Melrose Industries Share Discussion Threads

[mayers] 16/3/2018 15:34

MEANWHILE

Delighted and relieved that you seem to be in good spirits (2866). I can warm to your system, Existentialist I suppose. Heartened also to hear of such prompt and comprehensive GP service lol. Good view of your wallet: are those a few greenbacks I see? I wonder what they can mean. Keep up the good work.

gettingrichslow

I think you may have a point last night about the name slip. Whilst grs requires more mental effort than the more usual grq, there may also have been an unconscious, or at least preconscious awareness of Melrose's short time-frame that inclined to grq. Apologies for the error and thanks for your generosity in acknowledging different opinions.

[meanwhile] 16/3/2018 15:27

Come on, Minerve. Numbers please.

[meanwhile] 16/3/2018 15:09

It must all be in the numbers. Give me numbers, not words, like 'Hope', 'aspiration'.
457 current bid price (based on MRO price), 425 current GKN price.
Is this telling us the bid is unlikely to go ahead?

[bukko] 16/3/2018 12:43

Agreed Minerve

[bukko] 16/3/2018 12:40

Re the Dana deal and alternatives:

Dana offered a very fair price,including delivery of project Boost, an EV to EBITDA Ratio of 7.5. That is higher than the Ratio for component giants Valeo or Continental.

Dana and GKN are a perfect fit and would be a proper ENGINEERING POWERHOUSE. Far better than putting GKN with a sheet metal stamping and forming outfit and sundry other commodity manufacturers.

Driveline has no UK buyers so would be sold to a foreign buyer by MRO anyway.

Someone mentioned a UK flotation (ha ha!). An expensive business (amigo bonus sapping)and not worth doing. There are no margin miracles in the business.

[bukko] 16/3/2018 11:41

Don't worry lads perhaps the gambling end of the so called hedge fund spectrum will push you over the line. The parasites that have no interest in either company and an even shorter time horizon than the amigos. Hard to see why they should be allowed to vote on the long term future of either company. According to one paper they make their money in assisting takeovers and may hold 20% of GKN shares.

[grahamburn] 16/3/2018 11:36

Two snippets (extracts) from The Times which don't need any further comment.

News article about Rolls Royce's view the current battle - first paragraph only:

The battle for GKN intensified yesterday after Rolls-Royce became the latest company to intervene when it raised no objections to a takeover by Melrose. Rolls-Royce, the aerospace company, told The Times that GKN was a “valued partner”, but there was “no reason to believe our relationship would change in the event of a change of ownership”.

Second
Another barbed comment on GKN's board from the Business Commentary column (just the final two paragraphs):

No question Airbus’s intervention was broadly helpful to Ms Stevens. Yet, think about it for a bit. GKN is a publicly quoted company, always at the risk of takeover, from Melrose or anyone else. Is Airbus saying it won’t buy wing components from GKN if its ownership changes? And why would Melrose upset relations with GKN’s biggest customer? If it succeeds with its bid, won’t it ensure that the home it eventually finds for the aerospace business is approved by Airbus? Anything else would destroy value.

Besides, Ms Stevens is proving herself far more short-termist than Melrose with her deal to flog the automotive business to America’s Dana — a move that will leave the standalone aerospace business more vulnerable to takeover. GKN shares fell 2 per cent to 430.2p: a discount to Melrose’s 456p bid. Nothing, then, to get too aerated about.

[gettingrichslow] 16/3/2018 11:13

Jupiter have just said they will vote against the deal. MRO up, GKN down in the minutes since...GKN has now drifted lower in last 5 days, MRO drifting higher...

[semper vigilans] 16/3/2018 10:51

Agree Sogoesit.
There won’t be much glee in ‘I told you so’ in a year’s time.
I hope the MPs, union leaders and V.Cable especially are reminded of what they campaigned for if this deal falls over.

[sogoesit] 16/3/2018 10:42

Agreed, am "hoping" (Oops that pipe dream idea again ;-) ) for the GKN bid to fail.
I don't think MRO management are cut out for this political stuff... nor should they be.
Leave GKN to asset strip itself.

[meanwhile] 16/3/2018 10:32

If there were to be another U.S. target, it most likely would be bought in cash, so another Rights Issue.
That's where the money's made, and it goes to MRO shareholders.

[yertiz] 16/3/2018 10:15

How about Dana as another target? Underperforming, ripe for improvement, poor management etc etc ad infinitum.

[meanwhile] 16/3/2018 10:14

Let's hope so gettingrich. You would clearly get on well with my doctor.

Yes, I agree that one positive may be the raised profile of MRO, but that may not necessarily good in all respects.

[gettingrichslow] 16/3/2018 10:05

Meanwhile, those predictions are similar to what I'm thinking. In terms of MRO share price, I think the best outcome might now be one where the GKN bid 'fails' and they go for a different but similar size 'big fish'. The market will have now properly woken up to the scale of ambition of MRO and will to some extent price that in before any new bid in (dare I say it) 'expectation/hope' that one manifests. All sale proceeds from Nortek then come to MRO too. It is the GKN share price that is most at risk of sinking I reckon.

[meanwhile] 16/3/2018 09:47

Mayers,
I've taken the advice in your excellent post last night, I saw my GP first thing this morning. He suggests hanging on to MRO, thinks there's little downside and predicting, by year end, 260p if they get GKN, 280p if they don't and 300+ if they fail at GKN and find a better target.

In the current mood of psychodynamic thinking, here is my own system.
- develop and live by your own model of anarchy.
- throw away the 'Textbook of Life'.
- don't live by others advice, listen to it, get your own data and make your own
decision. Especially avoid 'Establishment advice'
- find a good basket and put all your eggs in it.

[gettingrichslow] 15/3/2018 23:15

Mayers, I wasn't referring to the 'grahamburn' error, I was referring to you calling me 'getrichquick' earlier this evening, which may have been a Freudian slip on your part, but it's unimportant. Re: your 2280 post I agree with much of that but I think Melrose would improve the business and that's good for shareholders, the staff, UK PLC and others. You obviously don't agree which is fine.

[mayers] 15/3/2018 22:27

gettingrichslow

It is about encouraging genuine investment that will benefit everyone not just the get rich however slow and avoiding harsh outcomes for others (see 2280) Thanks.
Yes,I did erroneously combine your name with grahamburn and I did apologise. I have searched myself in terms of a freudian slip but can't come up with anything: not all slips are of a freudian nature and many are purely linquistic, capital letter etc.

[mayers] 15/3/2018 22:13

Thank you MEANWHILE for your heartfelt comments. I will also take to heart your very penetrating Everidge observation. Well-said and best wishes.

[bscuit] 15/3/2018 22:11

The Airbus comment suggests the existence of a "change of control capacity to terminate" clause in the GKN contract and that standing Brexit Airbus consider it would be a good opportunity to take the contract back to France.

Risks seem to be increasing. I think I'll bale out.

[gettingrichslow] 15/3/2018 22:10

Mayers, no idea what you are talking about frankly...have you been on the absinthe? You got my name wrong too - probably a Freudian slip given you are a student of psychodynamics?

[meanwhile] 15/3/2018 22:01

Thank you, Mayers, for this amusing summary of your observations during the last few weeks. You have analysed me really quite well, but with some errors, in my opinion anyway.
You show understanding and some compassion, which I have always striven to do myself on this board. If I may use a phrase from Dame Edna Everidge, I have used some harsh statements, but always in a 'caring sort of way'.

Have you seen the latest update of my wallet?

[mayers] 15/3/2018 21:40

I am reluctant to re-enter this vexed discussion. A few days ago I attempted to introduce a style of psychodynamic thinking which a number of contributors found difficult to accommodate. I think this may have been ambitious but it was ever such: it was an attempt to show that there is no gulf between our thinking in financial matters and our own personal lives. If there was hurt I sincerely apologise. I do ask you to refer to my original entry 2280.

gettingrichquick

You seem bemused, perhaps because the infinite variety of the world does not conform to narrow financial limits. I appreciate that you are not, as your name implies, just out for a fast buck but I do urge you to engage with wider aspects of involvement which this issue has highlighted.

Meanwhile

I am so sorry for your dilemma. It has been a long and harsh winter and in Cumbria, I understand, it must have been particularly difficult. I am not certain how my own mood would have coped with this. So too must be your faith now in a largely single investment which you must reasonably fear may suffer substantial devaluation. I cannot offer financial advice but I know for myself I would cash in with this pressure. If things are getting to you do not hesitate to seek advice such as your GP.

Brexitplus

With respect I do think your depiction of extra-financial activities comes across as just a bit self-satisfied. If my response has caused any hurt I sincerely apologise but would repeat that my attempt was to show that there is no divergence between apparent issues in our personal lives and how we respond to financial issues. It is a different way of thinking, not just nasty, but I am not surprised if it is not well received.

I offer the above as the Melrose bid has inadvertently raised all sorts of issues as how we conduct our lives, not just our financial dealings. Please do look at my comment 2280.

[bscuit] 15/3/2018 20:14

Meanwhile,

The inference behind your comment is that the MRO share price rose because of the possibility the offer might be pulled/field and yet the current share price is well above the level at which it was prior to the announcement of the bid. I am not conscious of any significant use on the Nortek front and the market is down over the same period, which makes arise as a result of failure/withdrawal look very odd?