Melrose Industries Share Discussion Threads

[meanwhile] 13/3/2020 10:56

Yertiz,

Thanks for your concern regarding my wallet. I have heard nothing of Minerve2 but of course he held other than MRO.
I am almost out of MRO now, just kept a few, having sold well off the top but still in good profit. Don't forget that long term holders who took up the 12 for 1 Rights Issue to buy Nortek in 2016 got their new shares at 95p.

[meanwhile] 13/3/2020 10:40

Thank The Lord we have left the EU.

Italy & Spain heading rapidly for bankruptcy and who knows else to follow, maybe the whole lot.
At least we won't go down with it, although of course, we may go down on our own.

Utter turmoil may result. The entire founding principles, like free movement, of the EU will be questioned and challenged, together with all the ridiculous terms and regulation of goods.
They may ask themselves, for example, why they regulate the shape and colour of an imported banana but have overlooked the Chinese tourist coming to the EU after just having a meal of hog-nosed bat's wing soup for his breakfast before flying here.

[jackdaw4243] 13/3/2020 09:14

If you have a portfolio that has Shell, BT, Barc, Costain, Bur, NMC and MRO there is not much to talk about, not to mention RR and Lloyds.

[gettingrichslow] 13/3/2020 00:06

All, these are truly extraordinary times and considering the price movements I’m amazed there hasn’t been more discussion on here. I too think MRO has a brilliant management team but as I said a couple of weeks ago that’s not enough when your end markets are getting crushed. There is no sign of an end to that as far as I can see. As Yertiz points out, we’ve not heard from a lot of regular posters and that concerns me because I hope they haven’t taken unsustainable losses in these current markets. B+, Losos and others - are you out there?

[essentialinvestor] 12/3/2020 19:29

If you want to look at potential downsides for MRO...their buy, build/improve and sell models, depends on someone buying. A bear market compresses multiples, as we've seen today!. There is also the net debt, which remains arguably pretty chunky.
Finally, the sectors MRO operates in are cyclical, all be it with longer
secular growth drivers.

Plus points are a first class management team and a model that has operated through multiple economic and market cycles. Including the 08/9 financial crisis, All imv Only.

[yertiz] 12/3/2020 18:33

I said some weeks ago the market was 'toppy'. Not a scientific view I admit but true all the same. Some ridiculed my comment, and some thought having stop losses in place was for mug punters. Actually, thinking about it, it was the same 'big shot' who commented, now very conspicuous by his very absence... Like you I sold out before the big falls, preserving my sanity and profits.
Too soon to buy back yet, but there will come a point where the bottom is reached and sense returns.

[tournesol] 12/3/2020 17:19

I'm sorry but I can't agree that it's all madness.

Warren Buffett said that his preferred indicator of the market being over/under priced is the ratio of the total market cap for all listed US companies compared against the total GDP. (I think this can be compared with the idea of the P/E ratio for individual companies.) Over the long term - and in Buffett's thought process, long term means decades long - the average value of this Buffett indicator tends towards a value of 1. When the market gets overheated the value can rise to 1.35 and above. before the current crash started, it had reached 1.47.

So that means the market - or at least the US market - was looking very over-valued. That would not, of itself, trigger a crash, over-valuation can persist for years. But it is clearly an unstable situation, an accident waiting to happen.

And hey presto we have two accidents happening at the same time. We have the Covid-19 and we have the oil price crash. Those two co-incident events had an impact on the already unstable market and started a landslide. And once that starts it gets a momentum all of its own. It won't stop until the Buffett indicator hits the bottom of its historic range.

Before dismissing this as baloney, take a look at the historic chart of the Buffett Indicator. It predicted the crash of 2000-2001, the crash of 2008 and the current crash. That's a hat-trick of successful predictions. I find that pretty convincing. It helped me to exit the market a few weeks ago which was fortunate.

I will make it part of my investing toolkit in future.

[yertiz] 12/3/2020 16:39

A buying opportunity? This market has reverted to madness, fear driven and nonsensical. I do hope Meanwhile has escaped with his wallet looking a little tattered and worn and Minerve has kept away from the razor blades! Might, just might take a little dabble at this ridiculous level....

[gettingrichslow] 10/3/2020 19:25

Essential, I had more shares than Charlotte T! Do I need to do an RNS??

[essentialinvestor] 10/3/2020 16:35

So directors bought again, under £1.70 looks a decent longer term price imv.

[yertiz] 10/3/2020 16:29

I've done very well in 20 years or so of self investing in ISAs, but at this point in time I'm transferring out all my cash and closing all my holdings in ISAs and buying another property. Either that or buying lumps of gold seems the only way forward at present!

[gettingrichslow] 10/3/2020 16:15

Yertiz, I’m in exactly the same boat. Trouble is I’m now at risk of a bank defaulting because I’ve got more than the FSCS limit in various different ISAs!

[yertiz] 10/3/2020 15:58

Cash is king in these times. As expected, there was a market bounce today in response to yesterday's massacre, but nervousness is returning, FTSE dropping, Dow uncertain. No end in sight to this madness IMHO. Seems the Saudis, Russians, Chinese and Covid-19 have conspired to destroy Western wealth. I am almost totally out of stocks 'n shares, sitting on my pile of cash wondering if ever there is a time to get back into the market or whether I should just invest in bricks and mortar...preferably not on a flood plain.

[gettingrichslow] 09/3/2020 23:16

Meanwhile, we’ll if it’s making you worry then you’ve done the right thing. It’s a big decision for you, I’m guessing, because you’ve said before you’ve got a lot of your eggs in this basket. I must admit, I’ve got lucky here because I bailed out at between 203p and 214p when I decided this virus panic is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. I also sold off most of my other biggest holdings last week, taking a big hit versus the peak, but protecting against any further collapses.
It really is a mad situation, where as you say, one minute a guy is selling exotic meats in a market in Wuhan, the next we’re bailing out of Melrose!
Best wishes,
Getting

[meanwhile] 09/3/2020 12:16

getting,

For once, my friend, you make a lot of sense.
I think the longer term effects of this could be very substantial for companies with activities reliant on increasing globalisation, a trend which will now be seriously questioned, however severe the eventual outcome of this crisis.
In addition, the disposals we were all waiting for to boost the shares now look a long way off.

Personally, I'm almost completely out of MRO now; I've just kept a few for purely sentimental reasons. I've experienced at least 2, it might be 3, previous severe market falls and, recalling these, I just don't want the worry associated with another one. I find them very depressing, which I admit now is a particular weakness of mine.
So I'd much rather be out and without a care whether they go up or down. It's a good feeling.

brexitplus's £3 by Christmas, which looked just round the corner, also now looks a long distance away.

[blue square] 08/3/2020 15:47

glad to see this share fall hopefully it goes below 1.50

[aquaesulis01] 07/3/2020 17:22

4.5 billion airline passengers per annum last year and good to hear it sounds like you'll be doing your bit to maintain the volume. Look, two things will happen over the next month; either the number of cases will start to decline or it will spread everywhere and people will just have to get on with their lives and the market will rebound as it always has in the past. So agree short term is likely to be volatile but as I said mid to long term things will pick up.

[gettingrichslow] 07/3/2020 16:54

Acquae, well I’m actually flying to Gran Canaria in a few weeks, then Malaga in August, then Valencia in the Autumn. Business trips to Frankfurt and Austin, Texas too. But it’s not what I’m doing that matters, it’s what the other 7.6 billion people are doing, and it doesn’t look great, and it’s already translating into aircraft orders...

Reuter’s: European planemaker Airbus (AIR.PA) failed to win any new aircraft orders in February, it said on Thursday, providing further evidence of disruption across aviation industries from the global coronavirus outbreak.
Airbus also said it had no received no cancellations during the month and delivered 55 aircraft, bringing its total for the year so far to 86, fractionally below the same period of 2019.
It is the second time in as many months that a leading manufacturer has failed to generate sales in a calendar month after Boeing drew a blank in January for the first time in decades.

On your comment about me having no financial interest, you couldn’t be more wrong - I have huge respect for the Melrose management team and will be piling back into MRO as soon as the outlook improves because I’m convinced they will turn GKN around and add massive value. It’s just very unfortunate that the current situation in their main markets is dire - not their fault obviously!

[jackdaw4243] 07/3/2020 16:26

Meanwhile

:-)

Not a meat dealer I am sure the real cause is "Powdered Rhino Horn and Ivory ornaments".

[aquaesulis01] 07/3/2020 16:25

Well good luck to then getting, at least you can now chill and relax at home as you obviously have no plans to travel away on holiday over the next 12 months which will also probably leave you with plenty of time on your hands to haunt a BB where you no longer have any financial interest.

[gettingrichslow] 07/3/2020 14:40

Aquae, how could you possibly know it is only a short term demand decline? Do you know for sure that this is all going to blow over quickly? There is no way of telling - therefore there must be a risk of it having a longer lasting effect. And that is what the market is already starting to price in here. My personal view is that the risks here are substantial until there is a clear decline in cases. Hence my full exit after many years of holding.

[aquaesulis01] 07/3/2020 13:27

gettingrichslow, and you are completely wrong to relate future mid to long term new aircraft build and demand with short term demand decline in current aircraft travel.