Melrose Industries Share Discussion Threads

[brexitplus] 15/3/2018 09:45

Meanwhile. Thank you for your kind words.

Can I suggest that once you start thinking and talking about being old you are old. Personally I intend never to use the word and am currently working with young associates on a new internet based business idea for forward thinking people who intend to remain “young”.

[meanwhile] 15/3/2018 09:32

brexitplus,

So it's goodbye to you until 29th March. We've had some good discussions & arguments.
You say you'd like to work for Melrose. Well we're all probably too old for that now but there is a contribution to make. Why don't you write to them suggesting they replace their "Buy, improve, sell" strapline with one of yours used on this board, for example yesterday's "Every acquisition is based on hope. Things change."

I hope this isn't too harsh a judgement on you, but you should accept that some readers may have studied the stock market for 40 years, seen 4 market crashes, 2 bank collapses, Hanson, Tomkins & many other conglomerates rise & fall, and stop assuming we're all ignorant idiots.

[sogoesit] 15/3/2018 09:12

Indeed he certainly appeared to be... and probably still is but hopefully common business sense prevails on the whole board.
All 3 major anglo-dutch corporations have considered these changes of legal entities at one time or another but have either decided to remain split or chosen the UK.

IMV being euro based for a major global conglomerate is a big strategic bet! I hope it works out well for their shareholders.

Who knows, I'm just guessing. I don't own ULVR but do own RB and RDSB.

[semper vigilans] 15/3/2018 09:08

Fair enough, but I did think that Polman is a remoaner.

[sogoesit] 15/3/2018 09:05

Thanks, Semper,
The "spite over Brexit" has been nonsense created by the media and their own political agenda. Two of the divisions are to be HQ'd in UK with £1bn of additional R&D funding and one (continues) in Rotterdam.
The entity will be simplified into one legal one due to majority of shareholding being NL based.
Even Unilever realised that politicising business can be detrimental when it renegotiated the food pricing it instituted a few months back (Marmitegate ;-) ).

[semper vigilans] 15/3/2018 08:50

I like it Sogoesit.
ULVR only did it because they were ‘prodded’;.
Unfortunately, spite over Brexit has come into it too.

[sogoesit] 15/3/2018 08:46

Interesting corporate strategy changes at Unilever today:
- separate themselves into 3 distinct divisions with their own HQs;
- withdraw the centre to another separate entity in order to give autonomy to and "empower" the new divisions so as to drive operational performance.

I guess the counter argument to this might be that it is highly risky since they don't have any "experience" running their organisation like this new proposed structure?

Noteworthy that they didn't choose to sell themselves off.

[brexitplus] 15/3/2018 08:23

Dear All, what fun overnight. Don’t you sleep.

Melrose for me is an investment, simply that. I tend to invest in companies I would like to work for or with. I would love to be part of the Melrose team.

I have nothing more to say on the subject of GKN until 29th March or Melrose retire from the fight. Whether Melrose win or lose is not important to me. GKN will never be the same again, and in my view will be gone by 2020. Melrose, on the other hand will continue to make good deals and thrive.

But I am interested in discussing other shares with likeminded people.

[bukko] 15/3/2018 01:24

Getting
I don't agree either. The GKN reps gave specific replies to specific questions with considerable clarity I thought.Whereas the Amigos seemed to treat their appearance as a PR opportunity deflecting specific questions with stock phrases like, our record speaks for itself, we will at the appropriate time,we'll sack the GKN board, and free the management everything will be fine we've done it before and it works.

To their great credit Rachael Reeves, and the lady in the pink top on her right, were having none of it. Reeves booted them out of their comfort zone by pointing out that past performance did not guarantee future performance and gave them a grilling on lack of progress on pension fund and eventually got them to reveal their executive pay and bonuses. The lady in pink followed up likewise on a range of issues such as R&D, jobs and legally binding undertakings.Plenty of evasion and mumbling in reply to that lot.

Not a happy experience for the Amigos.But then it got a whole lot worse when their hubris encountered nemesis in the form of Anne Stevens announcing the deal with Dana. A humiliating experience for sure perpetrated by a board they had trashed as useless.

The hysteria evident in the hastily assembled RNS denouncing the Dana deal only pointed up their discomfort like being outwitted by a granny. Oh the irony of it ,but very entertaining.

[meanwhile] 15/3/2018 00:08

I think Minerve is correct here. When Melrose meet Airbus it's for them to try to reach some agreement, but it's hard to see what would suit Airbus. It's more than R&D spend, it is ethos and MRO have no past record here. They haven't needed it for selling wire rope, gas meters and cooker hoods.

[minerve] 14/3/2018 23:39

"Minerve, so Airbus can't rest its future on an 'alien ethos' but it can rest its future on a hastily put together top team who change tack every other day and come across as rabbits caught in headlights when fielding simple questions from a bunch of backbench MPs?"

That's just your opinion which I don't share.

[gettingrichslow] 14/3/2018 23:08

Minerve, so Airbus can't rest its future on an 'alien ethos' but it can rest its future on a hastily put together top team who change tack every other day and come across as rabbits caught in headlights when fielding simple questions from a bunch of backbench MPs?

[minerve] 14/3/2018 23:00

We are not talking about a commitment to R&D spend over 2-3 years. It is an ethos issue. Airbus cannot rest its future on alien ethos.

[gettingrichslow] 14/3/2018 22:56

Haven't Melrose just confirmed they wouldn't be cutting the R&D spend? But glad I'm not a GKN shareholder...

[meanwhile] 14/3/2018 22:34

"Every acquisition is based on hope." - brexitplus, today.
"There are no certainties only probabilities." - gettingrichslow, today.

Well let's hope this probability with Aerospace turns out all right.

[minerve] 14/3/2018 22:33

"The industry does not lend itself to shorter-term financial investment which naturally reduces R&D budgets and limits vital innovation.”

Absolutely. I wish others would understand this. It makes life ever so difficult for us all.

[minerve] 14/3/2018 22:27

GKN’s single biggest customer = Airbus

[pj0077] 14/3/2018 22:05

Game over re GKNMelrose win now have to look for another target

[minerve] 14/3/2018 21:44

"Airbus warns Melrose on potential takeover of GKN"

Time to call it a day folks and move on. This is just not right anymore.

Plenty of other opportunities for Melrose. This isn't the one. Will egos get in the way of doing the right thing and pulling the offer now.

[brexitplus] 14/3/2018 21:01

Getting... I suppose you are right. It’s very difficult to be precise in what you will do without the full information.

[gettingrichslow] 14/3/2018 20:46

B+, Reeves has to be seen to be challenging. She is one of the more sensible Labour MPs. She won't want a US company involved.

[brexitplus] 14/3/2018 19:59

Getting ... and Yertiz. Totally agree. In depth analysis is a waste of time. It’s probabilities, and the probabilities with Melrose are good.

In addition, Melrose have published their letters to Rachael Reeves on the website. She is reported as saying it’s not enough. Melrose say they can’t give total commitments without talking to GKN.

I’ve read the letters which look good to me. Reeves biased towards a GKN.

Dana down another 2%. Doesn’t seem much enthusiasm.

[gettingrichslow] 14/3/2018 19:16

Meanwhile, I'm with B+ and Yertiz on this. The leadership of MRO may well have more detailed plans than they've shared publically but (a) there's good reason for that and (b) you have to place trust in them to deliver if you are an investor. There are no certainties only probabilities. Almost all forecasts are wrong, which is why they are only forecasts, and that is true of anything - weather, football scores, election results etc. So I don't feel I need to see their numbers - I just need to feel confident that they have a strong track record and can cope with whatever new headwinds may come their way. If it was guaranteed somehow that they would deliver x revenue with y profit after z years then the share price would already reflect it and I may as well sell up now.

[yertiz] 14/3/2018 18:51

Just about sums it up for me, B+.

No point in looking at hour by hour/day to day share price falls and rises and making two add two make five or whatever you want to fit your expectations, Mr Market always has the last laugh. Just like trying to forecast the future - how many brokers estimates come unstuck within the timeframe they suggest? One helluva lot more than they like to say. My mantra is to be profitable 66% of the time (with long term investments only), and with my portfolio I'm happy to say thats more than being achieved.

Melrose has been good to me over the years, I have an expectation it will continue to do so - as does the Market - otherwise they would be unable to finance the debt and do what they do so well. The directors have credibility and a huge amount invested in the company - that too gives me satisfaction these guys know what they are about and adds to my peace of mind. If anything is likely to come crashing down to earth it is GKN in the current climate.

If the bid were to fail, Melrose shareholders are still in a win-win position. Nortek sales, Ergotron sales and most likely Brush at some point will all come good and be our next big earners, with the board looking out for the next faltering company. There's plenty enough of them!

One company I forgot to mention this morning is NMC Health as a long term hold. FTSE 100 company, acquisition and growth at the forefront, not much of a divi, but a focussed management operating in a fairly niche market. You might care to look at UDG too? Best of luck all.