we get a poor start and gap lower. id be interested to pick some up again towards 120. gap at 116 a bridge too far for now. need mkts to fall to help drag it down to there.

[essentialinvestor] 08/9/2022 21:09

rogue, let me know if you buy a few thanks.

[roguetraderuk] 08/9/2022 21:03

auto sector is coming off its knees and its still may be a long road back. but the restructuring has been completed and melrose quite rightly wanted as much as they could. it seems too much. but its quite poss a bid will come for this auto sector on the other side of the float. the pound isnt going to significantly increase in value over the near term so the opportunity will still be there and it will be for a sector thats 6 months or more into its recovery. dont forget there will be a point when the sector is firing on all cylinders and valuations will be at their highest. at that point however its hard to find anyone other than softbank or the saudis to buy your assets. it hink given 3 years or so, the auto stub should see a marked increase in profits and so valuation.

[essentialinvestor] 08/9/2022 18:29

That remains to be seen, often trade or sales to PE are underpriced,
it depends on how the market values it. And it's also more than possible an acceptable offer arrives beforehand.

In another sector take Pennon, who's sale of Virdor to private equity may
have cost shareholders at least £2 BN in lost value, very probably more.

[sliotar] 08/9/2022 18:24

Mark to market and move on leaving others to bear the loss and having pocketed £40 million each at the time of the GKN acquisition. Nice work if you can get it,

[essentialinvestor] 08/9/2022 18:04

I don't understand the ...bottled it..comment. If offers are not forthcoming
at a level they find acceptable then either it's accept a lower price, continue to run the division or spin it out.
As their model does not involve holding assets longer term then ...

[roguetraderuk] 08/9/2022 17:09

the auto side has been restructured and its ready to go. profits in that division are going to see rapid improvement as the auto mkt recovers. yes its unfortunate they havent been able to find a buyer. i expect they wanted too much. better this than a cheap sale as in the case of biffa say. at least this way shareholders can stick around and reap the benefits as the bottomline of the auto business improves off the covid and supply chain lows. a pe takeout would bring forward some of those gains, but certainly not as much as should come over the next few years as the auto mkt recovers. afterall thats what pe takeouts are about. paying some premium for a business but leaving enough on the table for the buyer to make a handsome profit too.

[sliotar] 08/9/2022 16:57

The economic difference is you get an acquisition premium on a sale; you’re lucky to get a normal market multiple on. Spin off. Face facts they’ve bottled it and we’re left with losses.

[medieval blacksmith] 08/9/2022 16:51

"Perhaps the market is disappointed that this won't materialise with a listing of the motor division, which is in any case most likely to be in a far healthier state than what it was when inherited."

Well that depends on what you mean by 'healthy'. There is a huge difference between short-term efficient spreadsheets showing profit and long-term intangible wealth building! ;)

[essentialinvestor] 08/9/2022 16:25

Ah, I remember Wassall - they eventually sold the lot to private equity
before starting again with MRO. Thanks for the view.

[manouk2] 08/9/2022 16:16

I take rather a different view to today's posters. We were told a long while ago that MRO would be looking to dispose of the automotive and aviation divisions of the old GKN in accordance with their strategy of buy, improve and sell.
The current investment environment is hardly conducive to securing a trade sale of the automotive division--a world wide recession looming, and the difficulties experienced by the motor industry in securing the semi-conductors needed, and logistical issues over supplies of parts, leading to reduced automotive sales worldwide. But in the past MRO has secured good prices from their trade sales of former subsidiaries, and returned cash proceeds to shareholders. Perhaps the market is disappointed that this won't materialise with a listing of the motor division, which is in any case most likely to be in a far healthier state than what it was when inherited.

I have been a long term fan of this management team whom I first came across at Wassall nearly 30 years ago. They have performed in spades, and deserve the wealth they have created for themselves and other shareholders. We just need patience and a fairer economic wind to secure the outcomes we all want.