Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 18/6/2018 11:00

Like you guys, I cannot believe that MML management have 'shot themselves in the foot' just as BT had brought them back to a sensible conservative style and with the service shaft so close to completion - at long last!

Have they learnt nothing over the last 7 years?

Very frustrating.
Chip

[rhuvaal2] 18/6/2018 10:25

Maybe MML will find itself taken out ?

[eintracht] 18/6/2018 08:59

After the complete disaster that MML became when PHB held the reigns I find it incredible that they would bring him back in any shape or form whatsoever. The fact that this was announced after hours on a Friday is a real "deja-vu" moment. This is a completely stupid move, shown by the severe share price drop today which cannot be attributed solely to the Gold price. After getting back on their feet and showing signs of re-gaining market confidence they have destroyed it in one crazy decision / announcement. I'm well p*ssed off.

[tightfist] 18/6/2018 08:49

Hi RT,

Thanks, like myself you obviously have tracked MML for several years and thought about what may be going on behind the scenes..... To hold MML you need to be paranoid?!

Last night's share price drop IMO was larger than expected but some of the fall is due to PoG?

The timing is pretty imminent/short and I wonder if BT "retirement" is triggered by disagreement over the 2019 Production Guidance that is (unpublished? and) due any day?

I posted some pretty scathing perceptions of Teo a couple of years ago, but I finally met the man at Pro-Active Mayfair in Autumn 2016 and made SOME sense of him. The RG departure was just one such event until I saw later that it had timed-out in the Perth Tribunal, so I guess his hands were tied by the legal beagles?

The contrast between arch-conservative BT and swash-buckling RG is notable; Roy Daniel had some well-chosen words to say about RG's traits too.

The positive is that DMcG is a well-known quantity to Teo and presumably has a willingness to undertake the travel regime. If you are an optimist maybe the new CEO appointment opens the possibility of re-engaging with the global investor/mining community although I don't perceive that Teo gets that at all, which is partly why I was so surprised by the Cambodian initiative.

IMHO the market will create a Buying opportunity shortly - but I have been wrong many times before, especially with MML!

Cheers, tightfist

[roguetreader] 17/6/2018 10:42

Cheers Tightfist
I wouldn't necessarily disagree with any of your points above and I have probably overlooked and to some degree underestimated DMcG's contribution.

To a large degree my frustrations are what I consider to be the bad timing of BT's 'retirement'and my paranoia borne over the last 4- 5 years that something else is going on behind the scenes. Just as the ducks look to be lined up for strong progress uncertainty is introduced again.

My problem with Teo has been IMO the lack of transparency with shareholders (no announcement was ever made clarifying RG's position)and the annoying policy of always issuing what could be seen as 'bad news' after hour's on Fridays. These may seem to be minor in the scheme of things, but they do impact sgareholder confidence in management, where I believe confidence is key.

Wholly agree regarding the split of the COO & CEO roles. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts tonight.
RT

[tightfist] 17/6/2018 09:13

Hi RT,

The issue I had with PH-B was IIRC his unwillingness to make measurable commitments; (I don't hold against him the dilutive placing to preserve a reasonable cash balance early in the investment phase). My memory was that the last straw was when he finally fell on his sword after the SAG mill commissioning debacle (RG suggested it was a consequence of the mill/controller not being adequately protected against the weather?!).

IIRC BT started early in his tenure(Oz newspaper article) by declaring Co-O had 150kOk/$800 potential - my guess is that Teo reined him in; I vividly remember his Chinese family culture message (along the lines of "my word is my bond") at Pro-Active
in Autumn 2016.

So I have come to believe that BT has become a likeable under-commit, over-deliver CEO; and there have been two surprise positive announcements in the last few months (production guidance increase, still-borne Cambodian venture).

The progress on E15 has been slow and painstaking but eventually it will soon be delivered and DMcG presumably deserves the credit for that. IIRC he has absorbed substantial scope-creep (increased depth and ore haulage capability) along the way, although cost is now not talked about....).

I can appreciate the RG vs BT contrast. If you are a VERY patient investor the Teo culture works? It looks as though the COO and CEO role split is being re-established which IMO is good news for the investor community.

Cheers, tightfist

[roguetreader] 15/6/2018 11:53

To be an optimist for a moment.

I thought PHB was a poor CEO. However, he did take on the role when, the Gold price started spiralling down and MML suffered a number of technical and operational problems some of which culminated in them recognising the need for the E15 shaft.

PHB is coming on as a non exec 'NOT' (thankfully) as temporary CEO. PHB does have 3 years plus experience and knowledge of the COO mine, where McGowan has only been at MML since Feb 2017. So my take on it is that PHB will be there to support McGowan in the transition period in managing the mine.

RT

[tightfist] 15/6/2018 10:47

Hi RT,

I totally agree with your take on the latest news. Teo soon reined-in BT's commitments but you must agree that BT's style is finally IMO on the cusp of delivering - and presumably Teo brought him in. Teo may not be quite so quick on the next CEO appointment....

As for the resurrection of PH-B I am speechless - I don't have a good word to say about him and performance on his his last shift.

Dave McGowan is an unknown quantity to us but presumably is up for the travel and a known quantity - may be the best bit of pretty dodgy news day IMO.

Cheers, tightfist

[roguetreader] 15/6/2018 10:01

As a follow up to the news today and a revisit to my previous post on BT presenting. On YouTube in addition to the interview as shown in the link from Speedsgh there is another YouTube 'presentation' from BT Published 15/05 (I think), which although doesn't say anything new is worth the watch. I can't get a direct link to it, so you'll need to search YouTube.

Personally, I'm totally bemused by today's announcement, but IMO it leaves a significantly weakened management team at a critical time. I don't trust Teo and PHB was a poor CEO IMO so I cannot see his return as positive no matter what the reasoning . I hope we get some further clarification soon, but with Teo's track record I think it unlikely. That said, to be balanced Teo did bring in BT who to date has been enormously positive over the last two years. Let's hope things will be different this time!!

[eintracht] 15/6/2018 08:41

Ah, I see we are back to the old after close Friday afternoon sh*te announcements. What a disaster.

[speedsgh] 15/6/2018 08:27

What on earth! I never cease to be amazed by Medusa. It does make one question the veracity of the reason given for BD's retirement.

Board Changes -

[roguetreader] 15/6/2018 07:56

Latest RNS states BT is retiring as of July 6th, Teo taking over temporarily and PHB returning as non exec. Not good news.
RT

[tightfist] 07/6/2018 11:36

Hi Noirua,

Thanks, A$2 is the natural resistance area once A$1 is behind us. Thinking optimistically A$2 in the Autumn of 2019 sounds good IMO; by then increased 2019 production should have been committed and delivered - and the market has grown in confidence that (130kOz?) in 2020 can be delivered with appropriate Q1 trajectory [cost and production] reported?

Of course, PoG and/or Phillipines politics could make a nonsense of all of that - either way! What are your thoughts on timing/events?


Cheers, tightfist

[noirua] 07/6/2018 08:13

On the long term chart the first target is $2.00

[deka1] 05/6/2018 21:00

Aye Haughton, on over half a mil vol which is high for the stock now.

[haughtonhoney] 05/6/2018 06:18

Another good rise overnight.

[tightfist] 04/6/2018 09:42

Hi,

Thanks for the link to Boyd in HK; strangely hesitant compared with what I have seen? But OK message in itself.

I was interested in the comment re: Hot Copper and VectorVest; yet to take a look at HC for context. I was a subscriber to VV for a couple of years but grew tired of their obscure Black Box approach and the Americanism too.... Tried a bit of back-testing their timing calls and wasn't impressed either.

I took a look at MML two months ago on my favourite tool of Stockopedia and found that it then had a StockRank of 96/100 and V Q M scores of 73, 88, 94 respectively. I guess M will have improved since, but V will be adverse. As I posted late last year IMHO I am looking for A$2 by the end of 2019, then I will be looking to reduce.


Onwards and upwards! Cheers, Roger

[speedsgh] 04/6/2018 09:15

Thanks rogue...

Interview: Boyd Timler - Medusa - 121 Mining Investment Hong Kong 2018

[roguetreader] 04/6/2018 08:35

For Anyone who is interested there is a YouTube video of Boyd Timler presenting in Hong Kong in April. There is no direct browser link so you'll need to search on 'Boyd Timler' in YouTube. Not a lot on it that isn't already known but worth the watch IMO.
RT

[deka1] 02/6/2018 13:50

cheers eintracht , I know how you feel, good luck to all.

[eintracht] 01/6/2018 21:55

Somebody has posted a BUY recommendation rom VECTORVEST (see HotCopper posting) that may have caused the sudden spike. Lets see if there is a fall off next week. We've been treading water for a long, long time now. Surely, we are due for a steady increase in share price I'm finally out once it reaches $1. Just had enough, its been 15 years of pain for me !!!!

[deka1] 01/6/2018 10:30

Cant see anything on HC.

[deka1] 01/6/2018 08:32

thanks for your take TF.

[tightfist] 01/6/2018 08:13

Hi deka,

I saw the bump in the last hour but cannot see any news either - PoG is still around $1,300. Is there anything on Hot Copper?

We have been in locked in a consolidation phase for the last 11 weeks - then we went past 58c and whoosh!

We are 5 months from Q1 production and I will be looking for a separate E15 Shaft commissioning RNS before then. Maybe credibility is finally being won and the fundamental prospects are starting to shine through? Just a silly thought....

Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 01/6/2018 07:02

Mornin all, good bump up last night ,cant see any news out , anyone know anything ?